Anshari Taslim
The early stages of the NBA season have unveiled a compelling and historically potent MVP race, challenging established narratives and highlighting unprecedented individual statistical achievements. While several players are delivering career-defining performances, the sheer depth of talent means even exceptional seasons, such as Donovan Mitchell’s current campaign, struggle to gain traction in the conversation. Mitchell, leading a Cleveland Cavaliers team currently on a 52-win pace despite significant absences from its starting point guard and other key role players, is averaging 29.9 points per game with a 60% effective field goal percentage. This statistical combination has only been achieved once before in NBA history over a full season, by Stephen Curry during his MVP-winning year. Yet, the current competitive landscape is so fierce that Mitchell is largely omitted from early MVP ballots.
This competitive intensity is underscored by the fact that three former MVP winners are not only playing arguably the best basketball of their careers but are collectively producing some of the most statistically dominant seasons in NBA history. As of Tuesday, the current season has yielded the three highest single-season Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) ever recorded. This excludes other notable performances, including the player currently posting the third-highest scoring season of the century, and another with the seventh-highest.
While the MVP race is dynamic and susceptible to shifts due to injuries, schedule strength, and late-season surges, approximately a quarter of the way into the season, an early assessment reveals distinct leaders. Betting odds from Caesars Sportsbook reflect the market’s current perception of these candidates.
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5. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers (Current Odds: +5000)
Tyrese Maxey has emerged as a legitimate MVP-caliber scorer, a distinction rarely achieved by guards in league history. Prior to Tuesday’s loss to Orlando, Maxey’s scoring average exceeded that of all but one of the 20 guards who have won MVP awards—only Michael Jordan’s 1988 season surpassed it. This includes several of Jordan’s other MVP campaigns and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-winning season last year.
Maxey’s 2025-26 scoring output bears a striking resemblance to Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2024-25 MVP season. Maxey, before the aforementioned Orlando game, averaged 33 points per game with a 55.9% effective field goal percentage. Gilgeous-Alexander, in his MVP year, averaged 32.7 points per game with a 56.9% effective field goal percentage. While Maxey converts more three-pointers and Gilgeous-Alexander draws more free throws, their overall scoring efficiency is comparable, positioning Maxey as a strong offensive candidate.
However, Maxey’s overall MVP case falls short of Gilgeous-Alexander’s in other critical areas. While Maxey registers more assists, this can be attributed to his historically high ball-handling volume. He is currently averaging over 106 touches per game, a pace that would surpass Nikola Jokić’s tracking era record from last season. Gilgeous-Alexander, by contrast, won MVP with 71.7 touches per game. Despite Maxey’s increased touches and passes (over 73 per game compared to Gilgeous-Alexander’s less than 40), Gilgeous-Alexander maintains a slight edge in potential assists (13.3 to Maxey’s 13.2). This indicates that Gilgeous-Alexander’s passes are significantly more impactful, with approximately one in three leading to a shot, versus one in 5.5 for Maxey. Maxey’s playmaking, while good, does not reach the MVP-caliber level of team offense creation seen in players like Gilgeous-Alexander.
Further limiting Maxey’s MVP candidacy are his defensive weaknesses and the 76ers’ performance as a good, but not elite, team. While he has commendably carried the team, particularly during stretches without key players, concerns about the sustainability of his workload persist. Beyond his record-setting touches, Maxey is averaging more minutes per game than any player since Jimmy Butler in 2014-15 and ranks 15th in field goal attempts per game this century. Such volume, particularly for a smaller guard, raises questions about its viability over an 82-game season.
Maxey’s current standing as the clear No. 5 candidate reflects his emergence as an MVP-caliber player in a crucial offensive dimension, positioning him within the league’s tier of elite guards like Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson, capable of being the primary offensive engine for a contending team.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Current Odds: +2200)
Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is delivering career-highs in points, assists, and various efficiency metrics, underscoring his offensive evolution. The Milwaukee Bucks’ strategic vision to optimize Antetokounmpo’s talents, by placing him as the primary ball-handler surrounded by perimeter shooters, has translated into an exceptionally potent offense. He is shooting over 75% in the restricted area, and the Bucks achieve nearly 44% from beyond the arc when he is on the court.
Advanced metrics consistently place Antetokounmpo third in the MVP race, with substantial leads over Luka Dončić in categories such as PER (34.7 to 29.48), EPM (8.7 to 6.4), BPM (11.3 to 9.4), and Win Shares per 48 minutes (.271 to .222). This statistical superiority over Dončić is partially attributed to Dončić’s lower three-point percentage and higher turnover rate.
However, questions regarding Antetokounmpo’s defensive impact, particularly compared to his Defensive Player of the Year form, have emerged. While the notion of him being a negative defender (as suggested by ESPN’s net points metric) is likely an outlier, it highlights a potential decline in his all-encompassing defensive presence. The Bucks’ defensive struggles, allowing the 11th-most restricted area shots and the 12th-worst field goal percentage in that zone, persist despite Doc Rivers’ coaching and the anticipated rim protection from Myles Turner. Antetokounmpo’s contested shots per game have trended downwards for years (5.4 currently, compared to 9.3 during his DPOY season), and the team’s defensive rating remains largely consistent whether he is on or off the court. While his defensive flashes remain impactful, he may no longer consistently operate at an every-possession DPOY level, which significantly alters his MVP proposition.
Team performance presents another significant hurdle for Antetokounmpo. The Bucks hold an 8-10 record overall, with a 7-6 record in games he has played. A team performing at a 44-win pace with its star player healthy is unlikely to produce an MVP, especially in the Eastern Conference. Historically, the floor for an MVP’s team win total is around 47 wins (e.g., Russell Westbrook in 2016, Nikola Jokić in 2022 without key teammates). Assuming Antetokounmpo misses an average of nine additional games and the Bucks maintain a 3-6 record in those absences, they would need to achieve a 36-19 record in their remaining games (a 54-win pace) to reach 47 wins. Current team performance offers little indication of such a sustained run.
Despite these team-related challenges, Antetokounmpo is arguably playing the best offensive basketball of his career, showcasing enhanced playmaking, improved three-point shooting on limited attempts, and unparalleled rim offense. Should he find himself on a more successful team in subsequent seasons, this offensive iteration could very well contend for future MVP awards.
3. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (Current Odds: +400)
Luka Dončić’s scoring output is even more prolific than Maxey’s, with his average of 34.5 points per game through his first dozen appearances placing him behind only Kobe Bryant and James Harden this century. While his volume is substantial, it appears more sustainable than Maxey’s due to Dončić’s historical precedent of high usage and his potential for three-point shooting regression to the mean. He is currently enduring the worst three-point shooting season of his career (31.1% on a career-high 11 attempts), a figure that is expected to normalize, potentially aided by the return of LeBron James providing easier looks. James’s willingness to defer to Dončić and Austin Reaves suggests Dončić’s shot diet will remain largely consistent.
Dončić has compensated for his perimeter struggles with exceptional interior play, benefiting from a high free-throw rate (55.1%) and an almost unprecedented 61.4% shooting on two-pointers for a ball-handler of his volume. This efficiency on two-point attempts rivals that of dominant big men like Shaquille O’Neal and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and only Nikola Jokić consistently achieves similar figures among ball-dominant players. Dončić also averages 22 points created off assists per game, significantly higher than Donovan Mitchell’s under-15.
The Lakers’ offensive scheme appears tailored to maximize Dončić’s effectiveness. With Austin Reaves acting as an All-Star-caliber secondary creator and LeBron James as a tertiary ball-handler, the team can increase its pace, which benefits Dončić and generates easier offense. While the team’s three-point shooting has been inconsistent, players generally possess the capability to punish closeouts. The presence of Jaxson Hayes and Deandre Ayton provides lob threats, and Ayton’s expanded shooting range (64% outside the restricted area) forces defenses to guard him further from the basket, easing pressure on Dončić at the rim.
However, Dončić’s defensive limitations remain a significant concern for his MVP case. Furthermore, the Lakers’ overall team performance exhibits potential for regression. Their 62% shooting on two-pointers is on pace to shatter an NBA record, and sustaining this without substantial three-point improvement is challenging. The Lakers are also the only undefeated clutch team with a 6-0 record, an anomaly that is unlikely to persist if their overall net rating (currently 15th in the league) does not improve. While James’s return offers a boost, Dončić’s MVP candidacy is contingent on the Lakers maintaining pace with Western Conference contenders like the Nuggets and Rockets.
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (Current Odds: +140)
Nikola Jokić is currently authoring what many statisticians regard as the most efficient offensive season in NBA history. He is shooting 70% on two-pointers and establishing new career highs in both three-point volume and percentage. His assist numbers are historically unprecedented for a center, with only seven centers in NBA history ever averaging half as many assists per game as Jokić currently is. Averaging 29.6 points per game on fewer than 18 field goal attempts, he is the first player in NBA history to achieve this feat. His true shooting percentage of 72.9% approaches LeBron James’s career free-throw percentage, illustrating his unparalleled offensive efficiency.
Jokić’s advanced metrics are setting new benchmarks. His current Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 18.2 shatters his previous record of 13.72, with the gap between his current and former record being larger than the gap between his former record and the 55th-highest BPM ever recorded (Charles Barkley in 1991). As noted, the three highest single-season PERs of all time are occurring this season, with Jokić leading Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander at 36.71. He is also the first player to surpass the 0.4 Win Shares per 48 minutes threshold.
His defensive impact remains a point of debate. While metrics like DBPM may overstate his defensive value, and detractors may exaggerate his deficiencies, his true impact likely lies somewhere in between. Despite his lack of elite athleticism, Jokić provides meaningful defensive value through exceptional positioning, active hands, rebounding, and high basketball IQ. However, the Nuggets’ team defense has slipped outside the top 10, partly due to opponents converting open three-pointers. Without a traditional rim protector, Jokić’s defensive limitations contribute to a ceiling for the team’s overall defensive effectiveness.
Despite injuries to two starters, the Nuggets are currently on a 63-win pace, representing both the best team performance and the most exceptional individual season of the Jokić era. In most other seasons, such a dominant statistical and team performance would position him as the runaway MVP. However, the current season’s extraordinary competition places him in a unique context.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (Current Odds: +150)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s current season, while not setting the same statistical records as Jokić’s, is remarkably close to historic levels. In the advanced metrics where Jokić is setting records, Gilgeous-Alexander’s season currently ranks third in BPM and PER, and second in Win Shares per 48 minutes. Notably, he holds a slight lead over Jokić in EPM (Estimated Plus/Minus) for the second consecutive year, as well as in ESPN’s net points metric. This indicates Gilgeous-Alexander is having a season of historic proportions, even if it is not the most historic.
His counting statistics may not appear as gaudy due to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s frequent blowout victories, which often limit his fourth-quarter playing time. Gilgeous-Alexander has played in only seven of the Thunder’s 18 fourth quarters thus far. Despite limited late-game minutes, he averages an exceptional 9.3 points per game in clutch situations. His per-possession numbers are highly indicative of his efficiency, averaging over 47 points per 100 possessions, surpassing Michael Jordan’s career high of 46.4. Only peak Joel Embiid and James Harden have topped this figure, both doing so with significantly higher ball possession. Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.2 points on just 68 touches per game, translating to approximately half a point generated every time he touches the ball.
While he may not possess Jokić’s playmaking prowess or Antetokounmpo’s peak defensive impact, Gilgeous-Alexander’s approach to offense differentiates him. The Thunder, without Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, maintain a better net rating than the Bucks with Antetokounmpo, a testament to Oklahoma City’s depth and Gilgeous-Alexander’s less ball-dominant style. This empowers his teammates, allowing the offense to remain functional even in his absence, a characteristic not typically seen in other MVP candidates who monopolize offensive possessions.
The prevailing sentiment last season suggested Jokić was the superior player, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s team success earned him the MVP. While a statistical gap may have existed then and potentially persists now, it has narrowed significantly. Gilgeous-Alexander has reached an undeniable peak as an MVP-caliber player, comparable to the prime seasons of Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, or Hakeem Olajuwon.
Crucially, team winning percentage historically plays a significant role in MVP voting. The Thunder are currently on pace for an unprecedented 77-5 record, although this projection is likely high given their soft early schedule. However, even if they finish in the high 60s in wins, history favors Gilgeous-Alexander. Of the seven NBA teams that have won 68 or more games, six produced the MVP. The exceptions occurred when a team’s win total decreased from the previous season (e.g., 1997 Bulls, 2017 Warriors). All four teams winning 65 games produced the MVP. If the Thunder maintain a 62-win pace for the remainder of the season, they would reach 65 wins. It is plausible they could even make a legitimate run at 70 wins, provided they do not actively choose to manage their schedule.
Given Gilgeous-Alexander’s historic individual season and the Thunder’s exceptional team performance, the statistical proximity between him and Jokić suggests that team wins will serve as a critical tiebreaker for many voters. This positioning firmly establishes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the frontrunner in the early MVP race.
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