Ali Akbar Rosady
The reality has been one of considerable upheaval. The Kansas City Chiefs, perennial contenders, stumbled to an 0-2 start and currently find themselves outside the playoff picture at the season’s midway point, occupying the eighth seed in the AFC. The Baltimore Ravens similarly endured a challenging opening, beginning their campaign with a 1-5 record before initiating a turnaround following their bye week. While the Buffalo Bills have secured victories against both of their frequent playoff rivals, their résumé also includes surprising defeats to the Atlanta Falcons and a decisive blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10.
This disruption among the traditional "top tier" has opened the door for a larger, more fluid group of teams vying for supremacy in the AFC. None of these new claimants possess an unblemished record, and some perceived early candidates, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, have already faltered. The Jaguars surged to a 4-1 record following a Week 5 "Monday Night Football" victory over the Chiefs but subsequently lost three of their next four games, including a heartbreaking 36-29 defeat to the Houston Texans in Week 10, where they conceded 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
Amidst this evolving landscape, the question of which team truly warrants faith as the AFC’s best remains open for debate. The instinct to defer to the Chiefs or Bills, based on their recent history, clashes with the compelling arguments for a new guard: the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, and New England Patriots—all of whom currently hold superior records to the traditional powerhouses. This report will present the case for each of these emergent contenders, examining their Week 10 performances, strengths, weaknesses, and key victories.
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Indianapolis Colts (8-2, No. 1 Seed)
Week 10: Beat the Falcons 31-25 (in overtime)
The Colts’ Week 10 overtime victory against the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin offered a microcosm of the complexities involved in evaluating the AFC’s current leaders. On one hand, Indianapolis demonstrated resilience, overcoming the absence of injured defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck) and rallying to win. Running back Jonathan Taylor delivered an exceptional performance, scoring three touchdowns, including a pivotal 83-yard run. Quarterback Daniel Jones, despite a challenging outing, orchestrated a crucial late-game drive that led to a tying 44-yard field goal, and the defense stiffened in overtime to secure the win.
Conversely, the performance also highlighted vulnerabilities. The Colts’ defense allowed 25 points to a Falcons offense that failed to convert a single third down throughout the game. Indy’s survival was significantly aided by recovering four of the game’s five fumbles, including three of their own lost offensive possessions. Even with new cornerback Sauce Gardner making his debut, the Colts’ defense struggled to close out the game in regulation against Michael Penix Jr., allowing a 71-yard drive without facing a third down before Atlanta took a late lead.
Most concerning was the high-variance play from Daniel Jones. Following a Week 9 loss to the Steelers where he committed five turnovers and took five sacks, Jones continued to struggle against the Falcons, throwing an interception, fumbling three times (losing one), and being sacked seven times on just 33 dropbacks. While he made critical plays, his recent performances starkly contrast his impeccable start to the season, where he threw only three interceptions, fumbled twice, and took nine sacks across his first eight starts. His sack rate, a previous strength under coach Shane Steichen, has more than doubled in the last two weeks, reaching 12 sacks. While some of this can be attributed to offensive line breakdowns or unfortunate deflections, Jones’ increased propensity for strip-sacks, often due to poor pocket awareness or ball security, signals a concerning trend. Special teams also contributed to inefficiency, with a missed field goal and an extra point.
The Best Argument: A Potentially Historic Offensive Season Driven by Jonathan Taylor
The Colts’ primary claim to AFC supremacy rests on their offensive prowess, particularly the dominant play of Jonathan Taylor. Responding to a subpar Week 9, Taylor carried the offense against the Falcons with 32 carries for 244 yards and three scores. His 83-yard touchdown, where he broke free from a crowded line of scrimmage to outrun A.J. Terrell Jr., underscored his elite talent.
Taylor’s exceptional run dates back to the final quarter of the 2024 season and has extended into 2025. Over a 14-game stretch, he has amassed 306 carries for 1,766 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns, leading the league in both categories by significant margins. Projecting this performance over a full 17-game season places Taylor on pace for 2,144 rushing yards, which would set a new single-season rushing record, and 26 rushing touchdowns. Including his three receiving scores, he would reach 29 scrimmage touchdowns, second only to LaDainian Tomlinson’s 31 in 2006. Such a season would undoubtedly place him in strong MVP consideration, particularly if Jones’ inconsistencies persist.
The Colts’ offense, with an average of 3.2 points per possession, ranks as the fourth-best through 10 weeks since 2000, trailing only the 2018 Saints, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Chiefs. This sustained offensive excellence positions them as a legitimate juggernaut capable of competing with any team.
The Most Realistic Criticism: Over-reliance on Taylor and Lack of Defensive Superstars Beyond the Run Game
While Taylor’s brilliance is undeniable, the Colts’ ceiling is directly tied to Daniel Jones’ performance. His struggles over the past two weeks, marked by an increase in turnovers and sacks, raise questions about his consistency and ability to lead a deep playoff run. The version of Jones seen in September and October offered a different outlook than the one struggling in November.
Defensively, the absence of DeForest Buckner, the focal point of their pass rush, is a significant blow, especially with no clear timetable for his return. While Sauce Gardner’s debut showed promise (allowing 3 catches for 46 yards, 100% snaps, higher man coverage rate), the team may lack sufficient superstar talent beyond Taylor and guard Quenton Nelson to consistently challenge top-tier offenses. The defense needs to prove it can compensate for Buckner’s loss and prevent opponents from exploiting potential weaknesses.
Meaningful Résumé:
- 29-28 win over Broncos: A narrow victory that required a late-game penalty against Denver.
- 38-24 win over Chargers: A decisive win against a strong AFC opponent.
- 27-20 loss to Rams: A frustrating loss partly due to a crucial fumble near the goal line.
The Colts have demonstrated an ability to compete fiercely against strong opponents, often resulting in close contests.
Denver Broncos (8-2, No. 2 Seed)
Week 10: Beat the Raiders 10-7
The Denver Broncos extended their winning streak to seven games with a low-scoring 10-7 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10. While a win is a win, the game provided a mixed bag of reaffirmations and renewed concerns.
The Broncos’ defense delivered a suffocating performance, completely stifling Geno Smith and the Raiders’ offense. Vance Joseph’s unit sacked Smith six times on 32 dropbacks, generating 13 quick pressures, including six from Defensive Player of the Year contender Nik Bonitto. When pressured, Smith completed just 3-of-7 passes for 8 yards and an interception. The defense also proved its ability to thrive without star cornerback Pat Surtain II (pectoral injury), limiting Raiders tight end Brock Bowers to just one catch for 31 yards after his dominant Week 9 outing. This defensive resilience, even with a key player sidelined, underscores their collective strength.
However, quarterback Bo Nix continued to struggle for the second consecutive start. Following a challenging outing against the league’s top-ranked Texans defense, Nix’s performance against the 22nd-ranked Raiders defense was equally concerning. He completed 16 of 28 passes for 150 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. The Broncos’ offense managed to gain a first down on only four of their thirteen drives, recording nine three-and-outs—a statistic not seen since Nix’s rookie season opener in 2024.
The Best Argument: An Elite, Championship-Caliber Defense
The Denver Broncos arguably possess the best defense in football, a unit capable of winning championships. Their league-leading 11.8% sack rate is a testament to their relentless pass rush. This effectiveness is often achieved without heavy blitzing, as their sack rate is slightly higher (12.0%) when rushing four or fewer defenders. Edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper lead the league in get-off speed, making them incredibly difficult to block. This combined with Zach Allen’s interior force creates a formidable pass rush that can single-handedly disrupt opposing offenses.
The anticipated return of Pat Surtain II will restore the defense to full strength, further bolstering a unit that has already seen significant contributions from depth players and veterans playing at All-Pro levels, such as Talanoa Hufanga, Allen, and Bonitto. The collective talent and depth across all three levels, with players like Malcolm Roach, Dondrea Tillman, and Justin Strnad making meaningful contributions, give the Broncos a distinct advantage.
The Most Realistic Criticism: Bo Nix’s Inconsistent and Unpredictable Quarterback Play
Bo Nix’s erratic performances remain the most significant question mark for the Broncos. His play has been characterized by extreme hot and cold streaks, leading to wildly inconsistent output. While he can deliver brilliant stretches, such as the final quarter against the Giants or his dominant outing against the Cowboys, these are often sandwiched between disappointing performances.
Head coach Sean Payton’s offense attempts to mitigate Nix’s burden with a scheme rich in screens, swing passes, jet sweeps, bootlegs, and RPOs designed for easy completions and YAC. However, Nix struggles to consistently connect on downfield throws. His -19.8% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on passes traveling 30 or more yards in the air is the worst in the league among quarterbacks with at least 10 such throws, converting only 3 of 27 attempts with one touchdown and three picks. His off-target rate on throws 10+ yards downfield is 39%, ranking 32nd in the league, and an astonishing 45% on first downs.
While Nix possesses a strong arm, his propensity for scrambling and attempting off-platform throws often compromises his footwork and accuracy. Despite the hope for improved consistency in Year 2, his movement within the pocket continues to create unpredictable ball placement, leading to incompletions and turnovers. Although he maintains a low sack rate (2.8%), his eight interceptions this season represent an uptick. For the Broncos to be true contenders, Nix must reduce turnovers and capitalize on the big-play opportunities created by Payton’s scheme.
Meaningful Résumé:
- 29-28 loss to Colts: A narrow, hard-fought contest decided by a late-game penalty.
- 23-20 loss to Chargers: A close defeat where Nix missed a potential game-winning throw.
- 21-17 win over Eagles: An impressive comeback victory against a strong NFC opponent.
While their winning streak includes victories over the Bengals, Eagles, Jets, Giants, Cowboys, Texans (after C.J. Stroud’s injury), and Raiders, some of these wins have been against struggling teams or required late-game heroics against inferior opponents. A critical test awaits with a home game against the Kansas City Chiefs, a rematch of last season’s surprising blowout win, though that came against backups. A victory over Patrick Mahomes and the full-strength Chiefs would significantly legitimize Denver’s contender status.
New England Patriots (8-2, No. 3 Seed)
Week 10: Beat the Buccaneers 28-23
The New England Patriots continued their remarkable surge with a 28-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, extending their winning streak to seven games. This run has propelled Mike Vrabel’s team to an 8-2 record, establishing a two-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East, with New England also holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. Their upcoming schedule features games against the Jets, Bengals, and Giants—teams with a combined 7-21 record—suggesting a strong possibility of entering their Week 14 rematch against the Bills with a 10-game winning streak and a playoff berth secured.
The Week 10 contest in Tampa Bay, played in rainy conditions, served as a crucial test of the Patriots’ ability to perform on the road against stiffer competition. The results were mixed but ultimately positive. Quarterback Drake Maye delivered several critical big plays, accounting for more than half of his 270 passing yards on three explosive throws: a 72-yard touchdown to Kyle Williams, a 54-yard completion to Mack Hollins, and a 26-yard throw to DeMario Douglas. Maye also connected with Stefon Diggs for a touchdown on fourth-and-goal just before halftime, a play that raised questions about clock management intentions.
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson had a breakout performance, adding two massive plays: a 55-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and a 69-yard dash to seal the game in the fourth, even pausing to consult the sideline on whether to score. In total, the Patriots generated four plays of 50-plus yards, a rare feat.
However, the Patriots’ offense struggled with consistency between these explosive moments, recording a season-low 33.9% success rate. Maye, while brilliant on big plays, also threw an ill-advised interception in the end zone and struggled with accuracy in the heavy rain early on. The defense, though not dominant throughout, made a crucial play late, with free agent additions K’Lavon Chaisson and Milton Williams forcing a desperate throw from Baker Mayfield on fourth-and-3 in the red zone to preserve the lead.
The Best Argument: An Emerging Elite Quarterback in Drake Maye
The Patriots’ strongest argument for AFC contention lies with quarterback Drake Maye, whose MVP-caliber play has been a driving force. Maye has distinguished himself as an exceptional downfield thrower and scrambler, leading the NFL in QBR on both deep passes (99.9) and against the blitz (94.1). He operates at a higher level than other quarterbacks from the 2024 draft class, demonstrating superior consistency as a dropback passer compared to Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., or Caleb Williams. If a redraft of 2024 were held today, many teams would likely select Maye first overall.
The offense has potential for further improvement. TreVeyon Henderson’s explosiveness provides a much-needed dimension to the running game, and his role is expected to expand. Rookie offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson should continue to develop. The receiving corps, while currently lacking a consistent No. 1 option, could see veteran Stefon Diggs take on a larger role. Despite a monitored workload due to last season’s torn ACL, Diggs ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per route run (2.6) and second in ESPN’s receiver score metric, indicating elite efficiency on a route-by-route basis. If his snap count increases, his production could rise accordingly, providing Maye with a truly dominant target.
The Most Realistic Criticism: A Schedule Dominated by Inferior Opponents
The most significant criticism of the Patriots’ impressive record is the perceived weakness of their schedule. New England has secured victories against three of ESPN Football Power Index’s four lowest-ranked teams (Browns, Titans, Saints) and has two upcoming games against the 30th-ranked Jets. Their other wins have come against the Dolphins (23rd), Falcons (24th), and Panthers (27th). Furthermore, one of their two losses was to the 5th-worst Raiders.
While the Patriots can only beat the teams placed before them, this schedule makes it challenging to accurately gauge their true strength against top-tier competition. The latter half of their schedule, despite featuring matchups against the Bills and Ravens, also includes additional games against the Jets and Dolphins, perpetuating the trend of facing weaker opponents. This lack of consistent challenges against high-caliber teams leaves questions about their ability to perform in the rigorous environment of the AFC playoffs.
Meaningful Résumé:
- 23-20 win over Bills: A significant divisional victory, though aided by three turnovers from a historically careful Bills team.
- 28-23 win over Buccaneers: A road victory against a respectable opponent, characterized by an unsustainably high number of explosive plays.
The Patriots have rarely been tested this season, and while their record is strong, their true standing among the AFC’s elite remains somewhat unproven against a consistently challenging slate.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, No. 5 Seed)
Week 10: Beat the Steelers 25-10
The Los Angeles Chargers secured a 25-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, clinching their position in this discussion. The game, initially a low-scoring affair (3-2 or 5-3), saw the Chargers pull away with 25 consecutive points before a late Steelers touchdown.
On paper, the matchup presented significant challenges for the Chargers’ offense, particularly their offensive line. With left tackle Joe Alt and left guard Rashawn Slater out for the season, and Austin Deculus and Trey Pipkins III starting at tackle, the Chargers faced the formidable Steelers pass rush, featuring T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig. However, offensive coordinator Greg Roman devised an effective game plan, prioritizing quick throws to mitigate the pass rush. Quarterback Justin Herbert averaged a career-quickest 2.21-second time to throw and faced only a 30.0% pressure rate. Deculus and Pipkins allowed only one quick pressure, and Herbert completed 15 of 21 quick passes for 145 yards and his sole touchdown. When not pressured, Herbert was 17-of-26 for 203 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers effectively exploited Pittsburgh’s secondary, which was further hampered by Darius Slay’s concussion and new additions at safety.
Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit delivered an exceptional performance, stifling Aaron Rodgers. Despite minimal blitzing, Rodgers never appeared comfortable, going 0-for-5 under pressure and completing just one pass over 10 air yards on eight attempts. His 4.6 Total QBR was the worst of any quarterback in Week 10 and the second-worst of his career. The Chargers’ defense forced seven three-and-outs and two drives with only one first down from Pittsburgh. Cornerback Tarheeb Still’s absence was notable, but the unit’s depth at cornerback allowed them to contain the Steelers’ passing game effectively.
The Best Argument: A Top-Tier Defense and Proven Coaching Staff
The Chargers’ defense has established itself as a legitimate strength, climbing to sixth in the NFL in EPA per play. Despite recent injuries, the unit is regaining health, with safety Derwin James Jr. leading a group that includes young standouts like Tuli Tuipulotu, Daiyan Henley, and Cam Hart, alongside revitalized veterans such as Teair Tart, Donte Jackson, Elijah Molden, and recent acquisition Odafe Oweh. While they rank 17th against designed runs, preventing negative game scripts helps mask this relative weakness.
The coaching staff, led by Jim Harbaugh, is a significant asset. Harbaugh’s track record as a serial winner, including a Super Bowl appearance in his second year with the 49ers, speaks to his ability to elevate teams. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who served under Harbaugh with the 49ers, has demonstrated adaptability by expanding the passing game for Herbert this season. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, with a background similar to Mike Macdonald’s success in Seattle, is widely regarded as one of the most promising young coaches in football. This collective coaching expertise provides a crucial competitive advantage.
The Most Realistic Criticism: Catastrophic Offensive Line Injuries
The Chargers’ most pressing concern is the extensive injury list on offense, particularly along the offensive line. The season-ending losses of both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, arguably two of the team’s best players outside of Herbert, represent a monumental challenge. Running back Najee Harris is also out for the season, and first-round pick Omarion Hampton is still recovering from an ankle injury. The Week 10 knee injury to rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden II further depletes Herbert’s playmaking options.
The impact of these offensive line injuries on Justin Herbert is profound. With Alt in the lineup, Herbert posted a 77.0 QBR, the second-best mark in the NFL. Without him, that figure drops to 52.4, ranking 20th. His yards per attempt decrease from 8.6 with Alt to 6.4 without him. While the Chargers demonstrated an ability to adapt in Week 10, the long-term absence of their top two tackles will inevitably cap the efficiency and explosiveness of their passing attack. The Chargers, who previously led the league in pass rate over expectation, will likely need to shift towards a more consistent running game, a challenging prospect with a depleted backfield and offensive line. Their third-down conversion rate, second-best in the NFL at 48%, could also suffer significantly with two backup tackles, as evidenced by their 6-for-17 performance against Pittsburgh.
Meaningful Résumé:
- 27-21 win over Chiefs: An early-season victory in Brazil against a Chiefs team that has since shown vulnerabilities.
- 23-20 win over Broncos: A narrow victory against an AFC contender.
- 38-24 loss to Colts: A decisive loss against the current AFC top seed.
The Chargers face a challenging upcoming schedule, including the Jaguars before their bye, then hosting the Raiders, Eagles on "Monday Night Football," and a road trip to Kansas City, followed by a potential division-deciding Week 18 matchup in Denver. Their ability to navigate these games despite their significant offensive injuries will define their season.
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