Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin fight predictions, odds, start time in Fort Worth

Ortiz, now 27, with a record of 23-0, including 23 knockouts, has moved beyond the label of prospect and is now firmly entrenched as a contender. His upcoming fight against Lubin is a continuation of a series of challenging matchups that began after a period of inactivity due to rhabdomyolysis, a muscle disorder that sidelined him from August 2022 to January 2024. Before his hiatus, Ortiz was rapidly ascending the welterweight ranks, accumulating regional titles but struggling to secure fights against top-tier opponents.

Upon his return to the ring, Ortiz transitioned to the 154-pound division. After two quick knockout victories against Fredrick Lawson and Thomas Dulorme to shake off the rust, Ortiz faced Serhii Bohachuk, who had previously defeated Brian Mendoza. The fight against Bohachuk proved to be the toughest test of Ortiz’s career, as he was knocked down twice but rallied to secure a majority decision victory. This win demonstrated Ortiz’s resilience and ability to overcome adversity in the ring.

Ortiz followed up his win against Bohachuk with a fight against Israil Madrimov, who had given Terence Crawford, one of boxing’s pound-for-pound best, a difficult fight. Ortiz took several rounds to decipher Madrimov’s awkward style, but ultimately won by decision.

Erickson Lubin, with a record of 26-2, including 18 knockouts, represents another significant challenge for Ortiz. Lubin’s only professional defeats have come against Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora, both of whom have held world championships. His fight against Fundora in 2022 was a "Fight of the Year" contender, showcasing Lubin’s toughness and willingness to engage in exciting, high-action bouts.

Lubin’s recent activity has been limited. Since a controversial decision victory over Jesus Ramos in 2023, Lubin has fought only once, defeating Ardreal Holmes Jr. in May. Despite his inactivity, Lubin remains a dangerous opponent with the potential to upset Ortiz’s plans.

A victory over Lubin would significantly enhance Ortiz’s chances of securing a world title shot. Ortiz’s team had previously pursued a fight against WBO champion Xander Zayas, but negotiations fell through, leading to the Lubin fight. Zayas is now scheduled to face WBA titlist Abass Baraou in a unification bout on Jan. 31, potentially opening the door for Ortiz to challenge the winner sometime in mid-2026.

The undercard features several matchups in the middleweight and super middleweight divisions. Darius Fulghum (15-1, 13 KOs) will face David Stevens (13-1, 10 KOs) at 168 pounds. Fulghum is looking to bounce back from his first professional defeat against Bektemir Melikuziev in May. Prior to that loss, Fulghum had won his first 14 bouts, showcasing his potential in the super middleweight division. Robin Sirwan Safar (18-0, 13 KOs) will take on Derick Miller Jr. (12-0, 6 KOs) in a cruiserweight bout. Safar, a top prospect in the 200-pound division, is coming off a win over former light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev.

Lubin is a legitimate opponent for Ortiz, possessing both power and skill. However, Ortiz is considered the superior fighter overall. His recent fights have demonstrated his ability to overcome adversity and adapt to different styles. Against Bohachuk, Ortiz showed his resilience by getting off the canvas and fighting back to win. Against Madrimov, he proved his ability to handle a slick, awkward boxer.

Lubin has been stopped by both Charlo and Fundora, suggesting that Ortiz may have the power to secure a knockout victory. While Ortiz’s last two fights have gone the distance, this fight presents an opportunity for him to return to his knockout ways.

Vergil Ortiz Jr. record:

Nationality: American
Division: Junior middleweight
Height: 5 ft 10 in (178 cm)
Reach: 72 in (183 cm)
Stance: Orthodox
Record: 23-0 (23 KOs)

Erickson Lubin record:

Nationality: American
Division: Junior middleweight
Height: 5 ft 11 in (180 cm)
Reach: 71 in (180 cm)
Stance: Southpaw
Record: 26-2 (18 KOs)

Undercard:

Darius Fulghum vs. David Stevens, super middleweights
Robin Sirwan Safar vs. Derick Miller Jr., cruiserweights

Fight Details:

Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Division: Junior Middleweight

Broadcasting Information

Network: DAZN

Analysis:

The upcoming fight between Vergil Ortiz Jr. and Erickson Lubin is a critical juncture for both fighters. For Ortiz, it is an opportunity to solidify his position as a top contender and move closer to a world title shot. For Lubin, it is a chance to prove that he remains a relevant force in the junior middleweight division and can still compete at the highest level.

Ortiz’s combination of power, skill, and resilience makes him the favorite heading into the fight. However, Lubin’s experience and southpaw style could present challenges for Ortiz. The fight is expected to be competitive, with both fighters having moments of success. Ultimately, Ortiz’s superior power and ability to close the show may be the difference, potentially leading to a late-round stoppage.