Denny Hamlin's Pursuit of NASCAR Cup Glory: A Chronicle of Near Misses

For two decades, Denny Hamlin has been a constant fixture in the NASCAR Cup Series, a testament to his enduring talent and competitive spirit. His career, marked by 60 victories—a mark that places him tied for tenth on the all-time wins list—is adorned with prestigious trophies, including three Daytona 500s, three Southern 500s, and a Coca-Cola 600. He has even conquered the All-Star Race. Yet, the ultimate prize, the NASCAR Cup championship, has eluded him. While Hamlin has consistently been a championship contender, finishing in the top five of the standings ten times, the elusive Bill France Cup remains just out of reach. The 2025 season, which saw Hamlin lead the series in wins and dominate key storylines, was widely anticipated to be his coronation year. However, a flawless performance at Phoenix, where he outdueled his championship rivals, ultimately ended in familiar disappointment, leaving him zero for twenty in his championship aspirations. This report revisits the pivotal moments where Hamlin stood on the precipice of NASCAR’s highest honor.

2006: A Rookie’s Impressive Debut

While not a championship contender in the most direct sense, Hamlin’s rookie season in 2006 warrants mention. Competing under the then-ten-race postseason format, and during Jimmie Johnson’s nascent streak of five consecutive championships, Hamlin concluded the year sixth in the standings. He finished 68 points behind Johnson and a mere 12 points adrift of Matt Kenseth for the runner-up position. In the context of the 2006 points system, this margin was equivalent to the difference between first and fifteenth place in any given race, highlighting the significant challenge faced by a first-year driver against established titans.

2010: A Championship Lost in the Final Race

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Perhaps the most poignant near-miss for Hamlin occurred in 2010. Entering the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 15-point lead over Jimmie Johnson, Hamlin seemed poised to claim his maiden championship. However, an uncharacteristic mistake just 25 laps into the race proved to be his undoing. An overly aggressive attempt to navigate through the field resulted in contact with Greg Biffle, sending Hamlin spinning. The incident, which also caused splitter damage to his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, derailed his championship hopes. He recovered to finish 14th, while Johnson secured a second-place finish, ultimately clinching the title by 39 points. This marked Hamlin’s first and, until recently, only time finishing as the championship runner-up.

2014: A Member of the Inaugural Championship 4

The introduction of the elimination-style playoff format in 2014 saw Denny Hamlin become one of the first drivers to reach the final four. Alongside Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano, Hamlin was in contention at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He led 50 laps during the race, demonstrating strong pace. However, Kevin Harvick ultimately held the advantage. During a crucial late-race caution, Hamlin’s team opted to stay out while his rivals pitted. Though he held the lead for several laps, Harvick eventually overtook him with just seven laps remaining, followed by Newman. Hamlin finished the race third among the Championship 4 contenders, securing third place in the final standings.

2019: Overzealous Strategy Leads to Engine Woes

In 2019, Hamlin found himself in another Championship 4, this time competing against teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., as well as Kevin Harvick. The Joe Gibbs Racing camp employed what was later described as an excessive amount of grill tape on Hamlin’s No. 11 car in an attempt to maintain optimal engine temperatures. With approximately 50 laps remaining, the strategy backfired as the water temperature soared, leading to a coolant leak. Facing a potential engine failure, Hamlin was forced to pit. As the car entered its pit stall, coolant erupted like a geyser. He finished the race in tenth place, concluding the season fourth in the championship standings.

2020: Outmatched in the First Phoenix Finale

The 2020 season marked the first time the NASCAR Cup Series championship finale was held at Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin qualified for the Championship 4 for the third consecutive year but found himself outmatched on race day. He failed to lead any laps and finished fourth among the title contenders. Despite running within the top five for much of the event, Hamlin acknowledged he lacked the outright speed to challenge the Penske and Hendrick Motorsports entries.

2021: A Late Restart Gamble Falls Short

Hamlin’s streak of Championship 4 appearances continued in 2021, but once again, a lack of race-winning speed proved to be his detriment. He finished third in the race and the championship standings, failing to lead a single lap for the second year in a row. On the final restart, Hamlin started on the front row alongside Kyle Larson. However, Larson quickly established a commanding lead before Turn 1, effectively sealing the championship. The prevailing 550 horsepower engine package at the time emphasized the importance of clean air, and Larson’s early advantage proved insurmountable for Hamlin.

2022: A Shocking Elimination at Martinsville

While not reaching the Championship 4 in 2022, Hamlin’s elimination from contention was one of the most dramatic and unexpected in recent memory. Entering the Round of 8 cutoff race at Martinsville Speedway, Hamlin held a narrow points advantage over Ross Chastain. However, on the final lap, as Hamlin navigated Turn 3 in a comfortable position to advance, Chastain executed a daring move, riding the outside wall at high speed. Chastain’s surge propelled him past Hamlin just before the finish line, snatching the final Championship 4 transfer spot. The move left Hamlin in disbelief and eliminated him from title contention. While the subsequent championship race saw Team Penske dominate, suggesting Hamlin might have struggled against Joey Logano regardless, the manner of his elimination was a significant blow.

2025: The Closest of Calls

The 2025 season finale at Phoenix Raceway presented what many believed to be Hamlin’s most definitive opportunity to secure a championship. He led the series in wins and was at the center of all major narratives. Hamlin ran a near-perfect race, dominating his championship rivals. However, with approximately 40 seconds remaining and Hamlin cruising towards victory, a caution flag for William Byron hitting the wall altered the course of the race. Hamlin’s team faced a critical decision: stay out, take two tires, or four. They opted for four fresh tires, a choice that dropped him from the lead to tenth on the restart. This strategy proved to be an underestimation of the competition, particularly Kyle Larson, who took two tires and ultimately snatched the win and the championship. Hamlin, despite leading over 200 laps, was unable to claw his way back to the front, finishing sixth.

With two years remaining on his current contract with Joe Gibbs Racing, the 44-year-old Hamlin still has opportunities to pursue the championship. However, the sting of the 2025 defeat, where he led for a significant portion of the race only to lose it on a late caution, is palpable. Hamlin himself has expressed profound disappointment, stating, "I plan to (race next year). I have a contract to, but there’s, at this point, there’s just absolutely no way that I would even… I don’t even think about the race car right now. Just yeah, I’m gonna need some time on this one.” His quest for a NASCAR Cup championship continues, marked by a series of agonizingly close calls.