Indiana Quarterback Fernando Mendoza Ascends to Top Spot in Revised 2026 NFL Draft QB Poll

Fernando Mendoza, the standout quarterback from Indiana, has emerged as the leading prospect for the 2026 NFL Draft, according to a recent poll of 25 NFL scouts and executives. This significant shift in projections highlights the profound volatility and unpredictability that has characterized the 2025 college football season, rippling through the evaluation of draft-eligible quarterbacks.

The latest survey, conducted by ESPN, revealed a drastically altered landscape compared to six weeks prior. Mendoza secured 13 votes, placing him firmly ahead of Oregon’s Dante Moore, who received six votes, and Alabama’s Ty Simpson, with three. Notably, none of these three quarterbacks had received a single vote in the initial poll, underscoring the dynamic nature of talent assessment in college football. All three maintain remaining collegiate eligibility, adding another layer of intrigue to their future decisions regarding the draft.

Beyond the top three, a handful of other quarterbacks garnered attention, albeit with fewer votes. Oklahoma’s John Mateer, Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers each received one vote. Among this group, only Sellers and Mateer had registered votes in the initial poll, further emphasizing the considerable upheaval in scout perceptions.

One anonymous scout, speaking to ESPN, encapsulated the current sentiment surrounding the class, stating, "It’s not a stellar class. If you add the maybes [who have eligibility and could leave school], now it gets interesting. The top is better than last year’s class, for sure." This observation suggests a cautious optimism regarding the potential at the very top, even if the overall depth remains a concern.

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The stark contrast between the two polls underscores the rapid evolution of prospect evaluations. The initial poll, conducted on September 20, featured seven different quarterbacks receiving votes. In that assessment, LaNorris Sellers of South Carolina led with eight votes, closely followed by LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier with seven. Both Sellers and Nussmeier, along with their respective teams, have reportedly experienced struggles throughout the current season, contributing to their decline in the updated rankings. Other players who received votes in the first QB1 poll but have since fallen out of the top tier include Miami’s Carson Beck (3 votes), Mateer (3 votes), Penn State’s Drew Allar (2 votes), Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt (1 vote), and Texas’ Arch Manning (1 vote).

The collective sentiment regarding the 2026 class has indeed soured somewhat since the initial polling. Beyond the dip in on-field performance for players like Sellers and Nussmeier, the landscape has been further complicated by injuries, such as the season-ending injury suffered by Drew Allar, and the unexpected struggles of highly touted prospects like Arch Manning, who has yet to demonstrate the generational talent suggested by his family legacy and recruiting pedigree.

While Fernando Mendoza has ascended to the top spot, he is not yet universally considered a "no-brainer" No. 1 overall pick. His trajectory, however, is clearly trending in that direction, with scouts increasingly convinced by his progression and on-field attributes.

Mendoza’s journey to this prominent position began with his transfer from Cal, a move that has seemingly ignited his collegiate career. Under the guidance of Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, and quarterbacks coach Chandler Whitmer, Mendoza has exhibited significant growth. His statistical improvements are notable: his completion percentage has climbed to an impressive 72.3%, a marked increase from 68.7% last season at Cal. He has also thrown 25 touchdowns, nine more than his previous season’s total, showcasing enhanced playmaking ability. Furthermore, Mendoza has proven to be a dual-threat, rushing for four touchdowns and averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, up from 7.8 yards. These statistics reflect not only improved accuracy and arm talent but also a greater willingness and effectiveness in utilizing his legs.

Scouts are particularly drawn to Mendoza’s foundational attributes. His physical stature, standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing 225 pounds, provides an ideal frame for an NFL quarterback. His stated admiration for Tom Brady is also viewed positively, signaling a potential for elite dedication and a high football IQ. "He has ‘wow’ throws and playmaking passer ability," one scout observed, adding, "He can anticipate post-snap." Another executive elaborated on Mendoza’s decision-making and pocket presence: "He’s decisive, and he sees everything well. He’s got accuracy down the field and is very tough in the pocket." A specific play against Iowa, where Mendoza absorbed a significant hit from a Hawkeyes linebacker while delivering a precise pass into tight coverage, has been cited as an example of his toughness and composure under pressure. Indiana’s overall performance in the 2025 season, while not detailed in specifics, has clearly provided Mendoza with opportunities to showcase his talents against competitive Big Ten opponents, contributing to his heightened profile.

Dante Moore’s emergence into the second position has been equally swift. A redshirt sophomore, Moore entered college as ESPN’s No. 2 overall player, carrying immense expectations. He began his collegiate career by starting five games for UCLA in 2023 before transferring to Oregon, where he spent last season backing up Dillon Gabriel. Despite attempting only eight passes in 2024, Moore has capitalized on his starting role in 2025, demonstrating efficiency and playmaking. Standing at 6-foot-3 and 206 pounds, he has thrown 19 touchdowns, maintained a 71.4% completion percentage, and accumulated 1,772 passing yards. His development within Oregon’s high-powered offensive system, a program consistently competing for national titles, has clearly impressed evaluators who appreciate his blend of arm talent and increasing command of the offense.

Ty Simpson, Alabama’s rising star, also finds himself in the top three after not having started a game until the current season. This lack of extensive starting experience has fueled speculation among NFL circles that Simpson might opt to return to college for another year, a common consideration given that quarterbacks with fewer than 25 collegiate starts historically show a less consistent track record of NFL success. However, Simpson has rapidly ascended onto draft radars with an impressive statistical output: 20 touchdowns against just one interception, a 67.8% completion percentage, and 2,184 passing yards. Playing for a perennial national championship contender like Alabama places him under constant scrutiny, and his ability to perform at a high level in such an environment has undoubtedly contributed to his rapid rise in the draft projections.

Brendan Sorsby of Cincinnati represents arguably the biggest surprise among the vote-getters. While he reportedly encountered difficulties in high-profile matchups against Nebraska and Utah earlier in the season, scouts acknowledge his significant progress and overall potential. A scout provided a comprehensive assessment of Sorsby, noting, "He’s big, tough, athletic and smart. He’s a leader and can make off-schedule plays and change arm angles. He’s got the ‘It.’ I think he’s very gifted." These attributes, particularly the ability to extend plays and alter arm angles, are highly valued in the modern NFL, suggesting that Sorsby possesses a unique skill set that compensates for some of his perceived inconsistencies. His development in the American Athletic Conference has allowed him to hone these skills, leading to increased attention from professional scouts.

The overall unpredictability of the 2025 college football season has created a fascinating and dynamic landscape for the 2026 NFL Draft’s quarterback class. The rapid ascensions of players like Mendoza, Moore, and Simpson, juxtaposed with the struggles and injuries affecting previously highly-rated prospects, underscore the continuous nature of evaluation in the scouting process. As the college football season progresses, the performances and decisions of these talented quarterbacks will continue to be meticulously scrutinized, shaping the final outlook for what promises to be an intriguing draft class.