Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin fight predictions, odds, start time in Fort Worth

Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin fight predictions, odds, start time in Fort Worth

Ortiz’s path to this pivotal fight has been marked by both promise and adversity. After an extended period of inactivity due to rhabdomyolysis, a muscle disorder that sidelined him from August 2022 to January 2024, Ortiz returned to the ring with a renewed sense of purpose. Prior to his health setback, Ortiz had been rapidly ascending the welterweight ranks, capturing regional titles and showcasing his formidable knockout power. However, he struggled to secure fights against elite opponents, hindering his progression towards a world title opportunity.

Upon his return, Ortiz made a strategic move to the junior middleweight division (154 pounds), where he notched quick victories against Fredrick Lawson and Thomas Dulorme. These fights served as tune-ups, allowing him to shake off any ring rust and regain his rhythm. Ortiz then stepped up in competition, facing opponents who presented unique challenges and were often avoided by fighters carefully navigating their way to a title shot.

His fight against Serhii Bohachuk proved to be a defining moment in his career. Bohachuk, who had previously defeated Brian Mendoza, pushed Ortiz to his limits, exposing vulnerabilities that had not been previously seen. Ortiz was knocked down twice in the fight, forcing him to demonstrate his resilience and determination. Despite the adversity, Ortiz rallied, showcasing his grit and determination to secure a majority decision victory.

In his subsequent fight, Ortiz faced Israil Madrimov, a fighter who had previously given Terence Crawford, one of the sport’s pound-for-pound kings, a tough fight. Madrimov’s awkward style and unorthodox movement posed problems for Ortiz early in the fight. However, Ortiz gradually adapted, deciphering Madrimov’s rhythm and imposing his will. Ortiz ultimately won by a comfortable margin, surpassing Crawford’s performance against Madrimov, further solidifying his status as a top contender.

Erickson Lubin represents another significant test for Ortiz. Lubin, a former title challenger, has faced top-tier opposition throughout his career. His two defeats have come against Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora, both of whom have held world titles. Lubin’s fight against Fundora in 2022 was a highly entertaining slugfest that was considered a Fight of the Year contender.

However, Lubin’s recent activity has been inconsistent. Following a controversial decision victory over Jesus Ramos in 2023, Lubin has only fought once, defeating Ardreal Holmes Jr. in May. His inactivity raises questions about his sharpness and readiness for a fighter like Ortiz, who has been steadily improving and gaining momentum.

A victory over Lubin would significantly strengthen Ortiz’s case for a world title shot. Ortiz’s team had previously pursued a fight against WBO champion Xander Zayas, but negotiations fell through, leading to the Lubin fight. Zayas is now slated to face WBA titlist Abass Baraou in a unification bout on January 31, 2026. This development could potentially pave the way for Ortiz to challenge the winner of the unification bout sometime in mid-2026.

The undercard for the Ortiz-Lubin fight features several intriguing matchups in the middleweight and super middleweight divisions. Darius Fulghum will face David Stevens at 168 pounds. Fulghum is looking to bounce back from his first professional defeat, which came against Bektemir Melikuziev in May. Prior to that loss, Fulghum had won his first 14 fights. In the cruiserweight division, Robin Sirwan Safar will take on Derick Miller Jr. Safar, an undefeated prospect with a record of 18-0 with 13 KOs, is coming off the biggest win of his career, a decision victory over former light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev in May 2024.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Ortiz is a significant favorite in the fight. Lubin possesses both power and skill, but Ortiz has demonstrated his ability to overcome adversity and adapt to different fighting styles. In his recent fights, Ortiz has shown his ability to get up off the canvas and continue to fight for the win. He has also proven that he can handle a slick, awkward boxer, as he did against Madrimov.

Lubin has been stopped by both Charlo and Fundora, and Ortiz is a -1000 favorite for a reason. He is the better boxer overall, and this is the kind of fight where he can get back to stopping opponents.

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