NFL 2025 Playoff Landscape: ESPN Analytics Categorizes All 32 Teams Across Nine Tiers as Second Half Intensifies

As the 2025 NFL season officially crosses its halfway mark on November 9, 2025, at 11:50 PM ET, the playoff picture is rapidly taking shape. While traditional standings offer a snapshot of a team’s postseason trajectory, a comprehensive analysis requires delving deeper into underlying metrics. Factors such as team strength, injury status, critical tiebreakers, and future strength of schedule can significantly influence a team’s odds, aspects not immediately visible in win-loss records. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder has meticulously evaluated all 32 NFL teams, categorizing them into nine distinct tiers based on their playoff aspirations, ranging from legitimate Super Bowl contenders to those already shifting focus to the 2026 season. These tiers are informed by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), current betting lines, detailed performance metrics, health reports, and expert insight. Walder’s rankings delineate the overall strength of each tier, with teams ordered within them. Additionally, ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters have provided specific, tangible goals for their respective teams as the crucial second half of the season unfolds, covering objectives from securing top playoff seeds to evaluating quarterback futures. All statistical rankings referenced are current through the conclusion of Sunday’s late afternoon games, with playoff chances derived from FPI projections.

Tier 1: True Super Bowl Contenders

The Philadelphia Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champions, are firmly positioned to win their division again, holding a 96.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 96.2% chance to clinch the NFC East. Their pursuit of the Super Bowl stands at 18.8%. The team reinforced its roster at the trade deadline, acquiring edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and third corner Michael Carter II to address identified weaknesses. Despite a less dominant offensive line this season, the Eagles possess the talent to make another deep playoff run. Their primary objective for the second half of the season is to secure the top seed in the NFC, a tight race where the top seven teams are separated by a single game. Key matchups against the Packers and Lions in the coming weeks could provide crucial breathing room.

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The Los Angeles Rams have emerged as a formidable force, boasting a 7-2 record and a 95.2% chance of reaching the playoffs, with a 22.2% Super Bowl probability. Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s health and strong performance, coupled with wide receiver Puka Nacua’s Offensive Player of the Year-caliber season, have propelled their offense. The defense also ranks fourth in EPA per play. Following a decisive victory over the 49ers, the Rams are virtually guaranteed a postseason berth. Their tangible goal is to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, mitigating the challenges of past postseason exits in hostile environments. Despite losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Eagles, upcoming games against NFC contenders like the Seahawks (Weeks 11, 16), Buccaneers (Week 12), and Lions (Week 15) offer opportunities to improve their seeding.

The Buffalo Bills, with a 6-3 record, maintain an 87.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 12.4% chance to reach the Super Bowl. Quarterback Josh Allen’s season has been imperfect, reflected in his 16th QBR ranking. A surprising loss to the Dolphins widened their AFC East deficit to 1.5 games behind the Patriots, impacting their bid for home-field advantage. While questions persist about their struggling run defense, Allen’s leadership positions the Bills as Super Bowl favorites once they enter the playoffs. Their ambitious second-half goal is to earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed, a feat that requires overcoming injuries, offensive inefficiencies, and first surpassing the Patriots in a critical Week 15 matchup.

The Seattle Seahawks, currently 7-2, are projected with a 91.7% chance to make the playoffs and an 11.3% chance for the Super Bowl. Quarterback Sam Darnold has defied critics, performing significantly better than in previous seasons, contributing to the Seahawks ranking third in EPA per dropback. Consecutive blowout victories have solidified their status as both a near-certain playoff team and a Super Bowl contender. Seattle’s focus for the remainder of the season is to ignite their rushing attack. Despite having one of the NFL’s highest-scoring offenses, their run game ranks 28th in yards per carry (3.8) due to facing the most eight-plus defender boxes. The recent acquisition of speedy receiver Rashid Shaheed is expected to alleviate defensive crowding and open up running lanes.

Tier 2: Super Bowl Contenders… If They Make the Playoffs

The Kansas City Chiefs, with a 5-4 record, hold a 75.8% chance of making the playoffs and a substantial 18.9% chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Unlike last season’s strong record masking underlying metrics, the 2025 Chiefs, despite a modest record, have played at a higher play-to-play level, ranking second in EPA per play (0.14) due to a "renaissance season" from Patrick Mahomes. Their playoff spot is not yet a certainty, and a No. 1 seed appears distant. Their tangible second-half goal is to improve their pass rush around Chris Jones. The team’s pass rush win rate ranks 21st at 35.6%, necessitating better performance from edge rushers George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu, and rookie Ashton Gillotte.

The Detroit Lions, currently 6-3, have an 83.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 14.8% chance at the Super Bowl. Their solid record and the competitive NFC North prevent them from being a lock. Despite a recent loss to the Vikings, the Lions rank fourth in offensive EPA per play and seventh on defense. They are considered one of the NFC’s most dangerous playoff teams if they secure a spot. The Lions’ tangible second-half goal is to develop a consistent offensive identity under first-year offensive coordinator John Morton. While explosive at times, the team struggles with efficiency, especially during a demanding November schedule.

The Green Bay Packers, standing at 5-2-1, possess an 80.1% chance for the playoffs and an 11.4% chance for the Super Bowl. Despite their record, Walder suggests they have not yet reached their full potential. Their offense has been highly efficient on designed pass plays (No. 1 in EPA per dropback), and the defense, bolstered by Micah Parsons, has a higher pass rush ceiling. Securing a postseason berth is the immediate challenge, beginning with a significant Monday night game against the Eagles. Their second-half goal is to find another playmaker for quarterback Jordan Love, especially after the season-ending knee injury to tight end Tucker Kraft. The return of Christian Watson from an ACL injury and Jayden Reed from foot surgery and a broken collarbone offers potential relief.

The Baltimore Ravens, at 4-5, face a more uncertain playoff path with a 64.1% chance, but a 9.5% Super Bowl chance if they qualify. A brutal 1-5 start, including a Week 1 collapse and a Lamar Jackson injury, raised doubts. However, a post-bye resurgence has offered a glimpse of their potential. Fortified by a winnable AFC North, the Ravens are expected to make a strong run if Jackson remains healthy. His 21-9 career record against AFC North opponents underscores his ability to lead the division. Their tangible goal is to win a third consecutive AFC North title.

Tier 3: (Almost) Playoff Locks

The Indianapolis Colts, with an impressive 8-2 record, have a 95.4% chance to make the playoffs and an 86.1% chance to win the AFC South, with a 20.9% Super Bowl probability. Their offense ranks first in EPA per play, driven by an elite running attack and quarterback Daniel Jones’ career-best performance. The acquisition of Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline further bolsters their formidable cornerback group. Despite analytical strength, Walder expresses lingering skepticism regarding Jones’ past performance. The Colts’ second-half goal is to ensure their defense is healthy and performing at a level capable of challenging top quarterbacks in January. While fourth in the NFL with 29 sacks, their third-down defense ranks 26th, an area requiring significant improvement for a Super Bowl push.

The New England Patriots, also 8-2, have a 94.7% chance for the playoffs and a 70.6% chance to win the AFC East, with a 9.5% Super Bowl chance. Quarterback Drake Maye’s breakout, Stefon Diggs’ strong return from injury, robust run defense, and surprising sack production from Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson have contributed to their success. Benefiting from the league’s easiest schedule to date, the Patriots secured a crucial win against the Buccaneers. The true test awaits in the postseason, which they are almost guaranteed to reach. Their tangible goal is to reduce the number of hits and sacks on Maye. The Patriots have allowed 35 sacks, the second-most in the NFL, with a recent spike in Weeks 8 and 9, highlighting the need for better pass protection and Maye’s quicker release.

The Denver Broncos, with an 8-2 record, hold a 91.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 44.6% chance to win the AFC West, with a 12.2% Super Bowl chance. Quarterback Bo Nix’s sophomore season has been inconsistent (18th QBR), despite the offensive line’s strong pass block win rate (fourth). The defense, however, has lived up to expectations, ranking second in EPA per play. Denver’s eight wins in ten games position them strongly for the postseason. Their second-half goal centers on special teams improvement. The Broncos have been plagued by blocked field goals, ill-timed penalties, poor return decisions, and costly fumbles, indicating a need for greater reliability in critical moments.

Tier 4: Likely In, Barring a Collapse

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 6-3, are projected with a 92.1% chance to make the playoffs and a dominant 90.8% chance to win the NFC South, with an 8.8% Super Bowl chance. Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s strong start and rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka’s emergence have propelled the Buccaneers, who rank 14th in EPA per play despite numerous injuries. Their manageable remaining schedule bodes well for a playoff return. The Buccaneers’ second-half goal is to achieve offensive health. Key players like right tackle Luke Goedeke, running back Bucky Irving, and wide receivers Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan are either returning or working back from various injuries, and their re-integration is vital to sustain offensive momentum.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with a 7-3 record, have an 84.6% chance to make the playoffs and a 10.0% chance for the Super Bowl. Despite losing both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, for the season, their win over the Steelers and the Jaguars’ loss provide a cushion in the wild-card race. However, their offensive line struggles, reflected in the league’s worst pass block win rate without Alt, must improve for a playoff run. Their tangible second-half goal is to enhance kickoff and punt return coverage. Historically a strength, the Chargers’ special teams currently rank among the league’s worst, allowing the most kickoff return yards (1,203) and fourth-most punt return yards (198), a deficiency that could impact their postseason aspirations.

Tier 5: We’re Leaning Yes

The San Francisco 49ers, holding a 6-4 record, have an 85.5% chance to make the playoffs and a 9.6% chance for the Super Bowl. Despite injuries to quarterback Brock Purdy and season-ending losses of key defensive players Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, their six banked wins and a soft remaining schedule offer a strong path to the postseason. The 49ers’ tangible second-half goal is to become a top-10 scoring offense. Currently 17th in offensive points per game (22.0), the return of Purdy, receivers Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk, and offensive linemen Ben Bartch and Jake Brendel is expected to boost their ability to convert drives into touchdowns.

Tier 6: On the Fringe of Hope and Despair

The Pittsburgh Steelers, with a 5-4 record, have a 41.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 2.7% chance for the Super Bowl. The Aaron Rodgers experiment is progressing better than anticipated, yet their defense has underperformed. While a postseason berth is possible, it hinges on improved defensive play and more consistent offense, especially after a recent loss to the Chargers. Their second-half goal is to achieve consistent defensive performance, moving beyond their boom-or-bust tendencies in forcing turnovers and generating sacks.

The Chicago Bears, at 6-3, show a 43.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 1.9% chance for the Super Bowl. Their offense has significantly rebounded, ranking third in EPA per play from Week 5 to Week 9, fueled by a revitalized rushing attack and improved accuracy from Caleb Williams. Despite a challenging schedule, past wins and recent offensive efficiency offer a solid playoff chance. Their tangible goal is to learn how to play a complete game, converting close victories into more decisive wins, leveraging their league-leading 20 takeaways and top-8 scoring offense.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, with a 5-4 record, have a 39.6% chance for the playoffs and a 2.0% chance for the Super Bowl. Their season has been a mix of highs and lows, including a win over the Chiefs but also inconsistent play from Trevor Lawrence and a blown lead against the Texans. Despite playing one of the toughest schedules, their remaining slate is one of the easiest. However, their recent loss was costly. The Jaguars’ second-half goal is to reduce dropped passes; they lead the NFL with 20, including five from Brian Thomas Jr., which have hindered drives and cost potential wins. The acquisition of sure-handed Jakobi Meyers aims to mitigate this issue.

Tier 7: Stranger Things Have Happened

The Houston Texans, holding a 4-5 record, have an 18.5% chance to make the playoffs and a 1.4% chance for the Super Bowl. Despite offensive line issues, their dominant defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Will Anderson Jr., keeps them in contention. An improbable comeback win against the Jaguars injected life into their playoff hopes. Their second-half goal is for offensive coordinator Nick Caley to significantly improve the unit’s scoring and explosiveness, as their current 21.3 points per game barely surpasses last season’s average.

The Carolina Panthers, at 5-5, have an 11.9% chance for the playoffs and a 0.2% chance for the Super Bowl. Their .500 record is somewhat misleading given a minus-45 point differential and a struggling pass defense. Despite skepticism, early wins provide a slim chance. Their second-half goal is to remain in playoff contention. With quarterback Bryce Young 4-0 in one-score games, the defense, which has improved to top-15 in major categories, must keep games close through a tough remaining schedule against contenders.

The Minnesota Vikings, currently 4-5, have a 7.1% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.3% chance for the Super Bowl. Their season seemed lost until an upset win over the Lions, led by second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Despite a subsequent loss to the Ravens and a difficult schedule, playoff hopes persist. Their tangible second-half goal is to thoroughly evaluate McCarthy, providing him with as many snaps as possible to determine his potential as a franchise quarterback while simultaneously competing for a playoff berth.

Tier 8: Yes, I’m Telling You There’s a (Slight) Chance

The Dallas Cowboys, with a 3-5-1 record, have a 5.3% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.4% chance for the Super Bowl. Despite Dak Prescott’s strong performance (second in QBR, 75.2) and the successful acquisition of George Pickens, their defense has struggled significantly. The trade for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson, while bolstering the roster, came too late to substantially impact their 2025 playoff trajectory. Their second-half goal is for the defense to perform at the league average for the final eight games. Currently 31st in yards and points allowed, improved defensive play, especially with returning players, could offer hope for 2026 and potentially prevent a fourth defensive coordinator change in four seasons.

The Cincinnati Bengals, standing at 3-6, have a 6.6% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.5% chance for the Super Bowl. Their season was derailed by Joe Burrow’s long-term injury, backup Jake Browning’s poor performance, and the league’s worst defense (in EPA per play). While Joe Flacco has played well since his acquisition, the team needs a miraculous run for a chance at the postseason, potentially coinciding with Burrow’s late-season return. Their second-half goal is to evaluate the young defensive players to identify potential core pieces for the future. After investing 11 top-100 draft picks on defense since 2021, the Bengals need to determine which players, such as Joseph Ossai, Dax Hill, and DJ Turner II, deserve lucrative second contracts to complement their significant offensive investments.

The Atlanta Falcons, with a 3-6 record, have a 3.8% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.1% chance for the Super Bowl. An inconsistent year from second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a middling, blitz-heavy defense have left them in third place in a weak NFC South. Despite an easy remaining schedule, it is unlikely to be enough for a playoff push, and the team may regret dealing its 2026 first-round pick. Their tangible second-half goal is the continued development of Penix. While a playoff berth is improbable, Penix’s growth into a top-12 quarterback could soften the disappointment of missing the postseason for a franchise that hasn’t made it since 2017.

The Washington Commanders, with a 3-7 record, face long odds with a 1.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.1% chance for the Super Bowl. Two miracles are required: quarterback Jayden Daniels’ quick recovery from a dislocated elbow (not requiring surgery) and an extraordinary winning streak. Walder expresses skepticism due to the Commanders’ defensive struggles. Their second-half goal is better play from the defense and healthy receivers, notably Terry McLaurin. With McLaurin and Noah Brown missing significant time, the offense has sputtered. The defense, ranked 29th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed, must become more competitive to build confidence for the future.

The Arizona Cardinals, at 3-6, have a 1.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 0.1% chance for the Super Bowl. Hopes for a breakout season did not materialize, leading to rumors of Kyler Murray’s potential benching before his IR placement. The team is neither terrible nor good enough to overcome its first-half record. Their second-half goal is to win more games than they lose. With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for at least the next three games and the defense playing at a high level, the Cardinals aim to pull off surprise wins and build positive momentum despite Murray’s absence.

Tier 9: Rest Up for 2026

The Miami Dolphins, with a 3-7 record, possess a mere 0.5% chance to make the playoffs. A season fraught with bad vibes worsened with Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury and Tua Tagovailoa’s poor play, leading to a cascade of losses and the trade of Jaelan Phillips. Despite an unlikely victory over Buffalo, the team faces critical decisions about its future. Their tangible second-half goal is to finish .500 over their final eight games. This would demonstrate fight in a lost season and bolster coach Mike McDaniel’s retention prospects, despite the allure of a high draft pick for fans.

The New York Giants, holding a 2-8 record, have a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs. Rookie Jaxson Dart has shown promise (14th in QBR, 63.2) when healthy, and the pass rush remains a threat. Despite having faced the league’s hardest schedule, eight losses are insurmountable. Their second-half goal is to maintain respectability and keep Dart healthy. Dart, who has taken the second-most hits since becoming the starter and recently suffered a concussion, must stay on the field for the franchise to evaluate his long-term potential.

The New Orleans Saints, at 2-8, have a 0.3% chance to make the playoffs. This season was largely anticipated to be a rebuilding year. The remainder of the season will focus on evaluating rookie quarterback Tyler Shough to determine if he is a viable franchise option or if the team needs to target a first-round quarterback in the 2026 draft. Their tangible second-half goal is to develop Shough; his success will dictate whether the Saints use future draft capital on a quarterback or other positional needs.

The New York Jets, with a 2-7 record, have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs. Their season effectively ended well before the trade deadline deals of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, which signaled a strategic shift towards 2026 and beyond. A new quarterback will be needed, but the acquired draft capital provides future flexibility. Their second-half goal is to finish as a top-20 scoring offense, a feat not achieved since 2015. Despite recent defensive trades, the offense remains intact, and while Justin Fields will be evaluated, a quarterback change is likely in the offseason.

The Las Vegas Raiders, standing at 2-7, have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs. The preseason vision of Geno Smith under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly has not materialized, with Smith ranking 30th in QBR and the Raiders 32nd in EPA per designed carry despite a high draft pick spent on Ashton Jeanty. A subpar defense, despite holding the Broncos to 10 points, leaves the team going nowhere and facing serious questions about its future direction. Their second-half goal is overall improvement across the board, particularly for an offense that scored more than 25 points for the first time in Week 9 and a defense that must reduce its 45% third-down conversion rate.

The Cleveland Browns, at 2-7, have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs. The 2025 season has been a prolonged evaluation of whether a rookie quarterback could develop into a long-term solution, a prospect that currently appears unlikely. While the rest of their draft class has performed well, the team will likely seek another quarterback in the future. Their tangible second-half goal is to firmly evaluate rookie quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. Gabriel has started five games with a 31st-ranked QBR, and Sanders is expected to get a look as QB2, with their performances guiding the team’s offseason quarterback decisions.

The Tennessee Titans, with a 1-8 record, have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs. A lost first season for Cam Ward led to the dismissal of coach Brian Callahan. The team hopes a new coach can unlock Ward’s potential. Abundant cap space promises a free-agent spending spree to bolster the roster. Their tangible second-half goal is to develop Ward. His growth is paramount for the remainder of the season, focusing on mechanics, footwork, and game-time decision-making to build momentum for his second year, emphasizing checkdowns when deep shots are unavailable.