College Football Playoff Picture Intensifies: Week 12 Showcases Marquee Matchups Amidst ACC Turmoil

As the college football regular season enters its final three weeks, the campaign has transformed from a marathon into a decisive sprint, with Week 12 poised to deliver critical shifts in the College Football Playoff landscape. The 2025 season, already marked by unprecedented chaos and intrigue, promises a thrilling and potentially volatile conclusion.

Only three teams maintain unblemished records heading into November 13, 2025: the Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, and Texas A&M Aggies. These programs have not merely distinguished themselves as the elite of the sport but are widely considered presumptive favorites for College Football Playoff berths. Behind this trio, a substantial number of contenders find themselves precariously balanced on the edge of playoff contention, with each game carrying monumental stakes.

This week’s schedule is highlighted by four ranked matchups that possess the potential to dramatically reshape the playoff narrative. Ninth-ranked Notre Dame faces a Pittsburgh team, currently 7-2, whose coach, Pat Narduzzi, has openly discussed his squad’s ambitions for an ACC championship, and by extension, a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Iowa Hawkeyes, whose playoff aspirations were dimmed by a recent defeat to Oregon, travel to Los Angeles to challenge No. 21 USC. The Trojans, with a clear path to their first-ever CFP appearance if they win out, understand the gravity of this encounter. In two other pivotal contests, No. 10 Texas, a two-loss team that has surged back into playoff discussions, must navigate a formidable challenge against No. 5 Georgia in Athens. Similarly, the 11th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, also with two losses and an outside shot at the playoff, face a daunting road test against No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The stage is set for a weekend of high-stakes football.

Texas-Georgia: A Clash of Resurgent Powers

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The matchup between Texas and Georgia in Athens represents a pivotal moment for both programs, with each demonstrating distinct strengths and weaknesses in recent conference play.

Texas: The Longhorns, under Coach Steve Sarkisian, appear to have found a potent offensive rhythm, particularly in their play-action game. Quarterback Arch Manning has been central to this resurgence. According to ESPN Analytics, Manning completed an impressive 86% of his play-action throws against Vanderbilt, averaging 12.1 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions. This marks a significant improvement from his 64% completion rate and 7.2 yards per play over the season’s initial eight games. Manning has now surpassed 300 passing yards and thrown three touchdowns in each of his last two outings, a feat not achieved by a Texas quarterback since Sam Ehlinger in 2018. This offensive efficiency is largely attributed to an improved offensive line, drawing praise from Sarkisian regarding Manning’s growth and maturity in operating the offense.

However, the Longhorns’ defense has exhibited vulnerabilities recently. After conceding an average of just 11.3 points per game through their first seven contests, the unit has allowed 30 points in consecutive games. The pass defense, in particular, has struggled, yielding 382 yards to Mississippi State and 365 yards to Vanderbilt, raising concerns as they prepare to face a potent Georgia offense.

Georgia: The Bulldogs, conversely, have seen a significant uplift in their defensive performance after earlier struggles. Initially challenged in third-down situations, Georgia’s defense notably stifled Florida, limiting them to just 2-for-11 on third downs in a crucial 24-20 victory on November 1. Last week, following an opening possession touchdown allowed to Mississippi State, the Bulldogs’ defense tightened, recording three sacks en route to a 41-21 win.

This defensive resurgence echoes Georgia’s past success against Texas. Last season, the Bulldogs defeated Texas twice—30-15 in Austin during the regular season and 22-19 in overtime in the SEC Championship game. Defense was the cornerstone of both victories, with Georgia amassing a combined 13 sacks and holding the Longhorns to fewer than 35 rushing yards in each contest. Texas also converted only 2 of 15 third-down attempts in their initial loss. For Georgia to replicate this success, they will need to maintain defensive disruption, neutralize the Longhorns’ running game, and apply consistent pressure on Arch Manning to disrupt his rhythm.

What’s at Stake in Key Matchups

Iowa-USC: USC’s playoff aspirations remain very much alive despite a significant setback in Week 8, where they allowed Notre Dame to rush for 306 yards. With only one conference loss—a narrow two-point defeat to Illinois earlier in the season—the Trojans have a clear mandate: win out, and they can all but secure the program’s inaugural College Football Playoff appearance. Their first hurdle is Iowa, a team that arrives in Los Angeles having seen its own Big Ten and playoff hopes diminish following a close loss to Oregon. The Hawkeyes present a stark stylistic contrast to USC, known for their methodical, grind-it-out approach aimed at slowing the game to their tempo. If USC’s high-octane offense, which has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season, struggles to establish rhythm, the Trojans will be forced to contend with Iowa’s defensive-minded game. USC demonstrated its ability to win in a Big Ten-esque fashion a few weeks prior against Nebraska, relying on its defense to secure the victory. This Saturday, a similar defensive effort may be required to keep their playoff hopes intact.

Notre Dame-Pitt: Saturday’s encounter between No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 22 Pitt carries disproportionate weight for the Irish. As Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi articulated in his weekly press conference, a decisive loss to Notre Dame would not derail Pitt’s path to the ACC Championship game, and subsequently, a potential playoff berth, given their focus on conference play. Nevertheless, a victory for Pitt would serve to erase the lingering impression of an early September loss to West Virginia and provide a much-needed boost to an ACC struggling for positive narratives.

For Notre Dame, the stakes are unequivocally higher. With their final two regular-season games against struggling Syracuse and Stanford teams, this matchup against Pitt is effectively a win-and-you’re-in scenario for the Irish. The playoff committee has consistently placed Notre Dame securely within the playoff field, making it difficult to envision a 10-2 Irish team falling out of contention. However, Pitt represents a genuine obstacle, particularly due to their formidable pass rush. An upset victory by the Panthers would likely extinguish Notre Dame’s playoff ambitions.

Oklahoma-Alabama: The clash between Oklahoma and Alabama carries significant championship and College Football Playoff implications for both historic programs. For Alabama, the memory of last season’s 24-3 loss to Oklahoma in Norman, which ultimately cost them an at-large berth in the CFP, looms large. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has emphasized the importance of remembering that experience, stating that "our experiences help us be better the next time around." This season, Alabama has already demonstrated this principle by defeating Vanderbilt and Tennessee, both teams they lost to in the previous year. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has even sought advice on the Sooners’ defense from Texas quarterback Arch Manning, whose Longhorns defeated Oklahoma 23-6 last month, with Manning throwing for 166 yards and a touchdown while adding 34 rushing yards. A victory for Alabama, coupled with losses by Georgia and Texas A&M, could clinch their spot in the SEC Championship game.

For Oklahoma, a second consecutive win over Alabama would significantly bolster their CFP résumé. Currently, the Sooners are on the outside looking in for an at-large berth, with the expanded 12-team playoff format potentially seeing two conference champions—including the top Group of 5 team—occupy the final spots. Oklahoma had an open date after their win over Tennessee, allowing for extensive preparation for Alabama. Despite the high stakes, Coach Brent Venables downplayed any carry-over from last year’s result, focusing on the immediate impact. "The season for both of us is impacted by the result at the end of the night," Venables noted. "Who wouldn’t be excited to play Oklahoma-Alabama? Two of the most iconic programs in college football."

The Unpredictable Road to the ACC Title Game

The Atlantic Coast Conference finds itself in a state of considerable disarray as the regular season draws to a close. This season’s narrative is far from ideal, marked by the struggles of traditional powerhouses Clemson and Florida State, both navigating disappointing campaigns. Further complicating matters, all four of the ACC’s highest-ranked teams have recently fallen to unranked opponents within the past two weeks. The very real prospect of the eventual league champion having a loss to a Group of Five opponent like UConn, or a struggling Power Four team such as West Virginia or Baylor, underscores the conference’s current predicament.

This confluence of negative events—including Miami’s self-inflicted setbacks, injuries impacting Louisville and Virginia’s promising starts, and Pat Narduzzi’s unconventional prioritization of conference games over a marquee non-conference matchup—has created a perfect storm of unfavorable results and media scrutiny for the ACC. Even NC State, navigating a 5-4 campaign that included a loss to Virginia Tech, has dealt critical blows to the playoff aspirations of both Virginia and Georgia Tech, with Miami potentially joining that list this weekend. The current landscape offers few clear winners within the conference.

While there is an argument that the ACC suffers from a narrative issue—where inter-conference losses within the SEC are often lauded as a testament to depth, while similar outcomes in the ACC are perceived as widespread mediocrity—the statistical realities present a bleak picture. Following a dismal 2-11 bowl season in 2024, the ACC has accumulated six losses outside of the Power 4 conferences this year. Furthermore, its record in Power 4 non-conference wins is currently worse than that of the American Athletic Conference. These figures contribute to the ACC’s current lack of benefit of the doubt.

Looking ahead, the FPI (Football Power Index) projects a highly uncertain path to the ACC Championship. Georgia Tech currently holds the best odds of winning the league at 35%. However, Duke follows closely at 20%, despite having losses to Illinois, Tulane, and UConn. Should Duke emerge as champion, there is a significant 26% chance, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, that the ACC could be bypassed in favor of a second Group of Five conference champion for a playoff spot. SMU, another potential dark horse, holds the third-best odds at 19.5%, followed by Virginia (13.6%) and Pitt (4%). Intriguingly, Miami, currently the highest-ranked ACC team, paradoxically possesses the lowest title odds among teams still in contention, with a higher statistical probability of making the playoff than reaching the ACC title game. This scenario confirms that the "Coastal Chaos" that once defined one division has now permeated the entire conference, ensuring that the coming weeks will either solidify a legitimate favorite or cement the ACC’s status as the most scrutinized power league in recent memory.

Quotes of the Week

"Absolutely not," Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said when asked if Saturday’s visit from Notre Dame is a "must-win" game for the Panthers. "It’s not an ACC game. Glad you brought that up. I’d gladly get beat 103… or 110-10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two. Again, our focus is on Notre Dame and getting as many wins as we can."

"This team didn’t beat Texas," Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of his Bulldogs, who swept Texas across two meetings in 2024. "And Texas hasn’t played this team of ours. So, two completely different teams in my opinion. I think it has zero effect on it."

Texas A&M’s Mike Elko on South Carolina’s 2025 schedule, which ranks fourth in strength of schedule nationally, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index: "I don’t know what they did to the scheduling gods to get the schedule that they’ve got."

"I was told about it. I haven’t heard it," Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said of Clemson’s Dabo Swinney mimicking his voice over the weekend after Venables visited the program in Week 11. "He’s got me down. He’s got about everybody down. He’s good at the impressions."

Dabo Swinney channeling his inner Brent Venables is pure gold pic.twitter.com/LwRQtAc4Nh

— Jordan Woodson (@Jordan_Woodson) November 9, 2025

"I’ve actually won a championship and we’re going to do it again," Florida State’s Mike Norvell said in a passionate defense of his track record and the Seminoles’ trajectory. "We’re going to do it here. That might piss people off. So be it. They’ll be celebrating when we’re hoisting a trophy, and it will be the belief that I see from our players, the belief that I see from our coaches, the talent that I know that our players have, and the guys that are coming to be a part of this."

"Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week," said North Carolina’s Bill Belichick following questions about potential interest in the New York Giants head coaching job.

"Look I’ve been down this road before," Belichick continued. "I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team."