UFC 325 Set to Electrify Sydney with Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Featherweight Championship Rematch

Sydney, Australia, is poised to host UFC 325 this Saturday, an event featuring a stacked fight card culminating in a highly anticipated featherweight championship rematch between reigning two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski and challenger Diego Lopes. The main card is scheduled to commence at 9 p.m. ET, with all action streaming live on Paramount+ from the Qudos Bank Arena. The headline bout, Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, sees the Australian champion, "The Great" Alexander Volkanovski, looking to reaffirm his dominance over the surging Brazilian contender, Diego Lopes, following their intense first encounter at UFC 314 last April.

Alexander Volkanovski (27-4), a name synonymous with featherweight supremacy, enters the Octagon as the favorite at -148, aiming to leverage the fervent support of his home crowd. His opponent, Diego Lopes (27-7), ranked No. 2 in the featherweight division, stands as a formidable underdog at +124. Their initial clash, a unanimous decision victory for Volkanovski, was lauded as "Fight of the Night," signaling the potential for another thrilling contest. Beyond the main event, the co-main event features a compelling lightweight battle between No. 6 ranked Dan Hooker (+295) and No. 8 ranked Benoit Saint-Denis (-375), promising high-stakes action further down the card.

For those engaging in sports betting, comprehensive insights and predictions for UFC 325 are available from Mike McClure’s acclaimed computer model. This analytical tool has demonstrated a robust track record, backtesting against over 500 fights from 2023-25 and yielding more than 18 units of profit, translating to an impressive 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. The model’s methodology is rigorous, running 10,000 simulations for each fight. These simulations intricately play out each bout round-by-round, incorporating dynamic win probabilities that adjust based on fighter attributes, precise round-by-round finish calculations considering knockout or submission timing, accumulating damage factors that elevate finish likelihood in later rounds, and fighter-specific finishing tendencies, distinguishing power punchers from grapplers or decision fighters. Its recent performance includes accurately predicting Justin Gaethje to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds for the main event at UFC 324, highlighting its predictive accuracy.

The main event rematch carries significant weight for both fighters. Alexander Volkanovski, at 36 years old, holds the distinction of being the first Australian-born fighter to claim UFC gold and is also the oldest featherweight champion in UFC history. He topped the promotion’s pound-for-pound rankings in both 2022 and 2023, a testament to his consistent excellence. Volkanovski once boasted an remarkable 11-fight win streak within the featherweight division, a testament to his sustained dominance. While his recent record stands at 2-3 over his last five bouts, it is crucial to note the context of these defeats. Two of these losses occurred when Volkanovski ventured outside his natural weight class, stepping up to challenge Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship, a formidable challenge that saw him lose both encounters. His third recent defeat was a more impactful one within his division, as he dropped the featherweight title to Ilia Topuria in February 2024. However, Volkanovski swiftly rebounded, claiming the vacant UFC Featherweight Championship in his very next fight – his initial encounter with Diego Lopes.

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In their first meeting, Volkanovski showcased his trademark pressure and striking volume, securing a unanimous decision victory by landing more than twice as many significant strikes (158) as Lopes landed total strikes (71). This marked Volkanovski’s 11th decision victory in his MMA career, complementing his 13 KOs and three submission triumphs. His ability to control the pace and dictate the flow of a fight, coupled with his exceptional cardio, has been a hallmark of his championship reign. The home crowd advantage in Sydney is expected to provide an additional boost for "The Great" as he aims to solidify his legacy against a determined challenger.

Diego Lopes, at 31 years old, brings youth and a five-inch reach advantage over the 5-foot-6 Volkanovski. A native of Brazil, Lopes is a highly decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, a background that underpins his dangerous grappling game. He signed with the UFC in 2023 and, after an initial setback in his debut, embarked on an impressive five-bout winning streak, earning "Performance of the Night" honors twice during this ascent. This rapid rise earned him his first title shot against Volkanovski at UFC 314, a fight that, despite the loss, earned "Fight of the Night" recognition for its sheer excitement and competitive nature.

Since their first encounter, Lopes has remained active and showcased his evolving striking game. While Volkanovski has been idle, Lopes took on Jean Silva in September 2025, a fellow Brazilian who was ranked and had accumulated five consecutive finish victories. Lopes delivered a spectacular performance, prevailing via TKO with a spinning elbow and follow-up punches. This victory highlighted his growing knockout power, bringing his total to 11 knockout victories, alongside 12 submissions and four decision wins. Notably, neither Lopes nor Volkanovski has ever suffered a loss via submission, though both have experienced defeat by knockout and on the scorecards. Lopes’s dynamic style, blending potent striking with a high-level ground game, makes him a dangerous opponent capable of finishing the fight anywhere. The physical attributes and the momentum from his recent TKO win position Lopes as a serious threat looking to dethrone the long-reigning champion.

The co-main event between Dan Hooker (295) and Benoit Saint-Denis (-375) features two of the lightweight division’s most exciting contenders. Dan "The Hangman" Hooker (23-12), known for his technical striking and resilience, will face the relentless pressure and grappling prowess of Benoit "God of War" Saint-Denis (13-2, 1 NC). Saint-Denis, a former French Special Forces operator, has quickly become a fan favorite for his aggressive, all-action style. This matchup promises a high-octane affair with significant implications for the lightweight rankings.

The UFC 325 main card also includes several other compelling matchups. Rafael Fiziev (-122) is set to face Mauricio Ruffy (+102) in a lightweight clash that pits Fiziev’s dynamic striking against Ruffy’s technical approach. Tai Tuivasa (+260), a beloved Australian heavyweight known for his knockout power and celebratory "shoey," will look to bounce back against Tallison Teixeira (-325). Additionally, Quillan Salkilld (-1000) is heavily favored against Jamie Mullarkey (+676) in another intriguing bout.

McClure’s model has provided specific predictions for these undercard fights as well. One of its top UFC 325 picks is backing Mauricio Ruffy at +102 against Rafael Fiziev, identifying a +6.0% edge. McClure notes, "From a stylistic perspective, this is a clash between Ruffy, who profiles as a technical fighter, and Fiziev, who operates primarily as a power striker. There’s a reasonable chance we see a finish here – our model projects a 57% stoppage rate with knockout or TKO being the most common method at 47%. This is a modest edge on the favorite, but playable at this price. The model sees Ruffy as slightly more likely to win than the market suggests." The model also indicates a strong pick for Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 and is backing a +600 sleeper to win outright on the card, with detailed analysis available through SportsLine.

UFC 325 marks a significant shift in how fans can access events, as the promotion has transitioned its numbered events and UFC Fight Night series to Paramount+. This change eliminates the traditional Pay-Per-View model, allowing subscribers to stream every UFC numbered event and Fight Night live at no additional cost. The platform also offers an extensive library of pre-fight docuseries, full-length replays, and archived fights from previous years, providing a comprehensive viewing experience for MMA enthusiasts. New users looking to engage with UFC 325 betting can also leverage promotional offers, such as the DraftKings promo code, which offers $300 in bonus bets if their initial bet wins, or the FanDuel promo code, providing $200 in bonus bets instantly if a $5 bet wins.

As UFC 325 draws near, all eyes will be on Sydney for what promises to be a memorable night of mixed martial arts. The featherweight championship rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes headlines a card filled with high-stakes contests and compelling narratives, further enriched by the analytical depth provided by advanced betting models. For comprehensive picks, detailed fight analysis, and projections for every bout on the UFC 325 card, sports enthusiasts and bettors are directed to SportsLine, where the proven model, boasting a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights, offers its insights.