Ali Akbar Rosady
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to return to Australia for UFC 325, a highly anticipated event emanating from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney this Saturday. The main card is scheduled to commence at 9 p.m. ET, with live streaming available exclusively via Paramount+. All eyes will be on the main event, a compelling featherweight championship rematch between the reigning two-time champion, Alexander Volkanovski, and his determined challenger, Diego Lopes. This bout marks the second encounter between the two fighters, following their thrilling first contest at UFC 314 last April, where Volkanovski emerged victorious by decision.
Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski (27-4 MMA, 14-3 UFC), a native Australian, will undoubtedly benefit from the roar of the home crowd as he steps into the octagon. The latest betting odds place Volkanovski as the -148 favorite, requiring a $148 wager to yield a $100 profit. His opponent, the dynamic Diego Lopes (27-7 MMA, 3-2 UFC), currently ranked No. 2 in the featherweight division, enters the contest as a +124 underdog, meaning a $100 bet could return $124. The co-main event promises another electrifying clash in the lightweight division, featuring No. 6 ranked Dan "The Hangman" Hooker (23-13 MMA, 13-9 UFC) against No. 8 ranked Benoit "The God of War" Saint-Denis (13-2, 1 NC MMA, 5-2 UFC), with Hooker listed at +250 and Saint-Denis as the -310 favorite.
Advanced Model Insights for Strategic Betting
As fight night approaches, bettors and analysts alike are scrutinizing every detail, with many turning to advanced analytical models for insights. Mike McClure’s highly regarded computer model, known for its rigorous methodology, has provided its projections for UFC 325. This model distinguishes itself by running 10,000 simulations for each fight, meticulously playing out every round. It incorporates dynamic win probability, which adjusts based on fighter attributes, alongside sophisticated calculations for knockout (KO) or submission timing. Furthermore, it accounts for accumulating damage factors that elevate the likelihood of finishes in later rounds, and integrates fighter-specific finishing tendencies, differentiating between power punchers, grapplers, and those who primarily aim for decision victories.
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The credibility of McClure’s model is underscored by its impressive track record. Backtested against a vast dataset of over 500 fights spanning from 2023 to 2025, it has demonstrated a significant return on investment (ROI) of 6.1%, generating more than 18 units of profit for UFC betting. The model continued its strong performance into the new era of UFC events streaming on Paramount+, accurately predicting Justin Gaethje to win outright at +195 odds and correctly identifying the Over in total rounds for the main event at UFC 324. For those interested in leveraging such insights, leading sportsbooks frequently offer incentives for new users, such as bonus bets upon successful wagers, providing additional value for initial stakes.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2: A Deep Dive into the Rematch
The main event rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes carries significant weight for both fighters. Volkanovski, at 36 years old, holds the distinction of being the first Australian-born fighter to claim UFC gold and is also the oldest featherweight champion in UFC history. He topped the promotion’s pound-for-pound rankings in both 2022 and 2023, following an impressive 11-fight win streak within the featherweight division. His recent record of 2-3 in his last five bouts is contextualized by two of those losses occurring at a heavier weight class, challenging Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship. His third defeat saw him lose the undisputed featherweight title to Ilia Topuria in February 2024.
The subsequent bout against Lopes at UFC 314 was for the vacant UFC Featherweight Championship, a testament to Volkanovski’s immediate opportunity to reclaim gold and Lopes’s meteoric rise. In their first encounter, Volkanovski prevailed via unanimous decision, showcasing his technical striking prowess by landing more than twice as many significant strikes (158) as Lopes landed total strikes (71). This marked Volkanovski’s 11th decision victory in his mixed martial arts career, complementing his 13 KOs and three submission triumphs. Despite the decisive scorecard, the fight was awarded "Fight of the Night" honors, indicating a competitive and entertaining clash.
Diego Lopes, 31, possesses a five-inch reach advantage over the 5-foot-6 Volkanovski, and his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) background forms the bedrock of his aggressive fighting style. Lopes signed with the UFC in 2023 and, after dropping his promotional debut, embarked on an impressive five-bout winning streak, earning "Performance of the Night" bonuses twice during that period. This rapid ascent propelled him into his first title shot against Volkanovski. Despite the loss, Lopes’s performance solidified his standing as a top contender and highlighted his tenacity, contributing to the "Fight of the Night" award.
Since their first meeting, Volkanovski has been inactive, while Lopes took a challenging fight against Jean Silva in September 2025. Silva, a fellow Brazilian, was ranked and had secured five consecutive finish victories. Lopes demonstrated his finishing capabilities once again, prevailing via TKO with a spectacular spinning elbow followed by punches. This victory brought his professional record to 11 knockout wins, alongside 12 submissions and four decision victories. Notably, neither Lopes nor Volkanovski has ever suffered a loss by submission, though both have experienced defeat via knockout and on the scorecards.
The Co-Main Event and Key Undercard Bouts
The co-main event features a compelling lightweight battle between New Zealand’s Dan "The Hangman" Hooker and France’s Benoit "The God of War" Saint-Denis. Hooker, known for his relentless pressure and willingness to engage in thrilling, high-volume exchanges, will look to climb back into title contention. His career has been marked by memorable wars and resilience against top-tier opponents. Saint-Denis, meanwhile, has quickly established himself as a formidable force with an aggressive, forward-moving style, often overwhelming opponents with his striking and grappling. His recent performances have showcased his finishing ability and potential to disrupt the lightweight rankings.
Further down the card, the heavyweight division offers an explosive matchup between fan-favorite Tai Tuivasa (14-7 MMA, 7-7 UFC) and Tallison Teixeira (10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Tuivasa, celebrated for his "shoey" celebrations and devastating knockout power, will be seeking to rebound from recent setbacks. Teixeira, making his UFC debut, will aim to make a statement against a seasoned veteran. Another intriguing lightweight contest pits Rafael Fiziev (12-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) against Mauricio Ruffy (10-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC). Fiziev is renowned for his high-level striking and Muay Thai background, while Ruffy is an emerging talent who secured a debut victory via TKO at UFC 314.
McClure’s model has identified a specific opportunity in the Fiziev-Ruffy bout, backing Mauricio Ruffy at -120, indicating a +6.0% edge. "From a stylistic perspective, this is a clash between Ruffy, who profiles as a technical fighter, and Fiziev, who operates primarily as a power striker," McClure stated. "There’s a reasonable chance we see a finish here — our model projects a 57% stoppage rate with knockout or TKO being the most common method at 47%. This is a modest edge on the favorite, but playable at this price. The model sees Ruffy as slightly more likely to win than the market suggests."
The preliminary card also features a significant discrepancy in odds for the featherweight clash between Quillan Salkilld (-1050) and Jamie Mullarkey (+675), highlighting Salkilld’s perceived dominance or Mullarkey’s challenging circumstances leading into the fight.
How to Watch UFC 325 and Betting Opportunities
UFC 325 is available for streaming live on Paramount+, which has become the exclusive home for all UFC numbered events and Fight Night cards. Subscribers can access live broadcasts, full-length replays, and an extensive archive of past fights and docuseries. This shift eliminates traditional pay-per-view costs for these premier events, consolidating UFC content within the Paramount+ platform.
Beyond the Ruffy-Fiziev prediction, the advanced model has strong picks for the Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 main event and other key bouts on the UFC 325 card. It has also identified an underdog fighter who is projected to win outright in over 50% of its simulations. Detailed picks and analysis, including precise fight outcomes, are available through platforms like SportsLine for those seeking comprehensive betting guidance.
UFC 325 Main Fight Card and Odds Overview
(Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change)
- Alexander Volkanovski (-148) vs. Diego Lopes (+124) – Featherweight Championship
- Dan Hooker (+250) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-310) – Lightweight
- Rafael Fiziev (-102) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-118) – Lightweight
- Tai Tuivasa (+245) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-305) – Heavyweight
- Quillan Salkilld (-1050) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+675) – Featherweight
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