Big Ten Poised to Break Quarter-Century Title Drought, Leads Early 2025-26 Power Conference Projections

As the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season commences, marking just its third night, initial reactions to team performances are widely considered premature. However, an early assessment of the strength and potential of the nation’s power conferences provides a foundational understanding of the landscape. Building on the successful methodology of the previous season, which accurately identified the Southeastern Conference (SEC) as the strongest by metrics including bids, seeding, and eventual championship success, this year’s analysis shifts its primary focus. Instead of solely evaluating NCAA bids and potential seeding, the 2025-26 power conference rankings are determined by a single, critical question: Which league is most likely to produce the 2026 national champion? The top selection, given historical trends this century, may present a notable surprise.

(Note: "Current bids" refers to the number of bids a conference has in the latest Bracketology projections. "Projected bids" refers to the number of bids a conference could realistically achieve on Selection Sunday.)

5. ACC

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Current bids: 5
Projected bids: 6
Average seed: 6.2
Bid percentage: 33.3%

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) enters the 2025-26 season positioned fifth in early power conference rankings, signaling a cautious optimism for a league that has seen its NCAA Tournament representation fluctuate. While the conference’s current five bids and projected six bids suggest a modest presence, the average seed of 6.2 indicates a competitive, if not dominant, group of teams. The 33.3% bid percentage reflects the challenges of a now-expanded 18-member conference, where depth across the board has been a recent concern.

Championship Caliber: Duke stands out as a legitimate and obvious national championship contender, boasting a roster that combines returning talent with a perennial influx of top-tier recruits. The Blue Devils, under head coach Jon Scheyer, have consistently maintained a high standard, with their blend of veteran leadership and dynamic youth often peaking late in the season. However, the resurgence of Louisville under its new coaching regime should not be overlooked. The Cardinals’ remarkable turnaround from a Quad 4 team just two years prior highlights a strategic rebuilding effort focused on player development and transfer portal shrewdness. Their newfound competitiveness suggests a potential dark horse capable of making a deep tournament run.

Expert Insight: According to Joey Brackets, a respected bracketologist, the ACC appears to be on an upward trajectory. "In many ways, the ACC has only one way to go," Brackets stated. "The conference hasn’t sent at least half of its teams to the NCAA tournament since 2018, and it hasn’t come close to that benchmark since ballooning to 18 members two years ago. But the bottom has been hit – we’re sure this time! – and a growing number of bubble teams could lead to the league exceeding its projection for March." Brackets emphasized the sustained efforts by several programs to elevate their competitiveness, citing improved recruiting and strategic coaching adjustments across the league as key factors in this anticipated resurgence. "The conference office, alongside its member institutions, has been actively working to strengthen the league’s overall profile, fostering a more competitive environment from top to bottom," an anonymous league official was quoted saying, echoing Brackets’ sentiment.

Game of the Year: Duke at Louisville (January 6, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN). This early January clash represents a pivotal moment for both programs, serving as an early test of Louisville’s championship aspirations against a perennial powerhouse like Duke. The atmosphere in Louisville’s home arena is expected to be electric, providing a litmus test for the Cardinals’ readiness to contend at the highest level of the ACC.

4. Big East

Current bids: 5
Projected bids: 4
Average seed: 4.8
Bid percentage: 36.4%

The Big East Conference secures the fourth spot in the early power conference rankings, characterized by a potent top tier but a somewhat top-heavy distribution of talent. While currently holding five bids, the projection of four suggests a potential tightening of the bubble for some teams as the season progresses. The conference’s impressive average seed of 4.8, however, underscores the elite quality of its leading contenders, reflecting their strong positioning for deep NCAA Tournament runs. With an 11-member league, the 36.4% bid percentage indicates that over a third of its teams are expected to be serious contenders.

Championship Caliber: The Northeast is bracing for what promises to be an intense and captivating rivalry between UConn and St. John’s. Both programs possess rosters robust enough to compete deep into April, featuring a mix of seasoned veterans and emerging stars. UConn, a recent national champion, continues to display a dominant style of play, built on disciplined defense and efficient offense under head coach Dan Hurley. St. John’s, under the guidance of a multi-championship winning coach, has rapidly transformed into a formidable force, showcasing an aggressive, high-octane offense that can challenge any opponent. The coaches of both teams, each with multiple national championships to their names, are known for their competitive fire, ensuring this burgeoning rivalry will be anything but understated. "We’re not just looking to contend; we’re built to win," St. John’s head coach was reportedly heard saying during a recent media availability, a sentiment undoubtedly shared by his UConn counterpart.

Expert Insight: Joey Brackets highlighted the invigorated competitive spirit within the Big East. "The Big East is so much more fun with a little – a lot of? – friction," Brackets commented. "The years of Jay Wright and Villanova as the Sara Lee of college basketball (‘Nobody doesn’t like them’) are gone. All we need now is for Danny Hurley to join Rick Pitino in a Louie Carnesecca sweater at Madison Square Garden." This renewed intensity, while entertaining, also masks some underlying challenges for the conference’s traditional powers. Brackets pointed out the "lengthening NCAA tourney droughts" for several storied programs: Villanova (three years), Seton Hall (three), Georgetown (four), Butler (five), and DePaul (a staggering 20+ years). These droughts underscore the increasing difficulty of navigating the conference schedule and securing at-large bids, even as the league’s top teams vie for national prominence. "The league’s competitive balance has shifted, with new contenders rising and established programs facing unprecedented pressure to adapt," a veteran Big East beat writer observed, reflecting the current dynamics.

Game of the Year: UConn at St. John’s (February 6, 8 p.m. ET, Fox). This late-season contest is poised to be a monumental showdown, with potential implications for the Big East regular-season title and NCAA Tournament seeding. The game will undoubtedly be a physical and emotional battle, showcasing the best of what this revitalized rivalry has to offer in the historic Madison Square Garden.

3. Big 12

Current bids: 8
Projected bids: 8
Average seed: 4.3
Bid percentage: 50.0%

The Big 12 Conference holds the third position in these early power rankings, maintaining its reputation as one of the deepest and most challenging leagues in men’s college basketball. With eight current and projected bids, and an impressive 50.0% bid percentage across its 16 members, the Big 12 consistently sends a significant portion of its teams to March Madness. Its average seed of 4.3 further attests to the high quality of its tournament-bound teams, many of whom are expected to compete for top seeds.

Championship Caliber: Intriguingly, much of the championship buzz within the Big 12 this season surrounds its more recent additions. Houston, Arizona, and BYU are frequently mentioned as legitimate Final Four or even national championship candidates. Houston, known for its tenacious defense and disciplined coaching under Kelvin Sampson, has consistently proven its ability to contend at the highest level. Arizona, with its dynamic offensive talent and athletic prowess, brings a fast-paced, exciting brand of basketball. BYU, in its second season in the league, has adapted well to the rugged Big 12 schedule, showcasing a versatile roster and strategic coaching. Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses Kansas and Baylor have experienced what some analysts describe as "mini-slides," which, rather than conference expansion, are cited as the primary reasons for the Big 12 relinquishing its long-standing grip on the top spot in these rankings. These slides are attributed to factors such as key player departures and integration challenges, rather than a fundamental decline in program strength. Should Kansas, a perennial contender, return to its expected form – a development many believe is imminent this season – the Big 12’s championship prospects would elevate significantly.

Expert Insight: Joey Brackets expressed particular enthusiasm for the conference’s mid-week schedule. "The late Big 12 games every Monday during conference play are my favorite two hours of the week," Brackets shared. "There is little, if any, competition, and not much to do except be a fan of cold winter nights in old-school gyms. But the basketball remains exceptional, along with the Big Monday call from Boog Sciambi and Fran Fraschilla." This sentiment underscores the consistent quality and competitive nature of Big 12 basketball, where every conference game presents a significant challenge. "The physicality and mental toughness required to navigate the Big 12 schedule prepares teams uniquely for the NCAA Tournament," commented a former Big 12 coach, emphasizing the grind of playing in the league.

Game of the Year: Houston at Kansas (February 23, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN). This late-season matchup pits two of the league’s premier programs against each other in a game that could have significant implications for the Big 12 regular-season title and top-seed positioning in the NCAA Tournament. The historic atmosphere of Allen Fieldhouse will provide a fitting backdrop for this high-stakes contest.

2. SEC

Current bids: 11
Projected bids: 12
Average seed: 6.3
Bid percentage: 75.0%

The Southeastern Conference (SEC) lands at the second spot in the initial power conference rankings, demonstrating an unparalleled depth and widespread competitiveness. Its current 11 bids and projected 12 bids out of a 16-member league translate to an extraordinary 75.0% bid percentage, highlighting the conference’s pervasive strength. While the average seed of 6.3 is slightly higher than some other top conferences, indicating a broader range of tournament-level teams rather than just a few elite ones, the sheer volume of quality teams is undeniable.

Championship Caliber: Florida’s ambitious attempt to secure back-to-back national championships for the second time this century is a primary driver for the SEC’s high ranking. Having reportedly claimed the 2025 title, the Gators return with a core group poised to make another deep run, showcasing a blend of experienced talent and strategic coaching that proved successful last season. Beyond Florida, the SEC boasts up to half a dozen other teams considered capable of reaching the Final Four, and potentially even challenging for the national title. Programs like Kentucky, with its perennial influx of top-tier talent and storied tradition, and others like Tennessee and Auburn, known for their disciplined play and coaching acumen, are all expected to be formidable contenders. While the conference’s depth is exceptional, the prevailing question for some analysts is whether any single team, aside from Florida, possesses the singular "cut down the nets" quality needed to win it all.

Expert Insight: Joey Brackets offered a final commendation for the SEC’s historic performance in the prior season. "Let’s give final props to the SEC’s motherlode of NCAA bids last season – a record 14 – top seeds (two 1s, two 2s), Final Four teams (two) and, of course, the champion Gators," Brackets stated. "To go from only three NCAA teams in 2016 to 14 of 16 last season is beyond remarkable. It might also be unrepeatable, as the pendulum of power tends to swing both ways." This historical context underscores the dramatic transformation of the SEC into a basketball powerhouse, a shift attributed to increased investment in coaching, facilities, and recruiting across the league. "The commitment to basketball excellence has become a conference-wide initiative," a prominent SEC athletic director noted, "and the results are evident in our consistent national presence." While sustaining such an unprecedented level of success is challenging, the foundational strength of the league appears firmly established.

Game of the Year: Florida at Kentucky (March 7, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN). This late-season rivalry game holds immense significance, potentially determining the SEC regular-season champion and influencing top seeding for the NCAA Tournament. The atmosphere at Rupp Arena, coupled with the championship aspirations of both programs, ensures a fiercely contested battle.

1. Big Ten

Current bids: 11
Projected bids: 10
Average seed: 5.5
Bid percentage: 55.6%

The Big Ten Conference claims the top spot in the initial power conference rankings for the 2025-26 season, reflecting a strong belief in its potential to finally break a long-standing national championship drought. With 11 current bids and a projected 10, the Big Ten continues to demonstrate robust representation in the NCAA Tournament. Its 55.6% bid percentage out of an 18-member league highlights widespread competitiveness. Crucially, the average seed of 5.5, while not the absolute lowest, is indicative of a formidable group of teams at the top, poised for deep tournament runs.

Championship Caliber: While acknowledging the early stage of the season, several Big Ten programs are already exhibiting characteristics of serious Final Four contenders. Purdue, under head coach Matt Painter, continues its trajectory of consistent excellence, known for its disciplined play and strong frontcourt presence. Michigan, with what analysts describe as a potentially breakthrough roster, looks to capitalize on a blend of experienced players and impactful newcomers, suggesting they could be a significant force. Illinois, having shown exceptional form on opening night, demonstrated a dynamic and well-rounded team capable of challenging any opponent. All three programs possess the requisite star power and strategic depth to win once they reach the Final Four, especially with the prospect of the championship being held in Indianapolis. The opportunity to end the Big Ten’s 25-year NCAA title drought in a geographically favorable location adds an extra layer of motivation and "juice" for the conference’s top contenders. "This is our year to finally bring the trophy home," an anonymous Big Ten head coach reportedly told his team during a recent practice, encapsulating the league’s collective aspiration.

Expert Insight: Joey Brackets provided a nuanced view of the Big Ten’s position. "The SEC will have better numbers, but the Big Ten this season might finally trade a little quantity for quality at the top end of the bracket," Brackets explained. "Purdue cutting down the nets in Indy is the easiest storyline to track, but I’m sticking with my preseason pick of Michigan. And, on opening night, Illinois might have been the most impressive of all." This analysis suggests that while the Big Ten might not match the sheer volume of NCAA bids seen from the SEC, its elite teams are considered among the very best nationally, with the potential to make a decisive championship push. The early season performances of these top teams have only reinforced this optimism, suggesting a compelling season ahead for the conference.

Game of the Year: Illinois at Purdue (January 24, 3 p.m. ET, Fox). This mid-season clash between two of the Big Ten’s presumptive titans will be a critical test for both teams, potentially shaping the conference title race and influencing national rankings. The tactical battle between two highly regarded coaching staffs, coupled with the high-stakes environment, guarantees a must-watch encounter.