Thunder vs. Timberwolves prediction, odds, time: 2026 NBA picks for Thursday, Jan. 29

The Thunder enter the matchup with an impressive 38-10 record, showcasing a dominant start to the season that positions them among the league’s elite. Their recent form includes a commanding 104-95 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday, demonstrating their resilience and offensive firepower. The Timberwolves, holding a solid 29-19 record, are also in strong contention in the Western Conference standings. They arrive on a two-game winning streak, having most recently dispatched the Dallas Mavericks 118-105 on Wednesday, underscoring their ability to secure crucial victories.

This contest carries significant weight beyond a typical regular-season game, serving as a reacquaintance after their intense five-game Western Conference Finals series last season, which saw Oklahoma City emerge victorious. That series, a clash of emerging dynasties, was characterized by high-octane offense, tenacious defense, and star-player duels, ultimately cementing the Thunder’s place in the NBA Finals. This historical context adds an extra layer of anticipation to Thursday’s game, as both teams look to assert their current dominance and gain a psychological edge.

Injury Report and Impact

The injury report for both teams presents notable absences and uncertainties that could significantly influence the game’s dynamics. The Oklahoma City Thunder will be without key contributors, with guard Jalen Williams sidelined due to a hamstring injury. Williams, an All-Defensive team member, has been a cornerstone of the Thunder’s two-way play, contributing both scoring and crucial perimeter defense. Furthermore, defensive specialist Alex Caruso is also out with an adductor injury. Caruso’s absence removes another elite perimeter defender known for his disruptive capabilities and veteran presence. Rookie guard Cason Wallace, who has quickly established himself as a defensive force, ranking second in the NBA with 2.1 steals per game, is listed as questionable with a hip issue. Should Wallace be unable to play, the Thunder’s perimeter defense and ability to generate turnovers would be notably diminished, forcing other players to step into expanded defensive roles.

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For the Minnesota Timberwolves, veteran point guard Mike Conley is out with a back injury. Conley’s absence deprives Minnesota of a crucial playmaker, a steadying presence in the backcourt, and a reliable three-point shooter. His leadership and ability to control the tempo of the game will be missed. Compounding their defensive concerns, center Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Gobert, a multi-time Defensive Player of the Year, is the anchor of the Timberwolves’ interior defense, a formidable rim protector, and an elite rebounder. His potential absence would drastically alter Minnesota’s defensive scheme, making them more vulnerable in the paint and on the glass, potentially shifting the strategic emphasis for both teams.

Team Form and Statistical Insights

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s stellar 38-10 record is largely attributed to their league-leading offense. They currently boast the No. 1 scoring offense in the NBA, averaging over 120 points per game. Their efficiency metrics are equally impressive, ranking among the top three in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and free throw percentage. This offensive prowess is fueled by a dynamic, youthful roster led by All-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to be a leading MVP candidate. His ability to penetrate, draw fouls, and finish at the rim, combined with his improved perimeter shooting, makes him a constant threat. The Thunder’s offensive system emphasizes ball movement, spacing, and quick decision-making, allowing multiple players to contribute to their high scoring output.

Despite the defensive injuries, the Thunder have maintained a respectable defensive rating throughout the season, relying on their collective athleticism and intelligent schemes. However, the potential absence of three key perimeter defenders in Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, all known for their defensive tenacity and ability to guard multiple positions, could pose a significant challenge against a talented Timberwolves offense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves, with a 29-19 record, have established themselves as a formidable force in the Western Conference. Their offense is ranked No. 5 in the league, showcasing their ability to put points on the board consistently. They also feature top-5 rankings in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage, indicative of their efficient scoring. Much of Minnesota’s offensive production flows through their dynamic duo of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. Edwards’ explosive athleticism and improved shooting make him a difficult cover, capable of driving to the basket or pulling up from long range. Towns provides a versatile scoring threat from all three levels, stretching the floor with his shooting while also possessing the ability to operate in the post.

Defensively, the Timberwolves typically rely heavily on Rudy Gobert’s presence in the paint. His rim protection and defensive rebounding are integral to their strategy. Should Gobert be unavailable, Minnesota would need to adjust its defensive approach, potentially leading to more aggressive perimeter defense and increased minutes for other frontcourt players to compensate for his absence. The loss of Mike Conley also impacts their defensive rotations and communication, as he is a savvy veteran who often directs the defense from the point guard position.

Historical Head-to-Head

The regular-season rivalry between these two Western Conference powerhouses has been closely contested. Over their last eight regular-season matchups, the Thunder and Timberwolves have alternated wins and losses, indicating a balanced and competitive series. The Timberwolves emerged victorious in their most recent regular-season encounter, adding another layer of intrigue to this upcoming game. These historical trends suggest that Thursday’s game will likely be a hard-fought battle, with both teams looking to seize momentum.

Betting Odds and Analytical Predictions

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Oklahoma City Thunder are listed as 6.5-point favorites for Thursday’s contest. The over/under for total points scored is set at 228.5. The money line odds have the Thunder at -229, while the Timberwolves are at +188.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has a proven track record of returning over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons, has weighed in on this matchup. The model enters Week 15 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 37-16 run on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season.

After its extensive simulations of the Timberwolves vs. Thunder game, the SportsLine model reveals its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. A significant finding from the model is its projection for the total score. The model is going Over on the total of 228.5 points. This prediction is heavily influenced by several factors. Historically, three of the last four matchups between these two teams in Minnesota have gone Over the projected total, suggesting a trend towards high-scoring affairs in the Target Center.

Furthermore, both teams boast potent offenses. The Thunder’s league-leading scoring and high efficiency in field goal, 2-point, and free throw percentages make them a constant threat to light up the scoreboard. The Timberwolves, with the No. 5 scoring offense and top-5 rankings in field goal and 3-point percentages, also contribute significantly to the offensive firepower.

The model’s rationale also considers the impact of the Thunder’s defensive injuries. With Alex Caruso (adductor) and Jalen Williams (hamstring) confirmed out, and Cason Wallace (hip) questionable, Oklahoma City will be without significant defensive talent. These absences are projected to cause the Thunder to allow nearly 5 more points than their regular season average, further contributing to a higher overall score. The potential absence of Rudy Gobert for Minnesota would also weaken their interior defense, potentially leading to easier scoring opportunities for OKC. The model indicates that the Over hits in 51.8% of simulations.

The SportsLine model has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits well over 50% of simulations, offering further insights for bettors. All detailed NBA picks and betting predictions from the model are available for review on SportsLine.

This clash between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves is poised to be a pivotal regular-season game, offering a preview of potential playoff battles and a chance for both teams to assert their dominance in a highly competitive Western Conference. The outcome will not only impact their standings but also set a tone for future encounters this season.

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