Ali Akbar Rosady
The recent NFL trade deadline concluded with a flurry of activity, notably marked by an unusual volume of high-value draft capital changing hands. Historically, trade deadlines have often seen modest exchanges of middle-round picks, but this year witnessed a significant departure from that trend, largely driven by the New York Jets. The Jets were involved in trades that saw three first-round draft selections dealt on deadline day, a rare occurrence. The trade involving cornerback Sauce Gardner was particularly notable, marking only the second in-season trade in the last 30 years to include multiple first-round selections.
Evaluating the immediate winners and losers of such a dynamic trade deadline is complex, as the true impact of draft pick acquisitions often materializes years later. For teams like the Jets, the success or failure of their aggressive strategy will ultimately be determined by the quality of players selected in the coming seasons. However, initial assessments can grade the quality of the transactions based on current player value and future potential. Beyond the headline-grabbing moves in New York, other teams such as the New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, and Baltimore Ravens also saw their rosters altered, alongside a notable move involving wide receiver Jakobi Meyers.
Sauce Gardner: A Strategic Shift for a Cornerback Star
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The trade of All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets to the Indianapolis Colts for two first-round draft selections proved to be one of the deadline’s most stunning developments. Gardner, a foundational piece for the Jets, was not widely mentioned in trade rumors, having signed a four-year, $120.4 million extension with the team just last season.
The financial structure of Gardner’s contract played a crucial role in facilitating the trade. Despite the recent extension, the deal was notably team-friendly for the Jets in the short term, with a relatively small signing bonus of $13.75 million impacting their 2025 cap sheet as dead money. The majority of Gardner’s guaranteed money was structured as option bonuses further down the line, transferring a significant portion of his outstanding financial commitment to the Colts. For Indianapolis, the acquisition provides a premium talent at a manageable average cost of approximately $26 million over the remaining five years of his deal (2026-2030), with flexibility for future restructuring based on performance.
Gardner, at 25 years old, remains one of the top ten cornerbacks in the league, despite a slightly less dominant performance this season compared to his previous two years. Statistical data from NFL Next Gen Stats indicates he is surrendering a completion percentage 11.1% over expectation and a passer rating of 118.8 when targeted in the current season. However, he continues to force tight windows on 61.9% of his targets, reflecting his consistent ability to challenge receivers. While concerns regarding his tackling consistency and occasional penalties for grabby coverage exist, these are typically minor issues for a player of his caliber.
The move sees Gardner transition from the struggling Jets (one win) to the more competitive Colts (two losses), an immediate upgrade in team standing. He is expected to thrive under Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, known for his creative schemes. Anarumo’s system, which often incorporates more zone coverages, is well-suited to Gardner’s length, ball skills, and instincts. Gardner’s presence will allow Anarumo to build defensive game plans around his ability to neutralize opposing star receivers, compensating for existing weaknesses at the CB2 position (particularly with Charvarius Ward’s injury) and in linebacker coverage. This strategic placement offers Gardner a prime opportunity to return to his 2022 and 2023 All-Pro form and potentially contend for a championship.
Dallas Cowboys: A Costly Pursuit of Defensive Reinforcement
The Dallas Cowboys emerged as a significant loser on deadline day, primarily due to the substantial capital surrendered in their acquisition of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the New York Jets. Dallas traded a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick, and defensive tackle Mazi Smith to the Jets.
Williams, 27, is a quality player with one All-Pro selection and three consecutive Pro Bowl appearances over his six professional seasons. His 2023 season, marked by a 16.3% pressure rate, stands as the most disruptive pass-rush season for a defensive tackle in the Next Gen Stats database since 2016. However, Williams’ performance has shown a slight decline in recent years, with his pressure rate dropping from 12.0% in 2024 to 8.0% this season. His average time to pressure has also increased from 2.74 seconds in 2022 to 3.16 seconds currently.
While a new defensive scheme in Dallas might rejuvenate Williams’ play, the trade raises questions about its fit within the Cowboys’ stated goal of improving run defense. The team already features a penetration-style defensive tackle in Osa Odighizuwa, who was extended this offseason and recorded pressure rates of 14.2% in 2023 and 11.1% in 2024. While Williams is larger and a more reliable run defender (10.9% run stop rate, 4.6% stuff rate since 2023, compared to Odighizuwa’s 7.9% and 3.0%), the significant draft capital expended for a player who, at 27 and approaching 28, may not be among the top five at his position, is a point of contention among analysts.
Williams is under contract for his age-28 and age-29 seasons at a total of $47.25 million. The most impactful detail of the trade package is the Jets’ right to the better of the Cowboys’ two first-round picks in 2027, as Dallas also holds Green Bay’s selection from the Micah Parsons trade. This optionality provides the Jets with substantial leverage, potentially allowing them to move up 15-20 spots in the first round depending on team performances. Historical data indicates that even small movements within the first round command multiple middle-round picks in value.
The trade’s perceived value is further diminished when compared to the earlier Micah Parsons trade, where the Cowboys reportedly received two first-round picks for Parsons. The return for Williams, swapping a second-rounder for a first, suggests a similar draft capital expenditure, effectively replacing a younger, higher-impact player with an older, albeit still productive, one. This transaction, while offering entertainment value, appears heavily weighted in the Jets’ favor from a draft capital perspective.
Jakobi Meyers: A New Chapter with Mixed Prospects
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who reportedly requested a trade during the summer, saw his wish granted as he was dealt from the Las Vegas Raiders to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This move provided Meyers with the change of scenery he sought.
However, the immediate prospects in Jacksonville present a mixed bag. The Jaguars’ passing offense has faced challenges, and while Meyers will see increased opportunities due to a rash of injuries to key Jaguars receivers—including Travis Hunter (knee, IR), Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle), Dyami Brown (concussion), and tight end Brenton Strange (knee)—his long-term role is less certain once these players return. Meyers, who turns 29 this week, has one year remaining on his three-year, $33 million contract, a deal that places him in a tier with players like Tutu Atwell or Darius Slayton, despite his significantly higher impact.
Meyers’ consistent performance, particularly his reliable hands (only four drops on 283 targets over the past three seasons), could quickly earn him favor with quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has been plagued by 19 drops on his passes this season, leading all quarterbacks. If Thomas Jr. remains sidelined for several weeks, Meyers could capitalize on the volume to solidify his trust with Lawrence. While analyst opinion suggests destinations like New England or Pittsburgh might have offered a clearer path to sustained production, Jacksonville presents a workable scenario for Meyers to prove his worth and potentially secure a more lucrative extension in the upcoming offseason.
New Orleans Saints: Talent Erosion at Wide Receiver
The New Orleans Saints concluded the deadline as a loser, primarily due to a perceived net loss in wide receiver talent. The Saints traded wide receiver Rashid Shaheed to the Seattle Seahawks for fourth- and fifth-round selections. Shaheed, a 27-year-old with one year remaining on his contract, possesses elite speed and has established himself as a valuable WR2 or WR3. While the return of a fourth- and fifth-rounder is considered decent, some analysts suggest it could have been higher, especially when compared to the Jakobi Meyers trade, where Meyers (two years older) commanded a fourth and a sixth-round pick hours earlier.
The Shaheed trade is further contextualized by the Saints’ earlier acquisition of Devaughn Vele from the Broncos in August, for which they sent a fourth- and future seventh-round pick. While Vele, also 27, offers three cheap years on his contract, aligning with the Saints’ need for cap health, his contribution this season has been minimal, with only five catches through eight games. Shaheed, by contrast, has recorded 64 catches for 848 yards and five touchdowns since the start of last season, projecting to a 17-game pace of 72.5 catches for 961 yards, indicating his status as a bona fide WR2. The overall effect of these moves suggests a regression in the Saints’ wide receiver talent, outweighing any gains in cap space or draft capital.
A minor positive for the Saints was the trade of offensive lineman Trevor Penning to the Los Angeles Chargers for a 2028 conditional seventh-round pick, representing some return for a player who had not lived up to his draft stock. However, the broader concern remains that a diminished wide receiver corps poses a significant risk to the development of young quarterbacks, a challenge New Orleans appears to be embracing.
New York Jets (2027): A Vision for Future Dominance
The New York Jets executed a remarkable series of transactions at the deadline, shipping off two of their premier young talents, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, in exchange for an impressive haul of future assets. This strategy reflects a clear, long-term vision for team reconstruction, aiming to accumulate significant draft capital for a Lions-like rebuild.
In total, the Jets added three first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two young players over a short period. For the 2026 draft, the Jets now possess two first-rounders and two second-rounders, a similar capital pool to the Detroit Lions’ highly successful 2023 draft class, which yielded players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta, and Brian Branch. Such a loaded draft class has the potential to fundamentally alter a franchise’s trajectory. This capital also positions the Jets favorably for a potential quarterback trade package if a generational talent emerges in the 2026 class. Beyond 2026, the Jets hold three first-round picks in 2027: their own, the Colts’ selection, and the better of the Dallas Cowboys’ two first-rounders.
Analyst consensus generally favors the Jets’ side of these individual trades. The return of two first-rounders for Sauce Gardner, whose peak form recovery is not guaranteed, is considered a solid, if not outstanding, move. The Quinnen Williams trade is widely viewed as an enormous win for the Jets. Williams is older than Gardner and plays a position where quality talent is perceived as more fungible than elite cornerbacks. Yet, the Jets still secured a second-round pick and a future first-round selection. General Manager Darren Mougey’s orchestrations are seen by some as a masterstroke that could launch a successful rebuild in New York, provided the accumulated capital is utilized effectively.
New York Jets (2025): Immediate Setbacks in the Present
While the long-term strategic advantages of the Jets’ deadline moves are evident, the immediate reality for the 2025 New York Jets is a significant downgrade in defensive talent. The team parted ways with two excellent young players, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, both All-Pro caliber individuals still in their prime. These are precisely the type of foundational players that a rebuild aims to acquire and develop.
The allure of three first-round selections in 2027 offers a promising future, but history serves as a stark reminder of the inherent risks. The Jets’ 2022 draft class, for example, saw then-GM Joe Douglas select Gardner (No. 4), Garrett Wilson (No. 10), and Jermaine Johnson (No. 26) in the first round, alongside Breece Hall (No. 36) in the second. Despite this highly successful draft in terms of individual talent acquisition, the team failed to achieve sustained success, leading to Douglas’s dismissal two years later as quarterback issues persisted with Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.
Draft picks and strategic plans are inherently gambles. While the Jets’ current moves appear to be smart wagers, the concrete consequence is an immediate and substantial weakening of their defense. The departure of young stars and All-Pro players, while defensible in the context of a long-term rebuild, carries significant risk. The team is objectively worse in the short term, and while this sacrifice is intended to provide a better, though not guaranteed, chance at building a competitive roster in the future, it is a difficult reality for the current squad.
Baltimore Ravens: Enhancing Defensive Versatility
The Baltimore Ravens concluded the deadline as a winner through a series of strategic acquisitions that have already begun to impact their defensive scheme. The Ravens executed three trades: acquiring edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones from the Titans, safety Alohi Gilman and a fifth-round pick from the Chargers in exchange for Odafe Oweh and a seventh-rounder, and sending Jaire Alexander and a seventh-round pick to the Eagles for a sixth.
While the impact of Dre’Mont Jones, acquired on Monday, remains to be seen in a Ravens uniform, the trade for Alohi Gilman has already yielded significant results. Since Gilman entered the starting lineup in Week 6, the Ravens’ defense has ranked second in points allowed per game, seventh in EPA per play, and ninth in success rate. Gilman’s solid play, including a forced fumble and recovery against the Dolphins, has been instrumental.
However, Gilman’s most profound value lies in his role in unleashing the full potential of safety Kyle Hamilton. Prior to Gilman’s arrival, Hamilton was often deployed in a traditional safety role, playing over 70% of his snaps off the line of scrimmage and in the middle of the field, and only 17.4% in the box, largely due to the loss of safety Ar’Darius Washington to an Achilles injury in March. This deployment limited Hamilton’s ability to leverage his unique length, explosiveness, and instincts closer to the line of scrimmage.
Post-Gilman trade, Hamilton has returned to his more impactful role, with only six safety snaps (3.4%) over three weeks. He has instead lined up in the box on 56.9% of his snaps and at slot corner for another 36.2%. This allows Hamilton, a versatile "Swiss Army knife," to function as an outside linebacker-esque edge setter, a suffocating slot corner, or a devastating A-gap blitzer, while Gilman and rookie safety Malaki Starks anchor the deep defensive backfield. The acquisition of Jones further bolsters a defensive line that has been thin all season, providing much-needed depth both on the edge and in the interior. The overall impact of the Gilman trade alone solidifies the Ravens as deadline winners.
New England Patriots: A Missed Opportunity for Contention
Among the teams that largely stood pat at the trade deadline, including Tampa Bay, Denver, and Pittsburgh, the New England Patriots’ inaction was particularly surprising to many analysts. The Patriots, who are viewed as a legitimate AFC contender with a potential MVP-caliber quarterback on a rookie contract, were expected to make a more aggressive move to bolster their roster.
While the Patriots possess decent depth at offensive skill positions and have seen solid play from fringe starters on the offensive line, the consensus was that any opportunity to acquire "plus starters" should have been pursued by the coaching staff. The decision to pass on Jakobi Meyers is understandable given his skillset’s potential redundancy with Stefon Diggs. However, the acquisition of a player like Rashid Shaheed would have introduced a crucial speed element currently absent from the Patriots’ offense.
Despite the possibility of exorbitant trade prices for targets like Chris Olave, the Patriots’ conservative approach may prove costly. With a legitimate AFC playoff push within reach, the team risks falling short in the later stages of the season due to a perceived lack of offensive firepower around quarterback Drake Maye, potentially hindering their ability to compete with the conference’s elite teams.
Breece Hall: Left in Limbo in New York
Running back Breece Hall experienced a challenging deadline day, reportedly expressing a desire to leave New York but ultimately remaining with the Jets. This outcome was surprising to many, given the Jets’ apparent pivot towards a long-term rebuild.
Hall, still only 24, is in the midst of a strong season and is expected to have another full contract’s worth of productive football ahead of him. The relatively low franchise tag ($14.1 million) and transition tag ($11.4 million) figures for running backs provide the Jets with significant leverage, allowing them to retain team control for at least another year should Hall seek to join a more competitive team in the offseason.
Hall’s talent would have been a valuable addition to numerous offenses, particularly those like the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in desperate need of improved play at the running back position. Instead, he will continue to contribute his four yards per carry average within the context of the rebuilding Jets for the remainder of the season.
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