Ali Akbar Rosady
The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s heavyweight division takes center stage this Saturday as undisputed champion Tom Aspinall defends his title against the formidable No. 1 contender Ciryl Gane at UFC 321. The highly anticipated bout headlines a stacked card emanating from the Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with the main card commencing at 2 p.m. ET, following the preliminary bouts which begin at 10 a.m. ET.
Tom Aspinall, the 32-year-old British powerhouse, enters the octagon as the reigning champion, having cemented his status through a dominant run. His journey to the top began with capturing the interim UFC heavyweight championship by delivering a stunning first-round knockout to Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 in November 2023. Aspinall further solidified his claim by defending the interim title against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304 in July 2024, avenging his previous loss to Blaydes in a fight that ended prematurely due to injury. Following a restructuring within the division, Aspinall was officially promoted to undisputed champion, a testament to his impressive performances and a clear path now laid for his first defense of the unified belt.
Aspinall’s professional record stands at an impressive 15 wins and 3 losses, with a remarkable finishing rate: 12 victories by knockout and three by submission. Since making his professional debut in Manchester, England, in December 2014, and his UFC debut in July 2020, Aspinall has been on a tear, winning 11 of his last 12 contests. His aggressive, fast-paced fighting style has earned him numerous accolades, including seven "Performance of the Night" bonuses, tying him for the fourth-most in UFC history. He holds the distinction of having the shortest average fight time in UFC history at just 2 minutes and 2 seconds, underscoring his explosive power and efficiency. Furthermore, Aspinall ranks second in knockdowns per 15 minutes, averaging 4.09. His breakout year in 2024 saw him earn both "Breakthrough Fighter of the Year" and "Comeback of the Year" awards, highlighting his rapid ascent and resilience.
Challenging Aspinall is the former interim heavyweight champion, Ciryl Gane, aged 35, who hails from Paris, France. Gane’s professional career began in August 2018, quickly garnering attention with three consecutive knockout victories before signing with the UFC. His promotional debut in August 2019 saw him secure a submission win over Raphael Pessoa at UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2. Gane embarked on an impressive undefeated streak, winning his first ten professional fights, a run that included a third-round knockout of Derrick Lewis to claim the interim UFC heavyweight championship and a "Performance of the Night" bonus in August 2021.
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Gane’s overall professional record is 13 wins and 2 losses, with six victories by knockout, three by submission, and four by decision. Known as "Bon Gamin" (The Good Kid), Gane is celebrated for his unique movement and striking prowess for a heavyweight, often displaying the agility and technique typically seen in lighter weight classes. His last outing at UFC 310 in December saw him secure a hard-fought split decision victory over Alexander Volkov, demonstrating his ability to adapt and win tactical contests. Gane was recognized as the UFC’s second-ranked "Newcomer of the Year" in 2019 and the No. 3 "Fighter of the Year" in 2021. His thrilling third-round knockout of Tai Tuivasa at UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa in 2022 was ranked as the seventh-best "Fight of the Year."
The stylistic matchup between Aspinall and Gane presents a fascinating clash of elite heavyweights. Aspinall’s explosive power, speed, and grappling acumen meet Gane’s technical striking, evasive movement, and tactical intelligence. Aspinall’s ability to finish fights quickly, combined with his versatile skill set, makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division. Gane, on the other hand, relies on his distance management, precise striking, and ability to wear down opponents over rounds. The key to victory for Aspinall may lie in closing the distance quickly and utilizing his grappling, while Gane will likely aim to keep the fight at range, picking apart Aspinall with jabs and kicks.
According to the latest UFC 321 odds released by DraftKings Sportsbook, Tom Aspinall is positioned as the significant favorite at -345, meaning a bettor would need to risk $345 to win $100. Ciryl Gane enters the contest as the underdog at +275, where a $100 wager would yield a profit of $275 if he were to emerge victorious. These odds reflect Aspinall’s dominant recent performances and his perceived stylistic advantages.
Beyond the heavyweight championship spectacle, UFC 321 features a compelling co-main event for the women’s strawweight championship, with Mackenzie Dern listed as the -148 favorite against Virna Jandiroba, who is priced at +124. This bout promises a high-stakes grappling affair between two of the division’s top contenders.
For bettors and enthusiasts seeking informed analysis, SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani has provided comprehensive predictions and betting advice for UFC 321. Vithlani, a highly-analytical UFC bettor, has established a consistent winning record since his debut in January 2023, notably achieving a 5-0 record for UFC 283. His main-card sports betting picks have resulted in over $1,500 in profits for SportsLine members. Among his notable calls are an upset prediction for Sean O’Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292, contributing to a 4-1 main card. At UFC 299, Vithlani successfully backed underdog selections including Dustin Poirier (+190) against Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Page (+110) against Kevin Holland (-130).
One of Vithlani’s specific predictions for the preliminary card includes backing Jose Delgado (-155) to defeat Nathaniel Wood (+130) in their featherweight matchup, scheduled for approximately 11:45 a.m. ET. Vithlani identifies Delgado as a "rising featherweight prospect who looks to be legit." He emphasizes Delgado’s training at the MMA Lab gym, describing him as a "rangy and explosive striker who throws nasty knees and elbows." Vithlani points to Delgado’s last fight where he "knocked out a fighter with great durability in under 30 seconds." Standing 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach, Delgado is noted for his significant size advantage in the weight class. While acknowledging Wood as a "tactical kickboxer with strong UFC experience" who will provide a "step-up in competition," Vithlani believes Wood will struggle to outpoint Delgado over three rounds. He concludes that "Delgado is the more dangerous and aggressive fighter, and he’s never been finished in his young 10-1 pro career. I think Delgado’s size and pressure will win him this fight."
The full main fight card for UFC 321, with current odds, is as follows:
- Tom Aspinall (-345) vs. Ciryl Gane (+275)
- Mackenzie Dern (-148) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+124)
- Umar Nurmagomedov (-625) vs. Mario Bautista (+455)
- Jailton Almeida (-198) vs. Alexander Volkov (+164)
- Aleksandar Rakic (-118) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-102)
Expert analysis from SportsLine suggests additional strong picks for the card, including a fighter predicted to leverage "physicality and wrestling edge" to secure a significant victory. As UFC 321 approaches, all eyes will be on Abu Dhabi to witness whether Aspinall can continue his dominant reign or if Gane can reclaim heavyweight supremacy.
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