It’s deja vu for Bell and another NASCAR final four dogfight

The stakes couldn’t be higher for the remaining six drivers vying for the three coveted spots alongside the already-qualified Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe. As the playoff field narrows, the pressure intensifies, and the mathematical permutations leading into the penultimate race at Martinsville paint a stark picture for several prominent drivers.

Following the recent event at Talladega Superspeedway, the playoff standings reveal a tight battle for advancement. Christopher Bell currently holds a comfortable +37 advantage over the cutline, with Kyle Larson just ahead at +38. This seemingly secure position, however, belies the intense competition and potential for seismic shifts in the standings.

In stark contrast, William Byron (-36), Joey Logano (-38), Ryan Blaney (-47), and Chase Elliott (-62) find themselves on the precarious side of the cutline. For these four drivers, the upcoming race at Martinsville is not merely another event; it’s a do-or-die scenario. A victory is the only guaranteed path to remaining championship eligible, leaving them with no room for error on the historic half-mile oval.

The situation creates a compelling narrative for Bell and Larson. While mathematically they appear to be in a favorable position, the possibility of one of the "must-win" drivers emerging victorious looms large. Should one of Byron, Logano, Blaney, or Elliott capture the checkered flag at Martinsville, they would leapfrog the cutline, potentially displacing either Bell or Larson, depending on their respective performances. This scenario means that Bell and Larson, despite their current point advantages, will be locked in a direct battle with each other to accumulate the most points and avoid being the lowest-scoring driver among them if a surprise winner emerges.

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Bell himself acknowledged the unsettling familiarity of the situation. "It’s déjà vu, buddy," he remarked to Motorsport.com after the Talladega race, a nervous laugh betraying the pressure. Last season, Bell narrowly missed a spot in the Championship Four due to a tiebreaker with William Byron, a memory that undoubtedly fuels his cautious yet determined approach.

"You have to go in there assuming one of them are going to win the race," Bell stated, emphasizing the competitive nature of the drivers below the cut. "They’re all very good there and have really good teams. Kyle or myself could win it. That is the most likely list of drivers who are going to get it done there." He anticipates a playoff contender to win the race, setting up a direct confrontation with Larson for the final Championship Four berth.

Chris Gabehart, Director of Competition for Joe Gibbs Racing and Bell’s former crew chief, understands the emotional and strategic complexities of these high-stakes races. Having experienced the pressure from various vantage points—needing to win, needing to defend a position, and successfully advancing—he recognizes the taxing nature of the playoff battle. "Well, it’s a lot of stress for sure," Gabehart commented. "But our company ran really strong at Martinsville in the spring and I feel like we should be able to bring even better cars here in the fall. I like our chances on speed and if one of those guys below the cut do win, and it’s Larson and Bell fighting it out like they have in so many cars, and so many times before, and I respect Larson and the Hendrick 5 team, but this is Christopher Bell we are talking about and I’ll take my chances."

The near miss for Kyle Larson at Talladega, where he ran out of fuel on the final lap while contending for the win, dropping him from a potential top-five finish to 26th, has significantly tightened the points battle between him and Bell. This seemingly minor point swing could prove to be the decisive factor in their race for the Championship Four. Larson’s crew chief, Cliff Daniels, echoed the sentiment of needing to control their own destiny. "It’s mathematically not a must-win but we are certainly going to go in with that belief," Daniels said. "You’d much rather go in there feeling like you need to control your destiny by winning than having the math play out however it shakes up."

The scoring system, with points awarded for both stage wins and final race positions, adds another layer of complexity. Each stage winner can earn up to 10 points, with additional points awarded down the field. This means that even if Bell and Larson finish closely in the main race, stage points could still create a crucial difference.

For William Byron, the situation is particularly poignant. As the regular-season champion, he entered the playoffs with high expectations. However, a late-race incident at Talladega, where he was spun on the final lap, further complicated his playoff hopes. "We got linked together really good in 1 and 2 and the bottom, I got clear for a minute and just couldn’t get linked for whatever reason off (Turn) 4," Byron explained. "Those guys were just pushing really hard on the outside lane and just pushed past us. I don’t know. The pushes weren’t timed up perfectly and we lost control of the bottom lane. The outside lane had more energy and then (Larson) ran out of gas, and that didn’t help us any." Byron, like the other drivers below the cut, now faces the stark reality of needing a win at Martinsville. "Looks like we have to win," he stated. "Looks like all the guys below the cut have to win so we just need to go there and do that. We’ve had two strong weeks but no results." His previous week’s crash at Las Vegas after Ty Dillon slowed unexpectedly, followed by the incident at Talladega, highlights the unpredictable nature of the playoffs.

Team Penske’s championship contenders, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, the last two Cup Series champions, also find themselves in a similar must-win predicament. They had controlled much of the race at Talladega, aware of their need to win, but the shifting dynamics of the race, including cars saving fuel and the eventual outcome for Larson, have put them in a position where only one of them can realistically advance if they don’t secure a victory. "It’s pretty apparent the second we lost control of the race," Logano commented on the situation at Talladega. "I’m only driving one car, so I couldn’t really control the race. The car behind me was saving gas, that didn’t help us and killed the whole bottom lane. Cars were pulling in front of us and we were just getting demoted from the first two cars in line to the back of the line." Logano remains optimistic about Martinsville, stating, "Martinsville’s not a bad track for us. We just have a simple point of view at this point, it’s all or nothing. Stage points aren’t going to matter. Nothing else is going to matter but winning." His teammate, Blaney, echoed this sentiment, "Not the finish we wanted. We didn’t do what we needed to do and we didn’t get help when we needed it. Now we have to go win next week."

Chase Elliott, another former champion, also faces the daunting task of winning at Martinsville after an incident before the end of the first stage at Talladega. "All eyes on Martinsville and we’ve been good there before," Elliott commented, underscoring the team’s focus on achieving the necessary victory.

As the series heads to Martinsville, the stage is set for another intense showdown. The drivers on the edge of elimination will be pushing their equipment and their nerve to the limit, while Bell and Larson will be strategizing to maximize their points and avoid the worst-case scenarios. The historic paperclip oval has a reputation for producing dramatic finishes, and this upcoming race is poised to be no exception as the battle for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship continues.