Ali Akbar RosadyFollowing what has been described as a chaotic and unpredictable 2025 across the mixed martial arts landscape, projections for 2026 indicate a year poised for even greater upheaval, both inside the octagon and within the sport’s intricate power structures. Central to these discussions are the perennial questions surrounding the potential return of Conor McGregor, the enduring legacy of Jon Jones, and the championship aspirations of rising stars like Khamzat Chimaev and established champions such as Ilia Topuria.
A recent special edition of the combat sports analysis program On To the Next One, hosted by veteran analysts Mike Heck and Alexander K. Lee, delved into a comprehensive "2026 predictions extravaganza." The program addressed a series of "buy/sell" questions from listeners, encompassing a wide array of figures including McGregor, Jones, Chimaev, Topuria, Francis Ngannou, Dana White, Tom Aspinall, Israel Adesanya, and Nate Diaz. The analysts also put forward their projections for year-end UFC champions in each division, alongside a series of bold predictions for the sport.
The Enduring Enigma of Conor McGregor
The question of whether Conor McGregor will step back into the UFC octagon in 2026 remains arguably the most compelling and frequently debated topic in mixed martial arts. McGregor, who last competed in July 2021 at UFC 264, suffering a leg injury against Dustin Poirier, has been a specter haunting the sport’s imagination. His record stands at 22 wins and 6 losses, with his last victory dating back to January 2020 against Donald Cerrone. Since then, despite numerous pronouncements and a prolonged build-up to a potential bout against Michael Chandler, a concrete return date has consistently eluded fans and promoters alike.
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Analysts Heck and Lee discussed the diminishing likelihood of a high-level competitive return versus the undiminished financial incentive. McGregor’s unparalleled drawing power, even after a multi-year hiatus, ensures that any fight he takes will shatter pay-per-view records. However, the physical toll of his injury, combined with the demands of an elite training camp necessary to compete against the current crop of lightweight and welterweight contenders, presents a formidable barrier. The ‘buy’ argument for McGregor fighting in 2026 hinges primarily on a significant financial offer or a strategic matchup that minimizes risk while maximizing exposure. Conversely, the ‘sell’ argument emphasizes his established business ventures outside the octagon and the potential for further injuries that could impact his long-term health and financial interests. Should he return, potential opponents could range from a long-awaited clash with Chandler, a trilogy bout with Nate Diaz, or even a highly ambitious challenge against a reigning champion like Ilia Topuria, a matchup Topuria himself has expressed interest in. The logistical challenges, including his re-entry into the USADA testing pool (or whatever anti-doping program the UFC employs by 2026), would also need to be navigated meticulously.
Championship Aspirations: Topuria’s Reign and Chimaev’s Ascendancy
Ilia Topuria, the reigning UFC Featherweight Champion, entered 2026 as one of the sport’s most dominant figures. His meteoric rise culminated in a stunning knockout victory over long-time king Alexander Volkanovski, solidifying his undefeated professional record. Topuria’s aggressive, high-pressure striking and potent grappling have made him a formidable force in the 145-pound division. Looking ahead to 2026, analysts predict that Topuria will face a series of challenging contenders, potentially including former champions like Max Holloway or rising stars such as Movsar Evloev. His ambition to achieve ‘double-champ’ status or even a super-fight with McGregor could define his trajectory through the year. The analytical consensus suggests that Topuria’s blend of skill, confidence, and marketability positions him as a strong candidate to hold onto his title or even pursue further divisional conquests.
Khamzat Chimaev presents a different, yet equally compelling, championship narrative. Known for his devastating wrestling and knockout power, Chimaev has showcased his versatility across both the welterweight and middleweight divisions. His undefeated record and rapid ascent have generated significant hype, but also questions about his consistency in securing fights and making weight. The "hands on UFC gold" prediction for Chimaev in 2026 suggests a breakout year where he consolidates his position at the absolute elite. If he commits to the middleweight division, potential clashes against the likes of Dricus du Plessis (assuming he holds the title, or has recently) or contenders such as Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker would be pivotal. His ability to maintain a consistent fight schedule and manage weight cuts effectively will be crucial to fulfilling his championship potential. The analysts noted that Chimaev’s unique blend of charisma and combat prowess makes him a compelling figure, but his path to gold in 2026 will likely be fraught with high-stakes encounters.
The Heavyweight Conundrum: Jones, Aspinall, and the Future of the Big Men
The heavyweight division in 2026 is projected to remain a focal point, largely due to the enigmatic presence of Jon Jones and the undeniable rise of Tom Aspinall. Jones, widely considered the greatest mixed martial artist of all time, claimed the heavyweight title in March 2023 with a dominant submission victory over Ciryl Gane. His subsequent injury withdrawal from a planned defense against Stipe Miocic left the division in flux, paving the way for Tom Aspinall to capture the interim title.
Aspinall, with his explosive striking and rapidly improving ground game, has impressed with a series of quick finishes against top contenders. His record reflects a fighter hitting his prime, and his interim title suggests an inevitable collision course with Jones. The analysts discussed the high probability of a unification bout between Jones and Aspinall in 2026, which would arguably be one of the most significant heavyweight clashes in UFC history. For Jones, this fight could represent his swan song, a final definitive statement on his legacy. For Aspinall, it is an opportunity to solidify his claim as the undisputed king of the heavyweights. The physical condition of Jones, who would be in his late thirties by 2026, and his motivation after an already illustrious career, are key variables.
Middleweight Ambitions: Israel Adesanya’s Quest
Israel Adesanya, the former two-time UFC Middleweight Champion, found himself in a complex position entering 2026. After losing and regaining his title from Alex Pereira, he suffered another setback, indicating a competitive landscape within the division. Adesanya’s elite striking and defensive prowess remain undisputed, but the field of contenders has grown increasingly deep. Analysts discussed his potential path to reclaiming the title, which would likely involve navigating tough matchups against emerging talents and potentially a trilogy bout with a rival. His ability to adapt and evolve his game, particularly against wrestlers and power punchers who have found some success against him, will be critical. The middleweight division, by 2026, could see a new wave of talent vying for the top spot, making Adesanya’s journey back to the summit a formidable challenge.
Veterans and Wildcards: Ngannou, Diaz, and White’s Influence
The future roles of figures like Francis Ngannou and Nate Diaz also featured prominently in the 2026 predictions. Ngannou, who departed the UFC as heavyweight champion to pursue a career in boxing, continues to be a subject of speculation regarding a potential return to MMA, either within the UFC or another major promotion. While a full-time return to the UFC by 2026 might seem distant given his current commitments, the analysts explored scenarios of potential one-off cross-promotional bouts or high-profile appearances in other organizations, maintaining his status as a major draw.
Nate Diaz, similarly, has operated outside the UFC, engaging in boxing matches and exploring other ventures. His enduring popularity and " Stockton" appeal mean that a return to the UFC for a specific, high-money fight – perhaps a trilogy with McGregor or a clash with another veteran – cannot be entirely ruled out for 2026. His marketability often outweighs his current competitive ranking, making him a valuable asset for event promotion.
Dana White, as the long-serving UFC President, will continue to exert significant influence over the promotion’s direction in 2026. His strategic matchmaking, handling of fighter contracts, and expansion into new markets will shape the narrative of the sport. The analysts touched upon the potential for major organizational shifts, new talent acquisitions, and the ongoing evolution of the UFC product under his leadership.
Projected Divisional Champions by End of 2026
The On To the Next One panel offered their bold predictions for who would hold the coveted UFC belts across all divisions by the close of 2026, based on current trajectories, emerging talent, and potential upsets. These projections are, by nature, speculative but grounded in extensive combat sports analysis.
- Heavyweight: Tom Aspinall. The consensus leans towards Aspinall consolidating his claim, potentially unifying the title against Jones or a new contender, and establishing a dominant reign.
- Light Heavyweight: Jamahal Hill (or a new dominant force). The division is known for its volatility, but a strong, active champion is expected to emerge.
- Middleweight: A new, ascending champion (e.g., Dricus du Plessis or a rising contender like Bo Nickal if he develops as projected). The division’s competitiveness suggests a shifting landscape.
- Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov. His undefeated record and relentless style position him as a strong candidate to dethrone the current champion and establish a reign.
- Lightweight: Islam Makhachev (or a top contender like Arman Tsarukyan). The division’s elite depth guarantees challenging defenses, but Makhachev’s grappling dominance makes him a strong bet, though Tsarukyan’s rise is undeniable.
- Featherweight: Ilia Topuria. His youth, skill, and ambition suggest he will remain at the top of the 145-pound division, fending off challengers.
- Bantamweight: Merab Dvalishvili (or a new dominant force). The division is a shark tank, but Dvalishvili’s relentless pace and wrestling make him a formidable champion.
- Flyweight: Alexandre Pantoja (or a new challenger). A division known for technical excellence, Pantoja’s grit and skill could see him hold the belt, but the challengers are always formidable.
- Women’s Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington (or a new contender). The division is in a rebuilding phase, making long-term predictions challenging but offering opportunities for new champions.
- Women’s Flyweight: Alexa Grasso (or Valentina Shevchenko in a potential reclaim). The rivalry here ensures a high level of competition at the top.
- Women’s Strawweight: Zhang Weili. Her dominant performances suggest she could continue to reign as champion, showcasing her power and grappling.
In conclusion, 2026 promises to be a pivotal year for the Ultimate Fighting Championship and mixed martial arts as a whole. The confluence of veteran sagas, the emergence of new championship talent, and the inherent unpredictability of combat sports ensures that the year will be closely watched by fans and analysts alike, with every fight carrying significant implications for legacies and future trajectories.
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