COTA: The only NASCAR road course race SVG hasn’t conquered … yet

Shane van Gisbergen’s transition to NASCAR has been nothing short of spectacular, particularly on road and street circuits. The New Zealand native, a three-time Supercars champion, has demonstrated an exceptional talent for adapting his formidable road-racing prowess to the heavier, more powerful stock cars. His debut victory at the Chicago Street Course in 2023, a feat not achieved by a rookie in over six decades, immediately announced his arrival.

Following his full-time integration into the Trackhouse Racing program for the 2025 season, van Gisbergen’s dominance on road and street courses intensified. He secured pole positions and victories at Mexico City, Chicago, and Sonoma, while also starting on the front row and winning at Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval. Across these five events, van Gisbergen led an impressive 278 of 484 laps, a commanding 57% of the total laps contested.

However, the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) has proven to be an anomaly in his otherwise flawless road-course record. Van Gisbergen’s second Cup Series start at the Hermann Tilke-designed Formula 1 venue, and his first with the full support of Trackhouse Racing, saw him finish in sixth place. This followed his 2024 debut at COTA, where he finished 20th while competing part-time with Kaulig Racing.

The challenge at COTA extends beyond the Cup Series for van Gisbergen. In the 2024 NASCAR O’Reilly Series (now NASCAR Xfinity Series) race at the Texas track, he was a strong contender, leading 20 laps after starting from the front row. The battle for the win intensified with Austin Hill, but the contact between them allowed Kyle Larson to sweep past for the victory. Van Gisbergen crossed the finish line second, only to be relegated to 27th due to a track limits violation.

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Despite these setbacks, 2026 presents van Gisbergen with his most significant opportunity yet to add COTA to his list of conquered road courses and continue his exceptional winning streak. He is slated to compete in both the O’Reilly Series and the Cup Series races at the venue. Having now completed a full season of Cup Series competition, van Gisbergen brings a wealth of experience and a deeper understanding of the series’ nuances. Furthermore, his recent performance at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where he achieved a career-best sixth-place finish on an oval, demonstrates his growing versatility and the positive momentum he carries into the season. This strong oval showing also likely places him in a preferred qualifying group for the COTA race weekend.

It is also noteworthy that NASCAR has implemented a revised, shortened layout for COTA ahead of the 2025 season, which may influence race dynamics. As van Gisbergen aims to maintain his unparalleled road-course form, the question remains: who among the competition possesses the strongest challenge to dethrone him and claim victory before he can secure his maiden win at COTA?

Potential Challengers at COTA:

A review of past performances at COTA in the Next Gen era highlights several drivers with a proven track record on the 3.41-mile road course:

• Past Winners in the Next Gen Era: Christopher Bell (2025), William Byron (2024), Tyler Reddick (2023), and Ross Chastain (2022) have all stood victorious at COTA.
• Best Average Finish at COTA:
  1. Tyler Reddick: 4.6
  2. Alex Bowman: 5.2
  3. Ross Chastain: 5.6
• Best Average Start at COTA:
  1. Tyler Reddick: 2.2
  2. Chase Elliott: 8.0
  3. Daniel Suarez: 9.2
• Most Laps Led at COTA:
  1. William Byron: 71
  2. Kyle Busch: 54
  3. Tyler Reddick: 53
• Most Poles at COTA:
  1. Tyler Reddick: 2
  2. William Byron: 2
  3. Ryan Blaney: 1

Top Favorite Beyond SVG:

Tyler Reddick emerges as the primary threat to van Gisbergen’s road-course supremacy. Reddick, driving the No. 45 Toyota for 23XI Racing, is in exceptional form, having recently secured victories in the Daytona 500 and the Atlanta Cup races. He is currently on a quest to win three consecutive races to open the 2026 season. His statistical advantage at COTA is undeniable, leading the entire field with an average finish of 4.6 across his five starts. During these appearances, he has captured two pole positions, achieved four top-five finishes, and secured a notable victory in 2023. His worst career finish at COTA is ninth, and no other driver boasts more top-five and top-ten results at the circuit.

The Defending Winner:

Christopher Bell, piloting the No. 20 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, is the defending winner at COTA, having triumphed in 2025. While his 2026 season has encountered early difficulties, with his current standing at 31st in the points following incidents at Daytona and Atlanta, COTA could serve as the ideal venue for a significant rebound. Bell is not only the reigning COTA victor but also the only driver to have achieved three podium finishes at the challenging road course. His record at the circuit is remarkable; he has never finished lower than third in any COTA race where he has successfully completed the race distance.

The Emerging Talent:

A significant factor to watch is Connor Zilisch, van Gisbergen’s teammate at Trackhouse Racing. Zilisch, a prodigious talent, has already showcased his road-racing prowess in the O’Reilly Series, engaging in several closely contested battles with van Gisbergen himself. While his transition to the Cup Series presents a steep learning curve, Zilisch demonstrated promising pace in his Cup debut at COTA last year before a mid-race incident. Though the machinery differs significantly, Zilisch also claimed victory in the O’Reilly Series race at COTA in 2025, leading 26 of 65 laps. His development will be closely monitored throughout the weekend, as he represents an intriguing wildcard presence within the competitive field.

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