Ali Akbar Rosady
The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee has unveiled its inaugural rankings for the season, immediately igniting discussions and outlining a challenging path for several contenders, particularly those from the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). With no ACC teams initially cracking the top 12, the conference’s sole projected representative in a hypothetical playoff bracket would be No. 14 Virginia, leveraging its position as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion, a guaranteed entry under the current format. Other ACC hopefuls, such as No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami, find themselves outside the immediate playoff picture, with Miami’s recent loss at SMU overshadowing its earlier head-to-head victory against No. 10 Notre Dame. While the season remains fluid, and teams retain opportunities to bolster or damage their resumes, distinct separation is already evident among the contenders. SportsBreakNews.com’s Bubble Watch categorizes teams based on their standing: "Would be in" signifies inclusion in the current bracket, "Last team in" and "First team out" denote teams on the cusp of inclusion, "Still in the mix" indicates teams with work ahead, and "Out" marks elimination for the current season. The following analysis reviews the landscape by conference, ordered by the number of bids they would receive based on the committee’s first ranking.
Southeastern Conference (SEC)
The SEC demonstrates its perennial strength with four teams currently projected into the 12-team playoff field.
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Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels currently occupy a secure position within the playoff projection, though their long-term security hinges on a perfect finish to the regular season. With remaining matchups against The Citadel, Florida, and an away game at rival Mississippi State, the schedule offers no opportunity for a "quality loss." Historical data suggests that November defeats are significantly more detrimental to playoff aspirations than early-season stumbles. Ole Miss is heavily favored in its remaining contests, boasting at least a 72% chance of victory in each and a 55.4% likelihood (seventh-best nationally) of running the table. Should an upset occur, a second loss would relegate the Rebels to the two-loss tier, potentially putting them at a disadvantage in comparison to other two-loss teams possessing more impactful victories and avoiding losses to unranked opponents. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is ranked No. 56 nationally. In a two-loss scenario, Ole Miss would need to rely heavily on its earlier wins against Oklahoma, Tulane, and LSU to impress the committee sufficiently for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns received a substantial boost in this week’s ranking, partly due to the committee’s reevaluation following losses by Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Miami, and also by securing another CFP top-25 victory against the Commodores. Their head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also prove advantageous in committee deliberations. However, if Texas, currently positioned around No. 11 or No. 12, remains in that range and the ACC and Group of Five champions are ranked outside the committee’s top 12, the Longhorns could be displaced during the seeding process. This displacement would accommodate the mandated inclusion of the fourth and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, who are guaranteed playoff spots.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Oklahoma Sooners significantly enhanced their resume with a road victory against No. 25 Tennessee, adding to their existing CFP top-25 win against Michigan. For Vanderbilt, a two-loss team, a narrow road defeat to Texas is not considered an eliminator. Missouri, with losses only to Alabama and Vanderbilt, currently lacks a signature win to offset these defeats. An opportunity to change this narrative arises with a pivotal matchup against Texas A&M scheduled for Saturday.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee.
Big Ten Conference
The Big Ten sees three of its top programs projected into the initial playoff field.
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks face a more demanding latter half of their season, providing the committee with a clearer assessment of their true caliber. To date, Oregon’s most significant victory came on September 13 against Northwestern. While the Ducks have largely passed the "eye test" with impressive performances, their opponents hold a combined winning percentage of 47.2%, ranking their strength of schedule at No. 116 nationally. The committee is expected to acknowledge their double-overtime win at Penn State but also recognize that the Nittany Lions were not operating at an elite level, even with James Franklin coaching. With challenging road trips to Iowa and Washington – both respectable two-loss teams – and a crucial November 22 home game against USC, Oregon has the opportunity to solidify its position within the top 12 or risk falling out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses occurred on the road against quality opponents (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a narrow combined margin of 12 points. Their most notable victory was on October 11 against Michigan. However, USC possesses a significant opportunity to redefine its playoff narrative this month, particularly with a pivotal contest in Eugene against Oregon on November 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC holds the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten (18%) to reach the playoff, marginally ahead of Michigan. The Oregon game is the only remaining fixture where the Trojans are not favored. Should they secure an upset victory and finish with a 10-2 record, the committee would undoubtedly give strong consideration for an at-large berth.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. All three teams were included in the committee’s initial rankings. No. 20 Iowa faces the shortest climb into serious contention and has a prime opportunity for a marquee win when it hosts No. 9 Oregon on Saturday. Michigan still has a path to impress the committee by potentially running the table, culminating in a victory against No. 1 Ohio State. However, their head-to-head loss to USC presents a significant obstacle in both Big Ten standings and CFP rankings. This issue could be mitigated if USC incurs another loss, thereby making their records less directly comparable. Additionally, a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma further complicates Michigan’s resume. Despite these challenges, the Allstate Playoff Predictor assigns Michigan a 13.2% chance of reaching the playoff.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin.
Big 12 Conference
The Big 12 sees two teams initially placed within the playoff picture.
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. Should Texas Tech suffer a loss to BYU this Saturday but still manage to win the Big 12 conference championship, they would be a lock for the CFP. The more precarious scenario arises if the Red Raiders incur a second conference loss, which would necessitate external help to even reach the Big 12 championship game. Consequently, a loss to BYU could severely damage both their conference title and CFP aspirations. Conversely, if Texas Tech defeats BYU on Saturday but then loses to them in the Big 12 championship game, they would still retain an opportunity for an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. In this scenario, they could claim a victory over the eventual Big 12 champions, providing a crucial boost to their resume. The committee’s assessment would likely consider the nature and score of such a championship game. BYU represents the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as they conclude their season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes find themselves in a challenging position, having sustained their two losses against the Big 12’s top-ranked teams, BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still possesses the third-best chance (22.2%) to reach the Big 12 title game but requires assistance from other results. With their best wins coming against Arizona State and Cincinnati, earning an at-large bid without securing a victory against at least one of their league’s top contenders could prove difficult. Nevertheless, any significant movement among teams ranked above them could quickly promote the Utes given their current bubble position following the initial ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The unranked Bearcats are included in this category due to their 18% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. Their single league loss offers a slim glimmer of hope, though their other defeat occurred in the season opener against Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia.
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
The ACC faces an uphill battle, with only one team projected into the playoff field, and only by virtue of a conference championship.
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Similar to Georgia Tech, Virginia’s sole loss is a road defeat to NC State, but it was an early four-point contest compared to the Yellow Jackets’ double-digit loss. Virginia also holds a crucial head-to-head victory against Louisville, which stands as the Hoos’ best win of the season and their only one against a CFP top-25 opponent. Virginia’s path to the playoff hinges on winning the ACC championship, even if they remain ranked outside the committee’s top 12, mirroring Clemson’s three-loss entry last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals suffered an overtime home loss to Virginia on October 4 but subsequently secured a statement road win against Miami on October 17. Louisville is projected to have only one victory this season against a CFP top-25 team, which significantly complicates their chances of earning an at-large bid. Louisville’s most viable route to the playoff involves running the table, benefiting from losses by higher-ranked teams, and ultimately winning the ACC. ESPN Analytics gives Louisville a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, ranking them fourth behind Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of these teams securing an at-large bid diminished considerably following Tuesday’s rankings. However, any team that still possesses a legitimate chance to win its conference will have a pathway to a playoff spot, and these teams all remain technically in contention for the ACC title. Virginia currently holds the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami’s probability of reaching the championship game is notably lower at just 2.7%, trailing both Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest.
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, as key losses by Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Miami cleared a path for the 6-2 Irish to re-enter the top 10 after their victory over Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to effectively nullify the head-to-head loss to Miami proved critical for both programs, rewarding Notre Dame for its "eye test" performance and a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame possesses the highest probability among all teams nationally to finish the regular season undefeated (64.3%), though a challenging November 15 road trip to Pitt looms large. The Panthers are in strong form, having won five consecutive games, and will benefit from a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain precarious until the final whistle at Stanford, contingent on achieving a 10-2 record.
Group of Five
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) this week, Memphis would secure a playoff berth as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Although Memphis was not explicitly ranked within the committee’s publicly released top 25, the selection process dictates that teams are ranked until a Group of Five representative is included, with the chosen team then publicized without revealing the full internal ranking of all teams considered. The October 25 victory against South Florida was crucial in the AAC race, but their loss to 3-5 UAB remains a blemish on the Tigers’ resume that can be overcome by securing a conference title. Memphis holds at least a 57% chance of winning each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head victories against Boise State and North Texas in their evaluations.
Projected Playoff Bracket
Based on the committee’s initial rankings and the established playoff format, the projected seeding for the 12-team playoff would be:
First-round byes
- No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
- No. 2 Indiana
- No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
- No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
(On campus sites, December 19 and 20)
- No. 12 Memphis (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Virginia (ACC Champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
- No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 Champion)
- No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
(At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential, and Allstate Sugar Bowl on December 31 and January 1)
- Winner of No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
- Winner of No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
- Winner of No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU vs. No. 2 Indiana
- Winner of No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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