Heavyweight Gold on the Line: UFC 321 Explores Five Pivotal Fights in Abu Dhabi

For the first time since Jon Jones secured the undisputed heavyweight championship against Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the division’s premier title will be contested without an active interim belt in circulation. Tom Aspinall, previously the interim titleholder, has been elevated to full champion status and is set to make his inaugural defense against Gane this Saturday, headlining UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi. This main event signifies a critical juncture for the heavyweight landscape, which has been characterized by periods of uncertainty stemming from Jones’ intermittent activity and his previous reluctance to face Aspinall. Jones, after vacating the title and briefly announcing retirement in June, has since indicated plans for a return later in the year, adding another layer of intrigue to the division’s future. As the Ultimate Fighting Championship stages its 22nd event in the capital city of the United Arab Emirates, several key narratives underpin the fight card.

1. Tom Aspinall’s Defining Moment Under Immense Scrutiny

Tom Aspinall, the 32-year-old Englishman, steps into the Octagon carrying the weight of significant expectation as he defends the undisputed heavyweight title for the first time. His professional record, particularly within the UFC, showcases a remarkable nine fights with eight stoppage victories and only one loss, which occurred due to a knee injury against Curtis Blaydes in July 2022. Aspinall avenged this setback with a first-round knockout of Marcin Tybura in July 2023, followed by a first-round knockout of Sergei Pavlovich in November 2023 to claim the interim title. Despite his impressive string of finishes, aspects of Aspinall’s fighting capabilities remain untested. He has never fought beyond the second round in his 18 professional bouts, raising questions about his endurance in championship-distance contests. Furthermore, the extent of his ground game and the resilience of his chin under prolonged pressure are largely unexplored. Aspinall’s striking is characterized by exceptional hand speed and formidable power, though observers have noted his tendency to expose his chin while retreating, a vulnerability he has yet to be penalized for. The narrative surrounding Aspinall has also been shaped by comments from Jon Jones, who previously questioned Aspinall’s overall fighting prowess, drawing power, and potential for longevity, often in defense of his own decision not to unify the titles. With Aspinall entering the bout as a substantial 4-to-1 betting favorite against Gane, the outcome carries implications beyond the title itself. A defeat could, for some, retroactively validate Jones’ dismissive remarks, while a dominant victory would solidify Aspinall’s position as a legitimate force and the rightful heir to the division’s undisputed throne, confirming the rationale for Jones to avoid such a dynamic challenge.

2. Ciryl Gane’s Crucial Juncture in Championship Aspirations

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For 35-year-old Ciryl Gane, this encounter represents a critical juncture in his quest for undisputed heavyweight gold. Upon his UFC debut in 2019, the 6-foot-5 kickboxer, who transitioned to mixed martial arts from Muay Thai just a year prior, was widely regarded as the prototype for the modern heavyweight. His initial ascent was rapid, culminating in an interim heavyweight title victory over Derrick Lewis in 2021, which extended his undefeated professional record to 10-0. However, the subsequent four years have presented a more challenging trajectory for Gane, marked by a perceived stagnation or even regression in certain areas. His ground game, in particular, was significantly exposed in two high-stakes title fights. The first was a unanimous decision loss to Francis Ngannou in January 2022, where Ngannou famously fought with a compromised knee. The second was a first-round submission defeat to Jon Jones in March 2023, ending in just 2 minutes and 4 seconds. Between these championship setbacks, Gane also experienced moments of vulnerability, notably being visibly hurt multiple times during his 2022 knockout victory over Tai Tuivasa. His most recent outing in December saw him secure a highly contested split decision win against Alexander Volkov, a verdict openly disputed by UFC CEO Dana White. While Gane did display moments of brilliance in a 2023 TKO win over Serghei Spivac, reaffirming his striking credentials, the two prior disappointing title challenges underscore the high stakes of his fight against Aspinall. For the French native, this bout is widely perceived as potentially his final opportunity to claim the undisputed heavyweight crown. To achieve this, Gane will need to demonstrate substantial improvements in his defensive grappling and prove his ability to navigate deep waters, taking Aspinall beyond his known limits in multi-round engagements.

3. The Women’s Strawweight Division Opens Up: Jandiroba vs. Dern for Vacant Title

The women’s strawweight division has recently undergone a significant shift with the departure of its two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 36-year-old Chinese star vacated her 115-pound title to pursue a historic superfight against flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko, scheduled to co-headline UFC 322 in November. This strategic move by Zhang has created an immediate and substantial opportunity within a strawweight landscape that, while competitive, currently lacks the singular star power it once enjoyed. Seizing this moment, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will face off in the co-main event of UFC 321 for the now-vacant championship, marking a rematch of their 2020 encounter. Jandiroba, 37, a former Invicta FC champion, experienced a mixed start to her UFC career, losing three of her first six bouts after her 2019 debut. However, she has since found a formidable rhythm, entering this title fight on an impressive five-fight winning streak. Known for her understated demeanor but highly technical approach inside the cage, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has secured victories over a series of top contenders including Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez. Mackenzie Dern, 32, followed a different path to the top. Upon her 2018 debut, she was touted as a future star with considerable marketing potential, largely due to her elite grappling pedigree. While currently on a two-fight winning streak, Dern’s recent record reflects a period of inconsistency, with a 3-4 standing in her last seven fights. Having secured a decision victory over Jandiroba in their initial meeting, Dern now faces a revitalized opponent. To fully realize her potential and capture the undisputed title, Dern will need to demonstrate improved game planning and more consistent striking technique, areas where she has historically faced challenges, against a former foe who has demonstrably enhanced her overall skillset.

4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Quest for Bantamweight Supremacy

The bantamweight division, dominated by the relentless pressure and unwavering pace of champion Merab Dvalishvili, poses the question of who, if anyone, possesses the complete skillset to dethrone "The Machine." Umar Nurmagomedov, cousin to UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, faced Dvalishvili in January, suffering a unanimous decision loss in a fight where he entered undefeated. Despite the defeat, Nurmagomedov’s performance, particularly given a broken right hand sustained in the first round, has fueled belief in his potential for a rematch. He expressed conviction that he had done enough to win, despite the 48-47 (twice) and 49-46 scorecards. Nurmagomedov’s perfectly well-rounded game, characterized by elite wrestling, dangerous striking, and precise grappling, presents a unique challenge to Dvalishvili. The primary area where Nurmagomedov appeared to be at a disadvantage against the Georgian champion was his gas tank, an aspect he has publicly stated he intends to adjust. Dvalishvili, having effectively cleared out many of the division’s top contenders, is scheduled for his fourth title defense of 2025 in a December rematch against former champion Petr Yan. The winner of Nurmagomedov’s upcoming bout against Mario Bautista is widely expected to secure the next shot at the bantamweight champion. Nurmagomedov, installed as high as a 6-to-1 betting favorite, faces Bautista, who is riding an impressive eight-fight win streak. This fight serves as a pivotal opportunity for Nurmagomedov to re-establish his championship credentials and prove that, when fully healthy and with refined conditioning, he possesses the tools to trouble Dvalishvili.

5. Alexander Volkov’s Persistent Title Pursuit Meets Jailton Almeida’s Rising Threat

Alexander Volkov, the towering Russian heavyweight, finds himself once again navigating the intricate path to a UFC title shot. His five-fight winning streak was controversially snapped in December with a split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane, a verdict that garnered widespread disagreement from fans and analysts alike. This result echoed previous instances in Volkov’s career where a crucial victory seemed within grasp, only to slip away, reminiscent of his 2018 knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in the closing seconds of a fight he was clearly winning. Following the Gane bout, UFC CEO Dana White was reportedly seen consoling Volkov, acknowledging the questionable judging and promising to "take care of him" in the future. This promise has materialized into a key contender’s bout against the formidable Brazilian ground specialist, Jailton Almeida. Almeida boasts an impressive 8-1 record in the UFC, with seven of those victories coming by way of finish, including four via submission. He enters this fight as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s historically inconsistent takedown defense, an area Almeida is well-equipped to exploit. At 36, Volkov has long been a fixture in the heavyweight top tier, but the undisputed title has remained elusive for the former Bellator MMA champion. A victory over Almeida, provided he isn’t leapfrogged by a returning Jon Jones or a rapidly ascending Alex Pereira, would position Volkov firmly back in contention for a UFC title shot, potentially representing his most direct path yet to the coveted championship.