Why the FIA is confident 2026 rules will make F1 ‘unpredictable, exciting’

The 2026 season marks a pivotal juncture for Formula 1, with an entirely new regulatory framework encompassing both chassis and power unit design. Key among these modifications are a move towards lighter, narrower cars, a substantially increased electric component within the hybrid power units, the mandatory adoption of 100% sustainable fuels, and the introduction of active aerodynamics. This last innovation will see both front and rear wings adjust dynamically on straights, effectively rendering the current Drag Reduction System (DRS) obsolete. In its place, trailing cars will gain a strategic advantage through an "electric energy boost" system dubbed manual override mode, designed to aid overtaking.

While acknowledging that radical regulation changes typically lead to an initial disparity in performance across the grid, Tombazis expressed conviction that the overall impact would be a superior on-track product. "Clearly, with new regulations one expects initially a slightly bigger spread of the grid, but we do expect from an aerodynamic point of view, cars to be able to follow each other much closer than now," Tombazis stated, emphasizing the FIA’s learning curve from previous regulatory cycles.

The core of the FIA’s optimism stems from significant advancements in aerodynamic design aimed at mitigating the "dirty air" phenomenon, which has historically hindered cars from closely following one another. The new regulations are specifically engineered to improve wake characteristics, thereby allowing cars to maintain proximity without suffering substantial performance degradation. "The wake characteristics are much improved and we feel we’ve learned a lot from the 2022 cars to implement a lot of these learnings for the aerodynamic regulations this year," Tombazis added, highlighting the iterative nature of regulatory development.

The transition from the established DRS system to the energy-based manual override mode is another critical component expected to inject unpredictability into races. This shift will require drivers to manage their energy deployment strategically, adding a new dimension to racecraft and overtaking maneuvers. "The transition from using DRS to energy as the tool to assist overtaking – that’s all going to change the nature and make it more unpredictable. That, together with the different aerodynamics, I think are going to make racing ultimately more exciting," Tombazis concluded.

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The historical context of aerodynamic wake underscores the FIA’s current efforts. The 2022 regulations, introduced with the explicit aim of improving racing by reducing dirty air, initially yielded promising results. At their inception, the 2022 cars exhibited a significant improvement in downforce retention when following, with approximately 80-85% of downforce retained at 20 meters behind a leading car, a marked improvement over the roughly 50% seen with the previous generation of cars. However, as teams developed their cars within the regulation cycle, this advantage gradually eroded.

"Let me say, first of all, that the 2022 cars started off with a significant improvement in their wake characteristics," Tombazis elaborated. "I don’t remember the exact numbers, but the loss of downforce at 20 metres behind went from about 50% on the previous generation of cars to about 80 or 85% to start with on the 2022 cars. And then that gradually decayed during the regulation cycle to what it is now, which again I’m not entirely sure – but we are probably talking more like 70%."

This gradual degradation explains why drivers and teams have reported increased difficulty in following closely in recent seasons compared to the initial phase of the 2022 regulations, though it remains an improvement over the highly restrictive aerodynamics of the 2021 cars. For 2026, the FIA is targeting an even more ambitious benchmark. "This is why we see that cars are currently struggling a bit more now following each other than in 2022, albeit still better than it was in 2021. We believe that the start of the new cycle will be more like 90% or something like that. So we believe it’s going to be better than it’s ever been," Tombazis affirmed, outlining a vision for unprecedented close-quarters racing.

Beyond aerodynamics, the new power unit regulations introduce a critical element of variability: energy management. The increased electric component means that how a driver deploys and conserves energy throughout a lap, particularly with the new manual override mode, could significantly influence performance. This goes beyond the raw power output of the engine and delves into the nuanced skill of a driver to optimize energy usage. It is believed that even two identical power units could exhibit performance differences of several tenths per lap based solely on the driver’s energy deployment strategy.

Red Bull’s chief engineer, Paul Monaghan, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the potential for strategic divergence and increased unpredictability. "If a driver deploys his energy differently and you’re a little bit inefficient in your use around the lap, an overtake is actually quite practical or feasible," Monaghan observed. He anticipates that this dynamic could lead to a broader spread in individual car usage and performance than currently witnessed. "So, I think the scatter of car usage and performance could be greater than we currently have. And as such, the racing will be different in that we may not be as closed up as we currently are – but we’ll see."

Monaghan also acknowledged the inherent uncertainties that accompany such a comprehensive overhaul. "And then you’ve got the uncertainty of completely new cars, new electronics, and will everybody make it to the end? We’ll find out. It’s unpredictable at the moment," he added, reflecting the engineering challenge and competitive reset that 2026 represents for all teams.

The move to sustainable fuels aligns with Formula 1’s broader environmental commitments, aiming for a net-zero carbon footprint by 2030. The introduction of these advanced e-fuels underscores the sport’s role as a proving ground for future automotive technologies, fostering innovation that can translate to road relevance. This commitment has also been a draw for new manufacturers, with Audi confirmed to enter the sport in 2026, and Honda extending its commitment, demonstrating the appeal of the new power unit regulations.

The 2026 regulations represent a bold step for Formula 1, attempting to balance technological innovation, environmental responsibility, and, critically, the pursuit of more thrilling and unpredictable racing. The FIA’s confidence is rooted in extensive research and lessons learned from past regulatory cycles, particularly the strengths and weaknesses of the 2022 cars. While the initial seasons under these new rules may present a period of adjustment and potential performance disparities, the long-term vision is for a championship where driver skill, strategic energy management, and aerodynamic prowess combine to deliver a spectacle unlike any seen before, promising a truly exciting and unpredictable future for the pinnacle of motorsport.

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Jonas Leo: Jonas Leo is a passionate motorsport journalist and lifelong Formula 1 enthusiast. With a sharp eye for race strategy and driver performance, he brings readers closer to the world of Grand Prix racing through in-depth analysis, breaking news, and exclusive paddock insights. Jonas has covered everything from preseason testing to dramatic title deciders, capturing the emotion and precision that define modern F1. When he’s not tracking lap times or pit stop tactics, he enjoys exploring classic racing archives and writing about the evolution of F1 technology.