Liam Lawson’s remarkable form is giving Red Bull a headache for 2027

Lawson, currently driving for the Faenza-based Racing Bulls outfit, a junior team within the Red Bull stable, has accumulated a remarkable 83 points so far in 2026. This tally positions him as a clear standout in the midfield, nearly doubling the points scored by the next closest competitor, Pierre Gasly, who has 42 points. Notably, Lawson’s impressive form has not been contingent on a single strong period or a brief stint in a more competitive car. His points-per-race average remains consistently high, with 4.67 points per race during a temporary assignment with the main Red Bull team earlier in the season, closely mirroring his 4.31 points per race average with Racing Bulls. This sustained performance underscores his adaptability and raw pace, irrespective of the machinery at his disposal.

Despite this compelling statistical evidence of his prowess, Lawson’s seat for the 2027 season, both at Racing Bulls and potentially on the wider Formula 1 grid, remains precariously uncertain. This paradox highlights the unique pressures and often ruthless nature of the Red Bull driver development pathway, renowned for its high standards and swift decisions. The programme, which has historically produced multiple world champions like Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen, along with numerous Grand Prix winners, operates with a clear mandate: to identify, nurture, and promote talent capable of reaching the pinnacle of the sport.

The immediate challenge to Lawson’s tenure at Racing Bulls comes from within the Red Bull junior ranks, specifically from Formula 2 title contender Nikola Tsolov. The 19-year-old Bulgarian has shown flashes of brilliance in the F2 championship, notably claiming six victories across the first 14 races of the 2026 season. This initial surge positioned Tsolov as a frontrunner for a prospective Formula 1 seat. However, his campaign has not been without its inconsistencies; Tsolov’s qualifying pace has reportedly lagged behind his main rivals, and a notable dry spell has seen him fail to reach the top step of the podium in the subsequent 11 contests. Despite this recent dip, Tsolov remains a significant contender, sitting just seven points behind championship leader Rafael Camara, keeping his genuine championship aspirations alive. Camara himself is a point of interest, as he is slated to make his Formula 1 debut with Haas at the upcoming Brazilian Grand Prix, providing a tangible benchmark for F2 graduates.

Lawson’s position has been further complicated by the presence of his current Racing Bulls teammate, Arvid Lindblad. While Lindblad began his F1 rookie campaign with a solid reputation, Lawson has comprehensively outshone him throughout the season. This head-to-head comparison is crucial for Red Bull’s internal evaluations. In qualifying, Lawson holds a dominant 12-6 advantage over Lindblad. When discounting the unrepresentative Melbourne session, his average qualifying advantage stands at 0.072 seconds. Removing sprint qualifying sessions further clarifies this lead to 9-5 with a 0.027-second gap. Perhaps even more telling of his racecraft, Lawson has demonstrated a consistent 0.141-second average pace advantage over Lindblad in race trim, indicating superior management and speed during Grand Prix distances.

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The recent period has further solidified Lawson’s case. Over the last month, the New Zealander has not only proven to be competitive but also a remarkably safe pair of hands. Since his return to Racing Bulls after a three-round stint at the main Red Bull team, filling in for Isack Hadjar, Lawson has not been outqualified on merit, boasting an average pace advantage of 0.257 seconds over his teammate. His points haul in the last four Grands Prix underscores this resurgence, with 24 points collected – a total exceeding that of more experienced drivers like Isack Hadjar and Mercedes’ George Russell in the same period. In stark contrast, Lindblad has managed only a single point in the same timeframe, hindered by a grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with McLaren’s Oscar Piastri in Mexico, incidents that further highlight Lawson’s consistent performance.

Red Bull’s impending decision for 2027 will likely hinge on a singular, overarching question: do Lawson’s current and recent performances suggest he possesses the potential to eventually earn another, more permanent opportunity at the senior Red Bull Racing team? This assessment is paramount for a programme that views its junior teams primarily as a direct feeder for its championship-winning outfit. If the leadership in Milton Keynes believes Lawson has a realistic trajectory back to the main team, his retention at Racing Bulls for 2027 would logically follow, allowing him more time to hone his skills and solidify his case.

In such a scenario, Nikola Tsolov may be required to bide his time. The Red Bull programme has a precedent for placing promising juniors in other high-level single-seater championships, such as Japan’s Super Formula, after their graduation from GP2/F2. This avenue has proven successful for several drivers, including Pierre Gasly and indeed Liam Lawson himself, both of whom subsequently earned Formula 1 drives after stints in Super Formula. This pathway offers a valuable proving ground for mental resilience and adaptability, crucial traits for Formula 1 success.

However, should Red Bull’s internal evaluation conclude that, despite his undeniable current performance, Lawson’s path back to Milton Keynes is not a realistic long-term prospect, the rationale for keeping him at Racing Bulls would diminish. In this alternative scenario, the highly competitive nature of the Red Bull driver pool dictates that a promising junior like Tsolov might then be given his opportunity to step up to Formula 1, regardless of Lawson’s strong form. Such a decision would reflect the programme’s continuous cycle of promoting new talent, even if it means moving on from an established performer in the junior team.

The constant uncertainty surrounding his future is a recurring theme for Lawson. In the post-race media pen following the Mexican Grand Prix, he was again confronted with questions regarding the apparent disconnect between his significant performance advantage over Lindblad and the ongoing doubt about his 2027 seat. "It’s obviously a massive shame, but it’s something that I’m just having to deal with at the moment," Lawson responded with characteristic composure. "I’m obviously trying to do everything I can each time I get in the race car."

As the 2026 season progresses and the Red Bull hierarchy deliberates, the motorsport community awaits to see if Lawson’s unwavering commitment and compelling on-track results will ultimately be enough to secure his place on the Formula 1 grid for 2027, or if the intricate dynamics of Red Bull’s talent pipeline will lead to a different outcome.

Additional reporting by Kevin Hermann

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Jonas Leo: Jonas Leo is a passionate motorsport journalist and lifelong Formula 1 enthusiast. With a sharp eye for race strategy and driver performance, he brings readers closer to the world of Grand Prix racing through in-depth analysis, breaking news, and exclusive paddock insights. Jonas has covered everything from preseason testing to dramatic title deciders, capturing the emotion and precision that define modern F1. When he’s not tracking lap times or pit stop tactics, he enjoys exploring classic racing archives and writing about the evolution of F1 technology.

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