Ali Akbar Rosady
New York City is poised to host a monumental main event at UFC 322, where reigning welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena is set to defend his title against the formidable lightweight champion and pound-for-pound king, Islam Makhachev. Despite holding divisional gold, Della Maddalena enters Saturday’s pay-per-view as the distinct underdog, a position that belies his championship pedigree but underscores the immense challenge posed by Makhachev’s quest for a second divisional crown. The bout represents a significant narrative juncture for Makhachev, whose pursuit of a dual-championship status could solidify his place in the sport’s all-time greatest conversations. However, the shadow cast by Makhachev’s aspirations risks overshadowing the legitimate threat presented by the incumbent welterweight champion.
Della Maddalena, acknowledging his perceived status, has openly embraced the role of the underdog. "I’ve got everything to prove. But I like it that way," Della Maddalena stated in an interview with MMA Fighting. "It gives me more motivation. A lot of drive to prove I’m the champion and then solidify my spot as the top guy. I’m definitely the underdog. I feel like a little bit I’m being written off. Come fight night, and after the fight, I think there’s going to be a lot of different opinions on it."
This perception stems partly from Della Maddalena’s relatively recent ascension to the welterweight throne and the broader context of his championship reign. While his victory over Belal Muhammad at UFC 315 was decisive, securing him the undisputed welterweight title, some observers have focused more on Muhammad’s grinding style and polarizing public image rather than fully crediting Della Maddalena’s performance. Muhammad, a top-ranked contender known for his relentless pressure and grappling-heavy approach, represented a significant test, yet Della Maddalena navigated the challenge with a blend of striking precision and improved defensive grappling.
In stark contrast, Islam Makhachev arrives in New York with an established legacy of dominance. As the undisputed lightweight champion, he has successfully defended his title a record number of times, surpassing the likes of legendary figures such as Khabib Nurmagomedov, B.J. Penn, Frankie Edgar, and Benson Henderson. His tenure as champion has been marked by a suffocating grappling game, a hallmark of fighters from the Dagestani region, which has consistently neutralized elite strikers and grapplers alike in the lightweight division. This consistent success and his active pound-for-pound king status naturally position him as the favorite in his venture into a new weight class.
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The transition for Makhachev into the welterweight division presents a unique set of challenges, particularly concerning the physical attributes of his opponent. While Makhachev is known for his ability to dictate fights through superior control and strength, Della Maddalena has indicated that the size advantage, typically a factor when a lightweight moves up, may not be as pronounced as some might expect. "Size won’t necessarily save Della Maddalena," as noted by analysts, with the welterweight champion himself admitting he won’t hold a significant physical advantage. The crucial aspect of the fight, therefore, will not hinge on sheer power, but rather on the ability to control the octagon and dictate the exchanges.
Insights from recent title defenses offer a comparative look at the contenders’ strengths. Makhachev’s most recent outing saw him finish the elite striker Dustin Poirier, demonstrating his capacity to overcome high-level striking threats. Della Maddalena, on the other hand, outclassed the relentless wrestler Belal Muhammad, showcasing his evolving defensive grappling and ability to maintain striking efficacy against a determined grappler.
Dustin Poirier, who recently faced Makhachev, offered his perspective on the keys to victory for Della Maddalena. "It’s all going to come down to the takedown defense of JDM," Poirier told MMA Fighting. "If he can get back up to his feet, if he can use the fence, or stay off the fence, use his boxing, I think he definitely could give Islam a lot of troubles in the center of the octagon. He’s a great striker. He’s big and powerful." This analysis highlights Della Maddalena’s striking prowess as his primary weapon, contingent upon his ability to thwart Makhachev’s relentless pursuit of takedowns and maintain the fight in his preferred striking range.
A significant, yet perhaps underappreciated, factor in Della Maddalena’s preparation is the involvement of Craig Jones, the two-time ADCC silver medalist and one of the most innovative minds in modern Jiu-Jitsu. Jones has been actively involved in shaping Della Maddalena’s grappling evolution, a development that could be crucial in neutralizing Makhachev’s formidable pressure. This influence has led several prominent figures in MMA to express confidence in the welterweight champion. American Top Team coach Din Thomas and welterweight contender Sean Brady have both publicly backed Della Maddalena for the upset.
"He’s a breath of fresh air, and I’m with Brady on this one. I’m picking him to beat Islam," Thomas stated to MMA Junkie. "I think that Craig Jones is the answer in this… I think the answer lies within Craig Jones’ approach of blending in a jiu-jitsu style that these guys aren’t familiar with. We’ve seen it when Alexander Volkanovski fought Islam, and we’ve seen it when Jack fought Belal." Thomas’s reference to Alexander Volkanovski’s impressive defensive grappling against Makhachev at UFC 284 underscores the potential impact of unconventional grappling strategies against the Dagestani style.
Della Maddalena’s performance against Muhammad serves as a testament to this evolution. He successfully stuffed six of Muhammad’s nine takedown attempts, but more importantly, he demonstrated an ability to quickly scramble back to his feet when taken down, preventing Muhammad from establishing sustained ground control. Thomas believes this growing comfort and proficiency in transitional grappling is a direct imprint of Jones’s coaching.
"I think Jack’s going to be very difficult to take down and hold down. He might be taken down, but I think he’s going to be very difficult to hold down if he gets taken down," Thomas elaborated. He also highlighted Della Maddalena’s striking accuracy and potential to capitalize on later rounds: "I think on the feet, he’s so precise. I think he loses the first two rounds possibly, but I think he comes back and does damage later in the fight."
Della Maddalena’s offensive capabilities were clearly on display in his fight against Muhammad, where he landed approximately 200 significant strikes over 25 minutes, ultimately bloodying his opponent. His longtime coach, Ben Vickers, believes that unleashing this same level of sustained pressure and brutality will expose weaknesses in Makhachev that few have managed to test.
"I think Jack will knock him out…" Vickers stated on Submission Radio. "He’s not used to taking damage. He’s not used to being in tough fights with someone pushing the pace, and he’s been knocked out before." While Makhachev’s professional record shows only one knockout loss early in his career (against Adriano Martins in 2015), Vickers’s assertion points to a perceived lack of experience with sustained, high-volume striking pressure, particularly from a welterweight. This perspective aligns with Poirier’s ability to trouble Makhachev on the feet, suggesting that a sharper, fresher striker like Della Maddalena could find similar success.
Despite the confidence emanating from Della Maddalena’s camp, oddsmakers list Makhachev as a substantial favorite, approximately a three-to-one margin. This stark contrast is highlighted when comparing it to a hypothetical fight between Makhachev and lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, which is considered a pick’em. The betting lines reflect a widespread expectation among fans and analysts that this fight will culminate in Makhachev’s coronation as a two-division champion.
However, those closest to Makhachev have expressed a surprising level of concern regarding Della Maddalena. Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev’s mentor and close friend, offered an unexpected assessment. "I think Maddalena is the toughest opponent in Islam’s career," Nurmagomedov told Adam Zubayraev in a Russian-translated interview. "That’s my opinion, not Charles [Oliveira], no one else. None of those other fighters. Not even Ilia, if that fight were to happen. Maddalena is twice the size of Ilia. Taller, bigger, stronger legs, bigger frame. His boxing is just as good. And, in grappling, he scrambles really well if you’ve watched him. For me, if I were preparing Islam for either Ilia or Maddalena, I’d be more concerned about Maddalena."
This sentiment is echoed by Makhachev’s longtime coach, Javier Mendez, who admitted to an unprecedented level of preparation for this bout. "Jack is such a tough customer that if we overlook him, which we haven’t. I’ve actually viewed Jack’s fight with Belal five times," Mendez told MMA Junkie. "I’ve never really done that. That’s how much I respect Jack." Mendez, a highly experienced coach from American Kickboxing Academy (AKA), who has guided numerous champions including Khabib Nurmagomedov and Cain Velasquez, rarely deviates from his standard analytical approach, underscoring the perceived threat Della Maddalena poses.
Makhachev himself has acknowledged the gravity of the challenge, tailoring his training camp to specifically address Della Maddalena’s strengths. He has split his time across Russia, Dubai, and New Jersey, seeking out sparring partners who can emulate Della Maddalena’s specific fighting style and physical attributes.
"It’s going to be a hard fight, honestly," Makhachev told MMA Junkie. "I saw his fight against Belal. He’s good, man. When he began fighting in the UFC, he had problems with wrestling, but now he’s improved because I’ve seen him training a lot with wrestlers and grapplers, and that’s why he’s champion right now. He’s good everywhere. But we will see who’s the best fighter in the world very soon."
As UFC 322 approaches, the stage is set for a compelling clash of styles and narratives. While Islam Makhachev seeks to etch his name further into the annals of MMA history with a second divisional title, Jack Della Maddalena aims to solidify his reign and prove that the welterweight division is not merely a stepping stone for aspiring multi-division champions. The outcome hinges on whether Della Maddalena’s refined defensive grappling and potent striking can withstand Makhachev’s relentless pressure, or if the lightweight king’s dominance will transcend weight classes.
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