Denny Hamlin, a veteran of the NASCAR Cup Series for two decades, has consistently been a frontrunner, securing a top-five finish in the championship standings an impressive ten times. His illustrious career boasts 60 victories, placing him in a tie for tenth on the all-time wins list. He has claimed the prestigious Daytona 500 three times, secured three Southern 500 trophies, and has a Coca-Cola 600 title to his name, even winning the All-Star Race. Despite this remarkable resume, the ultimate prize—a NASCAR Cup Series championship—has eluded him. While many believed 2025 would finally be his year, a dramatic turn of events at Phoenix Raceway saw him leave empty-handed, extending his winless streak in championship bids to twenty attempts. This analysis revisits the pivotal moments where Hamlin has come agonizingly close to capturing the Bill France Cup.
2006: A Rookie’s Remarkable Entry
Hamlin’s inaugural season in the Cup Series, though not his closest brush with a championship, warrants mention. Competing under the former ten-race postseason format, and during Jimmie Johnson’s ascent to his historic five-year championship reign, Hamlin concluded the year 68 points behind Johnson. He also finished just 12 points shy of Matt Kenseth for the runner-up position. Under the scoring system of 2006, this margin represented the points difference between first and fifteenth place in a typical race, underscoring Hamlin’s immediate impact as a contender.
2010: The Finale Slip
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The 2010 season remains etched in NASCAR lore as Hamlin’s most agonizing near-miss for the championship. Entering the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 15-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, Hamlin’s aspirations unraveled early. A critical error just 25 laps into the race saw him make contact with Greg Biffle, resulting in a spin and splitter damage. Despite efforts to recover, Hamlin finished 14th, while Johnson secured a second-place finish, ultimately clinching the championship by 39 points. This marked Hamlin’s first and, until recently, only second-place finish in the championship standings.
2014: Inaugural Championship 4 Contender
The introduction of the elimination-style playoff format in 2014 saw Hamlin become one of the inaugural Championship 4 contenders. Alongside Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano, Hamlin battled for the title at Homestead-Miami. He led 50 laps, but Harvick demonstrated superior pace. During a pivotal late-race caution, Hamlin’s team made the strategic decision to stay out while his rivals pitted. Although Hamlin briefly held the lead, Harvick ultimately overtook him with seven laps remaining, followed by Newman. Hamlin finished the race third among the championship contenders, securing third place in the final standings.
2019: Engine Woes in a Teammate Showdown
In 2019, Hamlin found himself in another Championship 4, this time facing his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., as well as Kevin Harvick. The race was marred by a strategic miscalculation by Hamlin’s team, which applied excessive grill tape in an attempt to manage engine temperatures. With 50 laps remaining, the engine began to overheat and expel coolant, forcing Hamlin to pit to avoid catastrophic failure. As he pulled into his pit stall, coolant erupted from the No. 11 car. He finished the race in tenth place, concluding the championship fourth.
2020: Outmatched at Phoenix
The 2020 season marked the first time the championship finale was held at Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin, making his third consecutive Championship 4 appearance, found himself outmatched by the competition. He led no laps and finished fourth among the title contenders. Despite running within the top five for much of the race, Hamlin acknowledged he lacked the performance to challenge the Penske and Hendrick Motorsports entries.
2021: A Late Restart Gamble
Hamlin’s streak of Championship 4 appearances continued in 2021, his fourth consecutive berth. However, similar to the previous year, speed proved to be a limiting factor. He finished third in the race and the championship standings, again without leading a single lap. On the final restart, Hamlin was positioned on the front row alongside eventual champion Kyle Larson. Larson quickly established a gap before Turn 1, effectively sealing the outcome given the importance of clean air with the 550-horsepower package.
2022: The Unthinkable Elimination
While Hamlin did not reach the Championship 4 in 2022, his elimination from contention at Martinsville Speedway was one of the most shocking in recent memory. Entering the Round of 8 cutoff race needing to gain points on Ross Chastain, Hamlin appeared poised to advance. He held a comfortable position entering the final turn, holding a +2 point advantage over Chastain. However, Chastain executed a daring maneuver, driving against the outside wall at high speed, to beat Hamlin to the finish line by a mere inches, thus securing the final Championship 4 transfer spot. Hamlin was left in disbelief by the unconventional move that ended his title hopes.
2025: Forty Seconds from Glory
The 2025 season finale at Phoenix Raceway presented what many believed to be Hamlin’s most commanding opportunity to secure the championship. He dominated the race, leading over 200 laps and appearing to be on the verge of victory. With less than a lap to go and approximately 40 seconds away from taking the white flag, a caution flag for William Byron’s cut tire changed everything. Faced with a critical pit stop decision, Hamlin’s team opted for four fresh tires, dropping him from first to tenth on the restart. This decision proved to be a fatal miscalculation as Kyle Larson, on two tires, capitalized on the opportunity. Hamlin fought valiantly to regain positions but could only reach sixth place, while Larson, without leading a lap, secured the championship. This outcome left a visibly devastated Hamlin, who had executed a near-perfect race, once again empty-handed.
With 20 full-time seasons in the Cup Series and 60 victories, Denny Hamlin’s pursuit of a championship remains unfulfilled. With two years remaining on his contract with Joe Gibbs Racing, the 44-year-old driver still has opportunities to contend. However, the profound disappointment of the 2025 season finale, a race he so thoroughly dominated, will undoubtedly be the most difficult to overcome. Hamlin himself expressed his current emotional state, stating, "I plan to (race next year). I have a contract to, but there’s, at this point, there’s just absolutely no way that I would even… I don’t even think about the race car right now. Just yeah, I’m gonna need some time on this one.”
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