College Football Playoff Contenders Face Scrutiny as Week 11 Exposes Critical Flaws and Sharpens Postseason Outlook.

Week 11 of the college football season delivered a blend of near-misses and significant upsets, offering a clearer, albeit still complex, picture of the College Football Playoff landscape. Several top-ranked teams narrowly avoided defeat, while others succumbed to unexpected challenges, reshaping the contender hierarchy with just three regular-season Saturdays remaining before Championship Week.

No. 2 Indiana faced a significant test on the road against Penn State, ultimately surviving thanks to a pivotal toe-tap reception by wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. No. 9 Oregon also flirted with disaster, needing an Atticus Sappington field goal to escape a tough challenge from Iowa. Auburn, seeking a breakthrough win against a ranked opponent, fell in overtime to Vanderbilt, propelled by Diego Pavia’s late heroics. The drama extended beyond the FBS level, with top-ranked FCS and Division II teams like North Dakota State and Ferris State trailing late before staging rallies.

Despite these close calls, Week 11 was not without its upsets. Two more top-15 ACC teams suffered losses, a recurring theme in the conference this season. No. 23 Washington was defeated by 2-6 Wisconsin in Madison, while Hawai’i ended San Diego State’s playoff aspirations late Saturday night. The ACC race remains highly unpredictable, but the weekend’s results provided a degree of clarity for the expanded College Football Playoff field.

Utilizing a comprehensive formula that combines the Allstate Playoff Predictor odds with SP+-derived probabilities, eight teams currently hold at least an 81% chance of securing a spot in the 12-team playoff field. A multitude of other programs are vying for the remaining four berths. This analysis delves into the most significant vulnerabilities of these contenders, identifying the "toxic traits" that could either prevent them from reaching the CFP altogether or hinder their pursuit of a national championship.

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Tier 1: Undefeated Frontrunners

These three teams, all boasting perfect records, are on the cusp of clinching playoff bids. For this tier, the focus shifts from merely reaching the CFP to identifying the inherent flaws that could impede their national title aspirations.

Indiana (10-0 overall, average CFP odds: 99.9%): Big-play Vulnerability. The Hoosiers’ defense, under the direction of Curt Cignetti and Bryant Haines, has been a cornerstone of their unbeaten season. However, it has shown a tendency to concede highly successful plays when breached. This was evident against Penn State, where Nicholas Singleton broke a 59-yard run. Additionally, Indiana’s defense allowed six completions of 19 yards or more to a Penn State passing attack that had been inconsistent. Coupled with an ill-timed interception from quarterback Fernando Mendoza, these big-play lapses nearly cost Indiana its perfect record.
Ohio State (9-0 overall, average CFP odds: 99.6%): Adequate, Not Elite, Run Game. While Indiana’s remaining schedule gives them a slight edge in CFP odds, Ohio State remains the top-ranked team by computer metrics. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation in points per drive and yards per play, while their offense features Jeremiah Smith, widely considered the nation’s best receiver, and quarterback Julian Sayin, who is completing over 80% of his passes. Sayin, a redshirt freshman, will face formidable defenses in the upcoming weeks, including a Michigan defense ranked ninth in defensive SP+, a potentially Big Ten championship opponent in Indiana (fourth in defensive SP+), and the elite units expected in the CFP. Ohio State’s run game, ranking 19th nationally in rushing success rate (gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, 100% on third/fourth) but only averaging 4.7 yards per carry, could render the offense one-dimensional against these top-tier opponents, placing immense pressure on Sayin’s arm.
Texas A&M (9-0 overall, average CFP odds: 99.3%): Run Defense Deficiencies. Texas A&M showcased its offensive versatility in a dominant victory over Missouri, despite facing a third-string freshman quarterback in Matt Zollers. The Aggies demonstrated a potent passing game, an elite pass rush, and a strong second-half ground attack. However, even against a pass-limited Missouri offense, A&M surrendered 207 rushing yards. This continues a concerning trend, as Texas A&M ranks 130th nationally in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks). Sustaining a playoff run through three or four games against elite competition with such a significant defensive vulnerability against the run appears to be a substantial challenge.

Tier 2: One-Loss Contenders

This tier comprises five teams, four from the Big Ten or SEC, and Texas Tech, whose strong performance places them firmly in contention. While these teams are well-positioned, the "fatal flaws" outlined here could still prevent them from reaching the CFP or winning the national title.

Texas Tech (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 90.1%): Quarterback Consistency. Texas Tech’s "dream season" continues, marked by convincing victories over its only two SP+ top-40 opponents by a combined 63-17. Despite this success, the Red Raiders’ passing game, traditionally a strength for the program, is merely good, not great. Quarterback Behren Morton has been prone to injuries and ranks 45th in Total QBR. While Tech has scored 34 or more points in eight games, they rank 53rd in three-and-out rate, indicating potential struggles against elite defenses.
Ole Miss (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 87.7%): Balanced Run Game Deficit. The emergence of Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback has provided Ole Miss with a new offensive dimension, combining efficient passing with occasional strong running. Running back Kewan Lacy also ranks among the national leaders in rushing yards and touchdowns. However, Ole Miss averages only 4.8 yards per carry while also allowing opponents the same average. Their passing game holds significant advantages (8.7 yards per dropback offensively vs. 5.6 allowed defensively), but relying solely on the aerial attack against top-tier playoff opponents without a consistent, dominant run game (Plan B) could prove challenging over multiple games.
Oregon (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 87.0%): Scoring Against Elite Defenses. Oregon’s defense has steadily improved, demonstrated by their resourceful victory over Iowa in adverse weather conditions. However, in their five games against SP+ top-50 defenses, the Ducks have averaged only 22.0 points per game in regulation. Quarterback Dante Moore’s average of 9.2 yards per completion in these games is significantly lower than his 15.3 yards against other opponents. While their run game is consistently strong, Moore’s ability to make critical throws under pressure against a series of elite defenses in the playoff remains a key question.
Georgia (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 85.4%): Slow Defensive Starts. Georgia demonstrated its capability by dismantling Mississippi State early in Week 11. Yet, season-long statistics reveal a concerning trend: the Bulldogs rank 74th nationally in points allowed per drive (2.1) and 106th in success rate allowed (44.8%) during the first half of games. Consistently taking 30-45 minutes to find their rhythm defensively could be detrimental when facing a gauntlet of elite playoff teams.
Alabama (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 81.0%): Non-existent Run Game. Alabama’s struggles with the run game are pronounced on both sides of the ball. They rank 83rd in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks), despite a respectable performance against LSU’s run game. More critically, their own rushing attack struggles, exemplified by Jam Miller and Daniel Hill combining for just 34 yards on 15 carries against LSU. Alabama ranks 126th nationally in yards per carry, placing significant pressure on quarterback Ty Simpson and the passing game to carry the offensive load exclusively.

Tier 3: Contenders with Decent Chances

This tier features Notre Dame (a two-loss team, but highly ranked) and BYU and Georgia Tech (one-loss teams with recent demoralizing defeats). While their paths are more precarious, each retains a viable, albeit challenging, route to the CFP.

Notre Dame (8-2 overall, average CFP odds: 59.6%): Third-and-Long Situations. Notre Dame frequently faces third-and-long situations on offense and struggles to prevent conversions on defense. Due to negative run plays, quarterback CJ Carr and the offense have faced third downs requiring at least seven yards on 50% of their attempts, ranking 86th nationally. While they convert an impressive 46.9% of these, this rate is likely unsustainable against elite defenses. Defensively, they rank 87th in third-and-long conversion rate allowed, indicating a struggle to get off the field.
BYU (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 45.4%): Limited Offensive Threat. Despite their recent loss to Texas Tech, BYU possesses strengths in pass defense and in creating/avoiding negative plays. However, against two SP+ top-30 defenses, they have scored a combined 31 points, averaging just 4.8 yards per play. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has performed well, but the offense as a whole has struggled to provide him sufficient support against the strongest defensive units.
Georgia Tech (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 37.4%): Defensive Inconsistency. The Yellow Jackets’ defense ranks 82nd in points allowed per drive, indicating a general struggle. They lack efficiency (87th in success rate) and are susceptible to explosive plays (113th in percentage of 20-yard gains allowed). While Haynes King and the offense are dynamic, the defense’s performance in a 48-36 loss to NC State in Week 10 suggests a vulnerability that could resurface.

Tier 4a: Non-ACC Contenders

These teams are in a "win out" scenario, needing flawless finishes to bolster their CFP chances. SP+ projections indicate that only Utah has a greater than 35% chance of achieving an undefeated finish to the regular season, and even a 10-2 Utah team might lack the resume to secure a bid.

Texas (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 28.0%): Negative Play Tendencies. Texas has been hampered by offensive line issues, ranking 108th in stuff rate allowed (run stops at or behind the line) and 122nd in pressure rate allowed. Running back injuries and quarterback Arch Manning’s tendency to hold the ball have exacerbated these problems. While line adjustments showed promise against Vanderbilt, a sudden transformation into an offensive line strength in November is a demanding expectation.
Oklahoma (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 27.0%): Offensive Errors. Oklahoma’s defense, even after facing two top-10 offenses, ranks fifth in points allowed per drive and first in success rate allowed. The defense consistently performs. The offense, however, has struggled with a lack of big plays (102nd in yards per successful play), too many negative plays (84th in percentage of snaps gaining zero or negative yards), and turnovers (12 turnovers, 71st nationally).
Utah (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 25.6%): Unreliable Explosiveness. In their seven victories, the Utes have been dominant, averaging a 46-10 scoreline. Yet, in their two losses, they managed only 31 combined points, exhibiting below-average efficiency, minimal big-play presence, and six turnovers. Quarterback Devon Dampier’s 10.3 yards per completion average, even including their wins, points to a lack of consistent explosive plays that could prove to be their undoing.
Vanderbilt (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 25.5%): Fading Defense. While many contenders face offensive issues, Vanderbilt’s offense has performed admirably, scoring 38 points against an Auburn defense that had been allowing 17.0 points per game. However, after surrendering 34 points to Texas and 38 to Auburn, Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 84th in points allowed per drive and a concerning 124th in completion rate allowed.
USC (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 15.8%): Permeable Run Defense. Head coach Lincoln Riley’s long-standing challenge has been to build a top-40 defense. USC is currently 42nd in defensive SP+, a close but insufficient mark. To reach the CFP, they will likely need to defeat Iowa and Oregon, both of whom possess offenses capable of exploiting USC’s passive run defense, which ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed. While USC can manage a bend-don’t-break approach, this level of bending against the run is excessive.
Michigan (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 7.6%): Lack of Offensive Risk/Reward. Michigan excels at running the ball and preventing big plays, while freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood takes minimal risks. The primary issue lies in their inability to force the issue offensively. They struggle to disrupt opponents’ defensive rhythm to capitalize on their strong pass rush. Underwood ranks 95th in completion rate (60.9%) among QBR-eligible quarterbacks, despite ranking 86th in air yards per attempt (7.6), indicating a conservative approach that might lack the explosiveness required for a deep playoff run.

Tier 4b: ACC Contenders

The ACC title race is particularly muddled after Louisville and Virginia both suffered losses in Week 11. Georgia Tech is in Tier 3, but there remains a 74.5% chance that another team will emerge as conference champion.

Miami (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 15.7%): Limited Big Plays. Despite two demoralizing losses, the Hurricanes still have a playoff path. However, their offense has underperformed projections in five of six games, primarily due to a striking lack of explosiveness. They possess Georgia’s offensive efficiency but Kentucky’s explosiveness, indicating a struggle to generate easy points, which will likely be a significant hurdle.
Virginia (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 14.5%): Faltering Offense. Even before Chandler Morris’s injury in the loss to Wake Forest, Virginia’s offense had shown a clear decline. Their first six games saw averages of 6.4 yards per play, a 46.5% success rate, and 3.25 points per drive. In their last four games, these figures dropped to 5.0 yards per play, 37.0% success rate, and 1.37 points per drive. Their 8-1 start was remarkable but unsustainable given this trend. An upcoming elimination game against Duke will test their ability to rebound.
SMU (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 11.8%): Inconsistent Offensive Efficiency. SMU has won five of its last six games, fueled by a strong defense and an offense capable of generating chunk plays from receivers Romello Brinson and Jordan Hudson, and running back Chris Johnson Jr. However, despite recent improvements, the Mustangs rank 86th in success rate and 114th in three-and-out rate. This inconsistency will make defeating Louisville, Cal, and a potential ACC championship opponent extremely challenging.
Louisville (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 8.1%): Excessive Negative Plays. In their 29-26 upset loss to Cal, Louisville ran 69 plays, 29 of which (42.0%) resulted in zero or negative yardage. They gained positive yardage on only four of their last 13 snaps. This raised their season average to 35.0% of plays gaining zero or negative yards, ranking 116th nationally. Running back injuries and unreliable quarterback and offensive line play are significant factors contributing to this detrimental trend.
Pittsburgh (5-4 overall, average CFP odds: 7.8%): Red Zone and Turnover Issues. Pitt is on a five-game winning streak since freshman Mason Heintschel took over at quarterback. While a CFP berth is unlikely, they are positioned to impact the ACC race with upcoming games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami. Pitt’s defense is strong, ranking fourth in three-and-out rate, but struggles in the red zone, allowing a 112th-ranked touchdown rate. Offensively, even with Heintschel, they rank 78th in red zone touchdown rate and 73rd in turnover rate.

Tier (Group of) 5: Underdog Hopefuls

With Memphis and San Diego State largely eliminated in Week 11, the Group of 5 playoff picture now focuses on James Madison (with roughly a 1-in-3 chance) and the eventual champion of the American Athletic Conference.

James Madison (9-0 overall, average CFP odds: 34.3%): Turnovers and Special Teams Miscues. James Madison boasts a formidable defense, ranking third in success rate allowed (31.2%) and eighth in yards allowed per play (4.5). However, they have conceded at least 20 points against all four top-60 offenses they’ve faced, partly due to turnovers (including two fumble-return scores) and short fields generated by special teams issues. While generally excellent, these egregious breakdowns are unaffordable for an underdog in the CFP.
North Texas (8-1 overall, average CFP odds: 28.3%): Susceptible Run Defense. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is on pace for approximately 4,000 passing yards, and UNT’s offense ranks third nationally in points per drive. The defense, often a concern, ranks a solid 26th in yards allowed per dropback. However, North Texas is 125th in rushing success rate allowed. In their sole loss to USF, they surrendered 306 rushing yards, a damning statistic for their playoff aspirations.
South Florida (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 22.4%): Porous Pass Defense. Like North Texas, USF’s offense is capable of scoring in various ways, and their run defense effectively limits opponents. However, their pass defense is a liability. They rank 73rd in both third-down conversion rate allowed and sack rate. In their two losses, opponents completed 69% of their passes, indicating a vulnerability that could be exploited by strong passing teams.
Tulane (7-2 overall, average CFP odds: 7.5%): Defensive Inefficiency. Tulane occasionally showcases the profile of a playoff contender, holding two power-conference wins. Yet, their defense ranks 117th in success rate allowed and struggles to generate negative plays. In their two losses, the defense significantly underperformed, allowing a combined 93 points and 1,071 yards to Ole Miss and UTSA, indicating an inconsistency that could hinder a playoff push.

SP+ Rankings Update: Week 11 Shifts

The updated SP+ rankings for Week 11 reveal several notable movements in overall team ratings.

Significant Risers:

Hawai’i: +4.1 adjusted points per game (90th to 72nd). Hawai’i’s blowout victory over San Diego State was a highlight of their season, which sees them at 7-3 and 72nd in SP+, their highest ranking since 2010.
Utah State: +3.3 points (95th to 79th).
Akron: +3.1 points (126th to 123rd).
Florida International: +3.1 points (125th to 118th).
Kentucky: +3.1 points (63rd to 52nd). Kentucky has exceeded SP+ projections by double digits in three of its last four games, winning two straight to reach 4-5 and keep bowl hopes alive, demonstrating a strong second-half improvement.

Significant Fallers:

San Diego State: -4.5 points (44th to 56th).
Navy: -4.0 points (50th to 63rd).
Florida: -3.1 points (39th to 48th).
Nevada: -2.8 points (123rd to 128th).
BYU: -2.8 points (16th to 22nd). BYU’s offensive SP+ ranking dropped from 25th to 39th after quarterback Bear Bachmeier struggled against Texas Tech’s hostile defense and crowd, averaging just 4.7 yards per dropback, throwing a game-clinching interception, and losing a late fumble.

Heisman Watch: Week 11 Standouts and Season Leaders

The Heisman Trophy race saw compelling individual performances in Week 11. Here are the top 10 performers for the week, receiving points on an F1-style scale (10 for first, 9 for second, etc.):

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 25-for-33 passing for 377 yards, 3 touchdowns; 114 non-sack rushing yards, 1 touchdown vs. Auburn.
Emmett Johnson, Nebraska: 28 carries for 129 yards, 1 touchdown; 103 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns vs. UCLA.
Jake Retzlaff, Tulane: 16-for-23 passing for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns; 53 non-sack rushing yards, 1 touchdown vs. Memphis.
Byrum Brown, USF: 14-for-15 passing for 239 yards, 2 touchdowns; 109 non-sack rushing yards, 1 touchdown vs. UTSA.
Ashton Daniels, Auburn: 31-for-44 passing for 353 yards, 2 touchdowns; 103 non-sack rushing yards, 2 touchdowns vs. Vanderbilt.
Bryun Parham, UConn: 16 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 interception vs. Duke.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 27-for-33 passing for 303 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception vs. Purdue.
Isaiah Smith, SMU: 9 tackles, 4 sacks vs. Boston College.
Beau Sparks, Texas State: 10 catches for 186 yards, 1 touchdown; 49-yard touchdown run vs. Louisiana.
Antwan Raymond, Rutgers: 41 carries for 240 yards, 1 touchdown vs. Maryland.

Season Points Leaders (Through Week 11):

Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 29 points (20 in the past four weeks)
Ty Simpson, Alabama: 29 points (0 in the past four weeks)
Taylen Green, Arkansas: 27 points
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 25 points
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 24 points
Demond Williams Jr., Washington: 21 points
Gunner Stockton, Georgia: 19 points (10 in the past four weeks)
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: 19 points (9 in the past four weeks)
Luke Altmyer, Illinois: 16 points
Jake Retzlaff, Tulane: 14 points

The Heisman betting markets experienced significant fluctuation following Week 11. Julian Sayin, who entered the week as the betting favorite, completed 27 of 33 passes for 303 yards, one touchdown, and one interception (occurring with Ohio State holding a significant lead) against Purdue, maintaining a season completion rate above 80%. Conversely, Fernando Mendoza of Indiana completed 19 of 30 passes for 218 yards against a Penn State defense that Sayin had previously dissected. Mendoza recorded his lowest yards per dropback and Total QBR since Week 1 and threw a critical fourth-quarter interception that nearly cost Indiana the game. However, Mendoza led a late game-winning drive, culminating in Omar Cooper Jr.’s spectacular touchdown catch, which subsequently positioned Mendoza as the new Heisman betting favorite. This market shift highlights the significant impact of dramatic game-winning moments on individual player narratives.

Weekend’s Most Dramatic Games

Week 11 delivered a series of thrilling contests across all divisions of college football.

No. 2 Indiana 27, Penn State 24: A high-stakes Big Ten battle where Indiana drove 80 yards in 1:15 to secure a dramatic game-winning touchdown.
Delaware 25, Louisiana Tech 24: Delaware staged a remarkable comeback, scoring twice in the final minutes, including a game-winning 51-yard field goal after recovering an onside kick, following Louisiana Tech’s quick 14-point swing to take the lead.
No. 9 Oregon 18, No. 20 Iowa 16: A hard-fought contest in cold, rainy conditions that saw Oregon’s Dante Moore and Atticus Sappington prove their mettle with a crucial late field goal.
No. 16 Vanderbilt 45, Auburn 38 (OT): Vanderbilt rallied from an early 14-point deficit, nearly collapsing at the end of regulation before Diego Pavia’s third touchdown pass in overtime secured the victory.
FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State 15, No. 15 North Dakota 10: NDSU, typically dominant, trailed 10-9 entering the fourth quarter against its in-state rival. A late touchdown and a game-sealing interception preserved their unbeaten record.
UConn 37, Duke 34: A back-and-forth affair with 10 lead changes, including all six in the second half. UConn sealed the win with a touchdown with 1:58 remaining, followed by a sack-and-strip recovery in the closing seconds.
Sam Houston 21, Oregon State 17: Oregon State squandered a 17-0 lead, falling victim to an interception-turned-touchdown, a kick return touchdown, and a blocked punt return for a score. Sam Houston secured its first win of the season despite a 474-157 yardage disadvantage.

Midweek Preview: MACtion Heating Up

The midweek MACtion slate kicks off with Ohio at Western Michigan (Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Ohio’s recent victory over Miami (Ohio) gives the Bobcats a slight lead in the conference title race, but the picture remains incredibly tight. Current MAC title odds, according to SP+, are Ohio 22.2%, Toledo 20.2%, Western Michigan 20.1%, Miami 19.2%, and Buffalo 16.7%. The winner of this contest will gain a crucial advantage in the tightly contested race.