Ali Akbar Rosady
As Week 10 of the NFL season unfolds, fantasy football managers are navigating critical lineup decisions, informed by detailed projections, win probabilities, and newly integrated Shadow Reports. This comprehensive guide, leveraging advanced play-by-play data, aims to assist participants in season-long leagues and daily fantasy sports with crucial insights for sit/start decisions, waiver wire considerations, and roster optimization. The analysis is primarily tailored for 12-team PPR leagues utilizing standard scoring and lineup configurations, encompassing one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one flex position, one kicker, and one defense/special teams unit. Matchup assessments are derived from a proprietary metric that evaluates both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points conceded by opposing defenses to specific positions throughout the current season. Projections and rankings are subject to continuous updates leading up to each game’s kickoff, ensuring the most current information for fantasy participants.
The Week 10 slate commenced with the Las Vegas Raiders facing the Denver Broncos on Thursday. The remaining matchups present a variety of strategic considerations for fantasy managers.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL) @ Indianapolis Colts (IND)
Related News :
- UFC 320 Aftermath: Pereira’s Dominant Return, Dvalishvili’s Bantamweight Claim, and Prochazka’s Resurgence Pave Way for Strategic Matchups
- NFL Week 9 Delivers Unprecedented Drama as Fan-Voted ‘Himmy’ Award Crowns Top Individual Performances
- UFC 320 fight card: Start time, where to watch and live stream tonight
- Tom Aspinall Shifts Focus to Ciryl Gane, Eager to Define His Undisputed Reign Beyond Jon Jones Saga.
- UFC 321: Aspinall-Gane Heavyweight Clash Headlines Stacked Card in Title Unification’s Wake
Projected Score: Colts 29, Falcons 20
Lineup Locks: Daniel Jones (NYG QB, error in original content, likely refers to a QB for ATL/IND or a general lock), Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), Bijan Robinson (ATL RB), Drake London (ATL WR), Michael Pittman Jr. (IND WR), Tyler Warren (TE, team not specified), Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL TE).
Fantasy Analysis: Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is identified as a secure starter for Week 10. This designation is supported by his recent increase in target volume, with seven or more targets in the last three contests, positioning him among the top five tight ends in routes run, target share, targets, and receptions. Despite limited goal-line opportunities (one touchdown and one end zone target), Pitts ranks 11th in fantasy points per game at the position. He has recorded 13 or more fantasy points in three of his last five outings. Pitts faces a favorable matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks among the bottom five in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Indianapolis has permitted a touchdown and 19 or more fantasy points to tight ends in four consecutive weeks, including performances exceeding 20 points by Oronde Gadsden II and Trey McBride.
Shadow Report: Colts cornerback Jaylon Jones made his 2025 debut in Week 9, successfully shadowing Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf. Jones aligned opposite Metcalf on 22 of his 33 routes, including 21 of 23 perimeter routes. Metcalf was limited to 6 receiving yards on four targets, resulting in 2.6 fantasy points. There is a possibility that Jones will shadow Falcons wide receiver Drake London in Week 10, especially as Sauce Gardner integrates into the Colts’ defensive scheme. Regardless, London is expected to face a challenging assignment against Indianapolis’ evolving perimeter cornerback situation. While the Colts have allowed the second-most receptions and eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, recent defensive improvements suggest a tougher matchup for London and Darnell Mooney.
Over/under: 49.3 (7th highest)
Win probability: Colts 80% (3rd highest)
New York Giants (NYG) @ Chicago Bears (CHI)
Projected Score: Bears 28, Giants 27
Lineup Locks: Jaxson Dart (QB, team not specified), D’Andre Swift (CHI RB), Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG WR), Rome Odunze (CHI WR).
Fantasy Analysis: In the New York Giants’ first full game without running back Cam Skattebo, the backfield responsibilities were nearly evenly split between Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. Singletary unexpectedly led in carries, logging eight carries and two targets on 31 snaps (16 routes), while Tracy recorded five carries and four targets on 25 snaps (14 routes). Although Tracy was anticipated to assume the lead back role, Singletary’s superior performance (51 yards to Tracy’s 37) suggests a continued shared workload. Week 10 presents a favorable matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that allows 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs, ranking fifth-highest in the league. Both Tracy and Singletary are viable flex options, with Tracy holding a slight preference.
Shadow Report (Chicago WRs): If New York Giants cornerback Paulson Adebo returns from injury in Week 10, he is a candidate to shadow Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. Adebo previously shadowed Terry McLaurin in Week 1 (McLaurin scored 4.7 fantasy points), A.J. Brown in Week 6 (14.0 fantasy points), and Courtland Sutton in Week 7 prior to Adebo’s injury exit (Sutton had 8.9 fantasy points). The Giants’ pass defense continues to struggle against wide receivers, ranking among the top seven in receptions, yards, and fantasy points allowed. While Odunze’s ceiling might be constrained by shadow coverage, he remains a fantasy starter. Should Adebo and fellow cornerback Cor’Dale Flott remain sidelined, the matchup would become significantly more advantageous for the entire Chicago passing game.
Shadow Report (Giants WRs): New York Giants wide receivers receive an upgrade against a Chicago pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. Following a performance where three Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers each exceeded 17 fantasy points, the Bears have now conceded 13 touchdowns (second-most) and 9.8 yards per target (second-highest) to wideouts. Chicago remains significantly shorthanded at cornerback, with Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon on injured reserve. This situation creates a highly favorable matchup for Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Ray-Ray McCloud III against a secondary featuring Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, Nick McCloud, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Over/under: 55.2 (Highest)
Win probability: Bears 56% (11th highest)
Buffalo Bills (BUF) @ Miami Dolphins (MIA)
Projected Score: Bills 30, Dolphins 20
Lineup Locks: Josh Allen (BUF QB), De’Von Achane (MIA RB), James Cook III (BUF RB), Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR).
Fantasy Analysis: Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid continues to defy statistical expectations. Despite playing only 44% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps and not exceeding six targets in any single game, he ranks eighth among tight ends in fantasy points, largely due to four touchdowns. Kincaid’s production has shown volatility, with four performances above 14.8 fantasy points contrasted by three below 10 points. He has achieved over 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games, though a 1-reception, 23-yard, 0-touchdown line in Week 8 demonstrates his inconsistency. Kincaid’s efficiency (12.5 yards per target) and touchdown rate (four touchdowns versus an expected 1.6) are statistically unsustainable, and his current top-10 production in yardage and touchdowns is unlikely to persist given his 25th-place ranking in targets among tight ends. His role in Buffalo’s high-scoring offense keeps him in the TE1 discussion, but he is considered a fringe starter. He holds additional appeal this week against a Miami defense he previously recorded a 5-reception, 66-yard, 1-touchdown line against in Week 3.
Shadow Report: Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford is a potential candidate to shadow Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle this week. Benford has consistently shadowed opposing top receivers throughout the season, including Tyreek Hill in their Week 3 encounter. With Hill sidelined for the season, Waddle assumes the clear role as Miami’s primary wideout. Buffalo’s pass defense has not been exceptionally effective against wide receivers; both Waddle (14.9 fantasy points) and Hill (15.9 fantasy points) delivered solid fantasy performances in their initial meeting. Given that wide receivers shadowed by Benford have averaged a strong 16.9 fantasy points per game, Waddle is considered a viable starter.
Over/under: 50.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 84% (2nd highest)
Baltimore Ravens (BAL) @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN)
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Vikings 23
Lineup Locks: Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), Derrick Henry (BAL RB), Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), Zay Flowers (BAL WR), Jordan Addison (MIN WR).
Fantasy Analysis: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews scored two touchdowns in quarterback Lamar Jackson’s return from injury last week, contributing to a 16.6 fantasy point performance. However, this production was achieved on only three targets. Andrews has now received three or fewer targets in five of eight games this season, averaging a low 4.1 targets per game. He has also failed to reach 35 receiving yards in all but one contest. Andrews is not demonstrating the same fantasy dominance as prior to 2024 and, similar to last season, his fantasy value is heavily reliant on scoring touchdowns, positioning him as a fringe TE1. He does garner additional appeal this week against a Minnesota Vikings defense that has allowed 18 or more fantasy points to tight ends such as Oronde Gadsden II and Sam LaPorta in the last two weeks.
Shadow Report: Baltimore Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins is a candidate to shadow Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson this week. Wiggins, Baltimore’s top perimeter cornerback, has previously shadowed Nico Collins in Week 5, Davante Adams full-time in Week 6, and partially shadowed Rome Odunze and Jaylen Waddle over the past two weeks. These four receivers averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game against the Ravens, with three exceeding 14 points. While Baltimore’s defense has shown improvement, Jefferson remains a secure starter even with potential shadow coverage from Wiggins.
Over/under: 50.5 (5th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 67% (9th highest)
Cleveland Browns (CLE) @ New York Jets (NYJ)
Projected Score: Browns 19, Jets 18
Lineup Locks: Quinshon Judkins (RB, team not specified), Breece Hall (NYJ RB), Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR).
Fantasy Analysis: In the Cleveland Browns’ last game (Week 8), tight end Harold Fannin Jr. recorded a 6-reception, 62-yard, 1-touchdown performance on eight targets, resulting in a career-high 18.4 fantasy points. Fannin has exceeded 15 fantasy points in two of his last three games, although he has been below 11.5 points in five of his last seven. Fannin’s recent success coincided with the absence of David Njoku and Cedric Tillman, both of whom are anticipated to play in Week 10. Fannin’s 18.6% target share and strong play are sufficient to maintain his position in the TE1 discussion, but with Njoku’s return and the Browns’ ongoing offensive efficiency issues, the rookie carries inherent risk.
Shadow Report: The New York Jets’ trade of cornerback Sauce Gardner is a significant development, as Gardner frequently shadowed opponents’ top receivers, often creating opportunities for secondary receivers against the Jets. Even with Gardner’s strong play, the Jets have allowed the fourth-highest Expected Points Added (EPA) against the pass. Cleveland wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who would likely have faced shadow coverage from Gardner, and Cedric Tillman (if he returns from injured reserve) receive an upgrade in this matchup. However, Jeudy has yet to record a touchdown or exceed 11.6 fantasy points in any game this season. In his most recent outing, he was held without a single reception while being shadowed by Christian Gonzalez. Despite the improved matchup, Jeudy is best considered a bench option.
Over/under: 37.4 (Lowest)
Win probability: Browns 51% (Lowest)
New England Patriots (NE) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB)
Projected Score: Patriots 25, Buccaneers 23
Lineup Locks: Drake Maye (NE QB), Bucky Irving (TB RB), Emeka Egbuka (NE WR), Stefon Diggs (TB WR).
Fantasy Analysis: With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined in Week 9, rookie TreVeyon Henderson assumed the lead back role for the New England Patriots. Henderson played 51 snaps (75% of offensive snaps), accumulating 14 carries and six targets. Terrell Jennings, the only other running back to see action, added 11 carries (including one touchdown) and one target on 17 snaps. Henderson performed capably, setting career highs in touches (18), yards (87), and fantasy points (12.7). While he has only found the end zone once in nine games, he has exceeded 75 total yards in consecutive contests. If Stevenson returns this week, Henderson’s role would diminish to a bench option. However, if Stevenson remains out, Henderson would be a viable RB2 against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, with a significant portion of that damage occurring in the passing game, which aligns with Henderson’s strengths.
Shadow Report: New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez is a candidate to shadow Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka this week. Gonzalez, a standout corner, previously shadowed Jerry Jeudy in Week 8 (Jeudy recorded zero catches) and Drake London in Week 9 before Gonzalez left with an injury. London subsequently recorded 25.5 fantasy points, although two of his touchdowns were scored against Marcus Jones. While London’s significant performance offers some optimism for Egbuka, it is important to note that this was the first instance this season of a receiver reaching 18 fantasy points against New England. Egbuka, similar to London, will likely move into the slot at times, avoiding full-time coverage from Gonzalez. Egbuka remains on the WR1 radar.
Over/under: 48.2 (8th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 56% (12th highest)
New Orleans Saints (NO) @ Carolina Panthers (CAR)
Projected Score: Panthers 23, Saints 16
Lineup Locks: Rico Dowdle (CAR RB), Chris Olave (NO WR), Tetairoa McMillan (CAR WR).
Fantasy Analysis: A clear shift in the Carolina Panthers’ backfield hierarchy occurred in Week 9. After two consecutive weeks sharing duties, running back Rico Dowdle emerged as the feature back, logging 25 carries and three targets on 40 snaps. Chuba Hubbard’s workload, conversely, was reduced to five carries and one target on 11 snaps. Despite facing a challenging Green Bay Packers run defense, Dowdle amassed 130 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, in addition to 11 yards on three targets. Dowdle has now exceeded 28 fantasy points in his last three games as Carolina’s lead back. He is now considered a secure starter and faces a favorable Week 10 matchup against a New Orleans Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing running backs. Hubbard is a candidate to be dropped from fantasy rosters, though he retains value as an insurance stash.
Over/under: 38.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 75% (5th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC) @ Houston Texans (HOU)
Projected Score: Texans 23, Jaguars 19
Lineup Locks: Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC RB), Nico Collins (HOU WR).
Shadow Report: Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is expected to shadow Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley this week. In their Week 3 encounter, Stingley shadowed Ridley on all five of his perimeter routes before exiting with an injury. Kamari Lassiter then assumed shadow coverage on Ridley’s final 19 perimeter routes. Ridley was effectively contained, totaling 55 yards on six targets. Stingley has also shadowed Davante Adams (7.2 fantasy points), Mike Evans (10.6 fantasy points), and Courtland Sutton (10.0 fantasy points). This presents a challenging assignment not only for Ridley but for the entire Jaguars wide receiver corps, including newcomer Jakobi Meyers. Houston’s pass defense has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points, the lowest catch rate (54%), and only four touchdowns to wide receivers. Ridley, who has been held to 12.0 or fewer fantasy points in seven of eight games and received only five targets last week, is best viewed as a WR3.
Over/under: 42.2 (12th highest)
Win probability: Texans 71% (6th highest)
Arizona Cardinals (ARI) @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA)
Projected Score: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 21
Lineup Locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR), Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), Trey McBride (ARI TE).
Fantasy Analysis: The Seattle Seahawks implemented a modified running back deployment after their Week 8 bye. Kenneth Walker III played a season-high 54% of offensive snaps in Week 9, accumulating 11 carries and two targets. This contrasted with Zach Charbonnet’s workload of eight carries and one target on 18 snaps, despite Charbonnet having out-snapped Walker in five of their previous six shared games this season. Despite the increased snap share, Walker failed to reach 10 fantasy points for the fourth consecutive game and has not scored a touchdown since Week 3. Charbonnet, conversely, has five touchdowns in seven games but is averaging 2.9 yards per carry and has only exceeded 12.4 fantasy points once. Walker remains the preferred fantasy option between the two, though he is considered a fringe RB2.
Over/under: 46.9 (10th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 70% (7th highest)
Los Angeles Rams (LAR) @ San Francisco 49ers (SF)
Projected Score: Rams 28, 49ers 22
Lineup Locks: Christian McCaffrey (SF RB), Kyren Williams (LAR RB), Puka Nacua (LAR WR), Davante Adams (SF WR, error in original content, likely refers to a 49ers WR), Jauan Jennings (SF WR), George Kittle (SF TE).
Fantasy Analysis: San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings is nearing a return to previous production levels. He recorded a 4-reception, 41-yard, 1-touchdown line in Week 9, with his 14.1 fantasy points representing his highest total since Week 2 (19.9 points). While Jennings has not surpassed 45 receiving yards in a game since that Week 2 performance, he has maintained a healthy 24.7% target share over his last three outings, nearly identical to his 24.9% share when he ranked as the No. 24 scoring wide receiver last season. Jennings is a viable WR2/3 option this week, with potential for increased production upon Brock Purdy’s return at quarterback.
Over/under: 49.7 (6th highest)
Win probability: Rams 70% (8th highest)
Detroit Lions (DET) @ Washington Commanders (WAS)
Projected Score: Lions 29, Commanders 22
Lineup Locks: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB), David Montgomery (DET RB), Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR), Deebo Samuel (WAS WR, error in original content, likely refers to a Commanders WR), Sam LaPorta (DET TE).
Fantasy Analysis: With Jayden Daniels sidelined for the foreseeable future, Marcus Mariota will serve as the Washington Commanders’ starting quarterback. Mariota, a dual-threat quarterback, has played over half the offensive snaps in five games since joining Washington, averaging a healthy 18.7 fantasy points per game in those contests. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of those games and rushed for at least 20 yards in all five (averaging 35.6 rushing yards). Mariota’s play makes him a viable streaming option in favorable matchups, though Week 10 presents a less ideal scenario against a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest EPA against the pass and ranks among the top five in interceptions and sacks. Daniels’ absence necessitates a downgrade for the Washington offense, particularly given that no Commanders skill player has averaged more than 12.5 fantasy points per game during Mariota’s three 2025 starts. Deebo Samuel is identified as the only secure starter, primarily due to Terry McLaurin’s continued absence.
Shadow Report: The Washington Commanders’ defense has allowed the second-most receiving yards, sixth-most fantasy points, and 11 touchdowns (seventh-most) to wide receivers, even before the season-ending torn ACL injury to Marshon Lattimore (error in original content, Lattimore is a Saints CB). Washington’s struggling pass defense is advantageous for the Detroit Lions’ passing game. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are significantly upgraded in this matchup against a Commanders secondary featuring Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones, and Trey Amos.
Over/under: 51 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Lions 75% (4th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) @ Los Angeles Chargers (LAC)
Projected Score: Chargers 26, Steelers 22
Lineup Locks: Justin Herbert (LAC QB), Jaylen Warren (PIT RB), Ladd McConkey (LAC WR), DK Metcalf (PIT WR, error in original content, likely refers to a Steelers WR), Oronde Gadsden II (LAC TE).
Fantasy Analysis: Wide receiver DK Metcalf recorded a season-low 2.6 fantasy points in Week 9, matching a season-low of four targets. Metcalf has faced shadow coverage in four games this season, struggling in each instance: 12.3 points in Week 1 (Sauce Gardner), 12.2 points in Week 3 (Carlton Davis III), 8.0 points in Week 7 (DJ Turner), and 2.6 points in Week 8 (Jaylon Jones). These shadowed games account for half of Metcalf’s season, though he has exceeded 16 fantasy points in three of his other four outings, with the exception being a challenging matchup against Seattle. While Metcalf may not face shadow coverage this week, he is set to encounter a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed only four touchdowns and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Metcalf’s production has been overly reliant on touchdowns (he ranks 39th among receivers in targets but seventh in touchdowns), resulting in high variance. He is considered a fringe WR2 against the Chargers.
Shadow Report: Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers receive an upgrade against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points to wide receivers. Pittsburgh has conceded over 50 fantasy points to opposing wide receiver groups in three of its last five games, including 55.4 points to the Colts in Week 9. Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston are all expected to see a boost in volume and production in Week 10 and are considered viable fantasy starters.
Over/under: 48 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 65% (10th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles (PHI) @ Green Bay Packers (GB)
Projected Score: Eagles 26, Packers 26
Lineup Locks: Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), Josh Jacobs (PHI RB, error in original content, likely refers to an Eagles RB), Saquon Barkley (PHI RB), A.J. Brown (PHI WR), DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), Romeo Doubs (GB WR), Dallas Goedert (PHI TE).
Fantasy Analysis: Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (knee) is sidelined for the remainder of the season, which will result in an expanded role for Luke Musgrave, who was selected one round ahead of Kraft in the 2023 NFL Draft. Following Kraft’s early exit in Week 9, Musgrave stepped in and played 48% of the offensive snaps, his highest usage since Week 3 of his rookie season. He was targeted three times, catching all three for 34 yards. Musgrave has not recorded double-digit fantasy points in any game since his rookie season and, even with a larger role, is unlikely to consistently produce TE1 numbers. While he represents a speculative bench addition, particularly for those who rostered Kraft, he is not recommended for Week 10 lineups against an Eagles defense that has allowed only one touchdown, the third-fewest fantasy points, and a league-low 4.8 yards per target to tight ends.
Over/under: 51.6 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Eagles 52% (13th highest)
💬 Tinggalkan Komentar dengan Facebook
Author Profile
Latest entries
MMANovember 9, 2025Falcons Edge Colts in Berlin Thriller, London’s Crucial Touchdown Secures Week 10 Victory
MMANovember 9, 2025Andrei Arlovski Ventures into Influencer Boxing with Misfits Debut, Expresses Strong Interest in Jake Paul Bout.
MMANovember 9, 2025NFL Week 10: Crucial Matchups, Emerging Trends, and Quarterback Dynamics Set Stage for Sunday Slate
MMANovember 9, 2025Bonfim Delivers Controversial Knockout Victory Over Brown at UFC Vegas 111 Main Event
Anshari Taslim
rifan muazin
alina maya
Jonas Leo