Ali Akbar RosadyFor the first time since Jon Jones’ dominant victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s undisputed heavyweight title will be defended without an active interim championship in play. Tom Aspinall, the former interim titleholder, has been elevated to full champion status and is slated to make his inaugural defense against Ciryl Gane this Saturday, December 14, in the main event of UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi. The heavyweight division’s recent complexities stemmed largely from Jones’ periods of inactivity and his reluctance to face Aspinall. However, Jones vacated the title in June, briefly announcing his retirement before confirming his intention to return later in the year. As the promotion prepares for its twenty-second event in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, five key storylines are set to define the upcoming fight card.
1. The Weight of Expectation on Tom Aspinall
Tom Aspinall (14-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC) enters UFC 321 carrying significant pressure, despite an impressive professional record. With eight stoppage victories in his nine Octagon appearances and only one loss attributed to a knee injury (which he avenged with a knockout three fights later), Aspinall’s career has been marked by rapid finishes. However, several aspects of the 31-year-old Englishman’s fighting prowess remain untested. Aspinall has never competed beyond the second round in his 18 professional bouts, raising questions about his endurance over championship distance (five rounds). His ground game, while efficient in short bursts, has not been extensively showcased against top-tier grapplers. Similarly, his chin’s resilience in prolonged exchanges is largely an unknown, given his propensity for early finishes. While Aspinall is known for his fast hands, devastating power, and agile footwork, analysts have noted his tendency to momentarily expose his chin when backpedaling, a vulnerability he has yet to be penalized for.
Adding to the narrative, Jon Jones previously cast doubts on Aspinall’s marketability and long-term viability, implying he might be a "flash-in-the-pan." Aspinall, currently positioned as a substantial betting favorite (reportedly exceeding 4-to-1) against Gane, faces the implicit challenge of validating his championship reign and dispelling any lingering doubts. A decisive performance against Gane would not only solidify his status but also retrospectively justify Jones’ perceived caution in avoiding a match-up against a dynamic and explosive talent widely considered the future of the division.
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2. Ciryl Gane’s Championship Imperative: A "Now or Never" Moment
At 34 years old, Ciryl Gane (12-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) finds himself at a critical juncture in his career. The 6-foot-5 kickboxer initially arrived in the UFC in 2019, transitioning from Muay Thai, and was hailed as the prototype for a new era of heavyweights. His ascent culminated in claiming the interim heavyweight title in 2021 by stopping Derrick Lewis, pushing his undefeated professional record to 10-0. However, the subsequent four years have seen Gane’s trajectory seemingly plateau, with questions arising about his overall development.
His ground game was notably exposed in two disappointing title challenges. The first was against Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in January 2022, where Ngannou, competing with a compromised knee, nevertheless controlled Gane on the mat en route to a unanimous decision victory. The second, and more decisive, was against Jon Jones at UFC 285 in March 2023, where Gane was submitted via guillotine choke just 2 minutes and 4 seconds into the first round. Between these title bouts, Gane experienced moments of vulnerability, including being visibly hurt multiple times in his 2022 knockout victory over Tai Tuivasa. His most recent outing, a rematch against Alexander Volkov in December, resulted in a highly disputed split decision win, a verdict openly challenged by UFC CEO Dana White. While Gane did display a brief resurgence with a 2023 TKO win over the surging Serghei Spivac, the inconsistencies have raised concerns. This bout against Aspinall represents what many consider Gane’s final opportunity to secure the undisputed heavyweight crown after two previous unsuccessful attempts. His success will likely hinge on his ability to navigate Aspinall’s early aggression and demonstrate significant improvements in his defensive grappling and endurance to take the fight into deeper rounds.
3. The Vacated Strawweight Crown: Jandiroba vs. Dern II
The women’s strawweight division (115 pounds) has undergone a significant shift following the departure of its two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 34-year-old Chinese superstar recently vacated her title to pursue a historic superfight against flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko, scheduled as the co-headliner for UFC 322 in November. This move, occurring at a time when the strawweight division seeks new prominent figures, has created an immediate opportunity for contenders.
Virna Jandiroba (20-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) and Mackenzie Dern (9-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC) are set to capitalize on this opportunity, meeting in the co-main event for the vacant strawweight title. This bout marks a rematch of their 2020 encounter, which Dern won by unanimous decision. Jandiroba, a former Invicta FC champion, has experienced a career resurgence. After losing three of her initial six UFC fights following her 2019 debut, the 35-year-old Brazilian has amassed an impressive five-fight win streak, showcasing a highly technical and disciplined approach inside the cage. Her recent victories include notable names such as Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez, solidifying her status as a top contender.
Mackenzie Dern, 31, initially entered the UFC in 2018 with considerable hype, owing to her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and significant marketing potential. While currently on a two-fight win streak, her recent record of 3-4 in her last seven fights suggests an inconsistent path to the top. Dern’s grappling remains world-class, but her striking technique and game-planning have often been cited as areas requiring substantial improvement. This title fight against a revitalized Jandiroba represents a pivotal moment for Dern to fulfill her long-anticipated potential and prove her development since their first meeting.
4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Path Through the Bantamweight Division
The bantamweight division (135 pounds) features a compelling storyline centered on Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1 MMA, 7-1 UFC). The cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar’s sole professional loss came in January against reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili, a unanimous decision defeat that halted his previously unbeaten record. Nurmagomedov sustained a broken right hand in the first round of that bout and maintains that, despite the injury, he performed sufficiently to secure the victory, referencing scorecards of 48-47 (twice) and 49-46 in favor of Dvalishvili.
Dvalishvili, known as "The Machine," has proven to be a formidable champion with few discernible weaknesses, returning for his fourth title defense of 2025 in a December rematch against former champion Petr Yan. Nurmagomedov’s well-rounded skill set, which combines high-level wrestling with precise striking, positions him as one of the few contenders with the tools to potentially challenge Dvalishvili effectively. While he possesses the ability to threaten takedowns against the Georgian champion, the primary area of improvement identified by Nurmagomedov himself is his gas tank, aiming to match Dvalishvili’s relentless pace.
Nurmagomedov is scheduled to return against Mario Bautista (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC), who is riding an eight-fight win streak. The winner of this matchup is expected to earn the next shot at the bantamweight title, making it a high-stakes encounter. Nurmagomedov has been installed as a significant betting favorite (as high as 6-to-1) against Bautista, underscoring the confidence in his ability to rebound and once again position himself at the forefront of the division.
5. Alexander Volkov’s "Gift": A Heavyweight Contender’s Test
Alexander Volkov (38-11 MMA, 12-5 UFC), the imposing Russian heavyweight, saw his impressive five-fight win streak controversially snapped in December with a split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane. The outcome was widely disputed, with many observers, including UFC CEO Dana White, publicly disagreeing with the judges’ verdict. This loss mirrored previous instances where Volkov, a former Bellator MMA champion, fell short in pivotal fights that could have propelled him into title contention, such as his knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in the closing seconds of a 2018 bout he was dominating.
Following the Gane fight, White was reportedly heard consoling Volkov backstage, promising to "take care of him" in the future. This "gift" has materialized into a key contender’s bout against Brazilian ground specialist Jailton Almeida (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC). Almeida boasts an impressive UFC record, with seven of his eight victories coming by way of finish, including four submissions. He enters the contest as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s documented inconsistencies in takedown defense throughout his career.
For Volkov, 36, a victory over Almeida is crucial. While the heavyweight landscape is always subject to change, with potential returns from Jon Jones or the ascent of light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, a dominant performance would undeniably place Volkov in strong contention for a long-elusive UFC title shot. The bout serves as a critical test of Volkov’s evolution, particularly his ability to neutralize a dangerous grappler and maintain his standing among the division’s elite.
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