Ali Akbar RosadyNew York City prepares for a monumental clash at UFC 322, where reigning welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena finds himself in an unusual position as the perceived underdog against lightweight king and pound-for-pound No. 1 Islam Makhachev. Makhachev, widely favored in Saturday’s pay-per-view main event, aims to make history by moving up in weight to capture a second divisional title, a feat that would solidify his claim in the mixed martial arts ‘greatest of all time’ discussion. However, the narrative surrounding Makhachev’s pursuit of a dual-championship legacy often overshadows the considerable challenge posed by the man already wearing welterweight gold.
Della Maddalena, acknowledging his position, expressed a keen awareness of the prevailing sentiment. "I’ve got everything to prove. But I like it that way," Della Maddalena stated in an interview with MMA Fighting. "It gives me more motivation. A lot of drive to prove I’m the champion and then solidify my spot as the top guy. I’m definitely the underdog. I feel like a little bit I’m being written off. Come fight night, and after the fight, I think there’s going to be a lot of different opinions on it."
The perception of Della Maddalena as an underdog stems largely from his relatively shorter reign as welterweight champion and the nature of his title defense against Belal Muhammad. While his victory over Muhammad was convincing, some observers have been quicker to dismiss Muhammad’s methodical style rather than fully recognize Della Maddalena’s performance. In stark contrast, Makhachev arrives with an almost mythical aura, having set a new record for lightweight title defenses, surpassing legends such as Khabib Nurmagomedov, B.J. Penn, Frankie Edgar, and Benson Henderson before vacating his belt to pursue this welterweight endeavor.
Makhachev’s signature smothering grappling, a hallmark of fighters from the Dagestani region, has historically posed a formidable challenge for elite strikers. The physical advantage of moving up a weight class for Della Maddalena may not be as significant as it appears. Della Maddalena himself admitted that despite Makhachev’s 15-pound ascent, he anticipates no substantial size advantage. The core challenge for the welterweight champion will not be managing Makhachev’s power, but rather his unparalleled control and ability to dictate the fight’s dynamics.
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A review of their most recent title defenses provides insight into their respective strengths. Makhachev secured a decisive finish against elite striker Dustin Poirier, while Della Maddalena outclassed tenacious wrestler Muhammad. Poirier, having firsthand experience with Makhachev, offered a critical assessment of the upcoming bout. "It’s all going to come down to the takedown defense of JDM," Poirier told MMA Fighting. "If he can get back up to his feet, if he can use the fence, or stay off the fence, use his boxing, I think he definitely could give Islam a lot of troubles in the center of the octagon. He’s a great striker. He’s big and powerful."
One of the most discussed factors in Della Maddalena’s preparation is the involvement of Craig Jones, a two-time ADCC silver medalist and highly regarded innovator in modern Jiu-Jitsu. Jones’s influence is believed to be redefining Della Maddalena’s grappling approach, potentially offering a unique answer to Makhachev’s relentless pressure. This strategic development has led several notable figures in MMA to pick Della Maddalena for the upset, including American Top Team coach Din Thomas and welterweight contender Sean Brady.
"He’s a breath of fresh air, and I’m with Brady on this one. I’m picking him to beat Islam," Thomas told MMA Junkie. "I think that Craig Jones is the answer in this… I think the answer lies within Craig Jones’ approach of blending in a jiu-jitsu style that these guys aren’t familiar with. We’ve seen it when Alexander Volkanovski fought Islam, and we’ve seen it when Jack fought Belal."
During his fight with Muhammad, Della Maddalena successfully stuffed six of nine takedown attempts. However, Thomas emphasized that the true measure of Della Maddalena’s grappling evolution under Jones was Muhammad’s inability to keep him grounded once a takedown was secured. This growing comfort in transitional grappling, enabling him to consistently return to his feet, could prove pivotal against Makhachev.
"I think Jack’s going to be very difficult to take down and hold down. He might be taken down, but I think he’s going to be very difficult to hold down if he gets taken down," Thomas added. "I think on the feet, he’s so precise. I think he loses the first two rounds possibly, but I think he comes back and does damage later in the fight."
Della Maddalena’s offensive striking capabilities were on full display against Muhammad at UFC 315, where he landed 200 strikes over 25 minutes, bloodying his opponent. His longtime coach, Ben Vickers, has articulated a strategy centered on replicating this brutality and sustained pressure against Makhachev. Vickers posited that such an approach could expose a vulnerability Makhachev has rarely encountered.
"I think Jack will knock him out…" Vickers stated on Submission Radio. "He’s not used to taking damage. He’s not used to being in tough fights with someone pushing the pace, and he’s been knocked out before." This bold prediction draws parallels to Poirier’s ability to trouble Makhachev on the feet, suggesting that Della Maddalena, a sharper and fresher striker, could find similar or even greater success.
Despite the confidence emanating from Della Maddalena’s camp, oddsmakers have positioned Makhachev as nearly a three-to-one favorite. This contrasts with a hypothetical fight against lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, which is currently considered a pick’em. The disparity in odds reflects a broader expectation among fans and bettors that this event will serve as Makhachev’s coronation in a second weight division. However, individuals closely associated with the sport’s elite fighters do not universally share this certainty.
Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev’s mentor and former coach, offered a surprisingly cautious assessment of the matchup. "I think Maddalena is the toughest opponent in Islam’s career," Nurmagomedov told Adam Zubayraev in a Russian-translated interview. "That’s my opinion, not Charles [Oliveira], no one else. None of those other fighters. Not even Ilia, if that fight were to happen. Maddalena is twice the size of Ilia. Taller, bigger, stronger legs, bigger frame. His boxing is just as good. And, in grappling, he scrambles really well if you’ve watched him. For me, if I were preparing Islam for either Ilia or Maddalena, I’d be more concerned about Maddalena."
This sentiment is echoed by Makhachev’s long-time coach, Javier Mendez, who admitted to an unprecedented level of preparation for Della Maddalena. "Jack is such a tough customer that if we overlook him, which we haven’t. I’ve actually viewed Jack’s fight with Belal five times," Mendez told MMA Junkie. "I’ve never really done that. That’s how much I respect Jack."
Makhachev himself has acknowledged the gravity of the challenge, structuring his training camp to specifically counter Della Maddalena’s strengths. His preparation has involved splitting time across Russia, Dubai, and New Jersey to secure optimal sparring partners with similar body types and skill sets.
"It’s going to be a hard fight, honestly," Makhachev told MMA Junkie. "I saw his fight against Belal. He’s good, man. When he began fighting in the UFC, he had problems with wrestling, but now he’s improved because I’ve seen him training a lot with wrestlers and grapplers, and that’s why he’s champion right now. He’s good everywhere. But we will see who’s the best fighter in the world very soon."
UFC 322 presents a pivotal moment for both champions. For Makhachev, it’s a chance to cement a legacy among the sport’s all-time greats. For Della Maddalena, it’s an opportunity to defy expectations, validate his championship status, and prove that the welterweight division is not merely a stepping stone for aspiring multi-divisional kings.
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