Data Delusion: Examining the Numbers Behind Aprilia's Perceived Challenge to Ducati's MotoGP Supremacy

In the fast-paced world of MotoGP, knee-jerk reactions and immediate assessments often overshadow the nuanced realities of the sport. This season, Aprilia’s undeniable progress has led to widespread speculation about a potential shift in power, suggesting that Ducati’s recent dominance is under threat. However, a deeper examination of the statistical data reveals that claims of Ducati’s stagnation may be an illusion, obfuscating the true picture of their performance and the factors influencing it.

Ducati’s achievements in the previous season set an exceptionally high benchmark. In 2024, the Italian manufacturer achieved a record-breaking campaign, securing 19 wins out of a possible 20, translating to a 95% success rate. Their bikes claimed 53 podium finishes out of 60 races, an impressive 88.3% success rate. Furthermore, Ducati achieved a clean sweep of the podium in 14 Grand Prix events. Accumulating a total of 722 points out of a maximum of 740, Ducati achieved an astonishing 98% strike rate.

The 2025 season, while not as statistically dominant as its predecessor, still showcases Ducati’s formidable presence on the track. The team secured 17 wins out of 22 races, a 77.3% success rate, achieved by four different riders. Ducati riders earned 44 podium finishes out of 66 races, representing a 66.6% success rate, and claimed all three podium positions in seven Grand Prix events. In total, the factory collected 768 points out of a possible 814, accounting for 94% of the maximum points available during the 2025 season.

Although the sheer dominance of 2024 may have waned, the statistical evidence does not support the assertion that Ducati’s performance has significantly weakened. In fact, the 2025 season marks the second-best in Ducati’s history. It is crucial to consider several factors that have undeniably influenced the slight regression in Ducati’s numbers.

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Two primary factors stand out: a reduction in the number of Ducati bikes on the grid and the impact of a significant injury to one of its key riders. Ducati reduced its presence from eight bikes to six, decreasing its representation in each race. Furthermore, Marc Marquez, a leading figure for Ducati, sustained a serious injury at the start of the Indonesian Grand Prix. This injury, which exacerbated the condition of his already compromised right arm, forced him to miss the final four rounds of the season. Coincidentally, three of Aprilia’s four wins this year—Australia, Portugal, and Valencia—occurred during Marquez’s absence.

Prior to the Australian Grand Prix, the first race Marquez missed, Ducati had won 16 of the 18 events held. The exceptions were the Silverstone race, where Marco Bezzecchi emerged victorious after Fabio Quartararo’s Yamaha engine failed, and the Le Mans race, where Johann Zarco secured an unexpected win for Honda amidst rainy conditions.

Another contributing factor to Ducati’s statistical shift is the departure of Pramac Racing, which transitioned to become Yamaha’s satellite team. This move resulted in the loss of two Desmosedici bikes from the grid, representing a 25% reduction in Ducati’s overall firepower. Notably, Pramac Racing had been the reigning world championship team in 2024, contributing three wins and 16 podiums through Jorge Martin, who secured the world championship that year.

In contrast, Aprilia experienced notable improvements, climbing from one win in 2024, secured by Maverick Vinales in Austin, to four wins this season, with three attributed to Bezzecchi and one to Raul Fernandez in Australia. In 2024, Aprilia’s lone Texas victory was accompanied by only one podium finish, marking an otherwise challenging year. However, in 2025, Aprilia riders reached the podium 11 times. The team’s point tally increased from 302 points in 2024 (41% of the total available) to 418 points in 2025 (51.4%), representing a 10 percentage point increase.

Aprilia’s performance reflects the second-largest improvement among manufacturers, surpassed only by Honda. However, concluding that this improvement automatically positions Aprilia as a genuine threat to Ducati is a perspective not universally shared.

Marco Bezzecchi expressed reservations about the notion of Aprilia as a direct rival to Ducati. Before securing his third win in Valencia, he stated, "We would like to be rivals of Ducati, but every year is a new story and nothing can be taken for granted. We must keep this mentality of focusing on our work. Ducati will start as the favorite. Marc won the title with five races to spare, so two victories are not enough for me to consider myself at his level."

Jorge Martin’s transition to Aprilia has been closely watched. Despite his proven track record, Martin has admitted to feeling like a "rookie" at times on the Aprilia bike, indicating the challenges of adapting to a new machine.

Ducati’s continued investment in innovation was evident at the Valencia MotoGP test, where they introduced a more extreme fairing solution, signaling their commitment to maintaining a competitive edge.

The statistical analysis reveals that while Aprilia has made significant strides, claims of Ducati’s decline and a shift in dominance may be premature. Ducati’s slight regression can be attributed to factors such as reduced grid presence and injuries to key riders, while Aprilia’s improvements do not yet position them as a clear and present danger to Ducati’s overall supremacy.

In summary, while Aprilia’s progress is undeniable and commendable, the data suggests that Ducati remains a formidable force in MotoGP. The perceived threat to Ducati’s dominance may be more of an illusion, driven by the immediacy of media coverage rather than a comprehensive analysis of the underlying factors.