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In the aftermath of Kyle Larson’s pivotal victory at Talladega Superspeedway, Denny Hamlin finds himself in a familiar position: a season of strong performance likely culminating without a NASCAR Cup Series championship. While the sting of another near miss is palpable, Hamlin expressed a sense of tempered pride in his team’s efforts, particularly given the personal and professional challenges that defined his year.
Larson’s triumph at Talladega significantly bolsters his championship prospects, now placing him with a statistically projected 92.7% chance of securing the title. The Hendrick Motorsports driver holds the potential to clinch the championship a full race early at Martinsville Speedway, requiring only a three-point gain. This reality means that even if Hamlin were to win the final two races of the season, his statistical probability of winning the championship would only reach approximately 60%. For Hamlin, this represents another chapter in a career marked by consistent success but devoid of the ultimate prize, solidifying his status as the winningest driver in Cup Series history without a championship.
The current playoff picture paints a stark contrast for Hamlin. He entered the Championship 4 playoff round as the No. 1 seed, boasting a 25-point advantage following the Southern 500. At that juncture, he was widely considered the championship favorite. However, a combination of self-inflicted errors and misfortune has seen him fall 73 points behind Larson.
Hamlin’s 2023 season was not only defined by on-track battles but also by profound personal loss. His offseason was overshadowed by the tragic death of his father in a house fire. Furthermore, his team, 23XI Racing, was embroiled in a protracted antitrust lawsuit against NASCAR, which concluded with a trial in December. These significant off-track events cast a long shadow over the early portion of his racing year.
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Reflecting on the season during his "Actions Detrimental" podcast, Hamlin offered a candid assessment: "I’ll be honest, my offseason was so bad last year that this somewhat exceeded my expectations for the year. For the first, I don’t know, five or six races of the season, I was not even engaged in racing, just not feeling it; just lots of other stuff going on. I think the year has definitely been a success; people would die to have a season like I’ve had this year, and we still have a great shot to win more races before the end of this year in these last two weeks."
Larson, meanwhile, has been a dominant force in the playoff stretch, securing victories in three of the eight races contested in the Chase for the Championship. His lone significant stumble occurred the week prior at Phoenix, where he struggled for pace, failed to score stage points, and ultimately crashed out of the race. Otherwise, the No. 5 Chevrolet has exhibited near-flawless execution, effectively asserting his dominance in the playoff format.
Hamlin acknowledged Larson’s commanding performance, stating, "I think that if Larson closes it out, he deserved it through the last 10 races, and that is what matters in our sport. It used to be the last race as the one that matters. Then it’s the last 10 that take precedence over everything else."
He continued to elaborate on the championship format, suggesting, "To me, I would think that if it was a season-long points format, then the 5 probably takes less risk and wrecks less during the regular season. But if you know there is always going to be a reset, then it allows you to take more chances, which is what the whole system was designed to do in the beginning: ‘Hey, we want these drivers going all out all the time.’"
Hamlin further observed the intensity within the playoff races, noting, "I can tell you, all these Chase races have had an intensity to them that shows you the importance of them and that it’s huge. I just think the format allows you to get hot and win a championship in what seemingly, statistically, maybe aren’t the strongest years that you had, and that’s racing. But I’ll say this, though: you still look at his overall stats, and they’re still pretty damn strong. Certainly, top three to four overall statistics. I think the average finish is maybe high, but that’s those ups and downs. If he finishes 30th, that’s not because he ran 30th. Except for Phoenix. It’s because they had stuff happen.”
Larson’s consistent high-level performance throughout the playoff period underscores the effectiveness of the current championship structure, which rewards strong performances in the final ten races. For Hamlin, the narrative of his season becomes one of battling adversity and maintaining a high standard of competition, even as the ultimate prize slips further from his grasp. His acknowledgement of Larson’s deserved position in the championship hunt speaks to a veteran competitor’s understanding of the sport’s dynamics and the importance of timely performance. As the season draws to a close, Hamlin’s focus will likely shift to capitalizing on any remaining opportunities to secure race wins and end his planned penultimate campaign on a high note, while the championship conversation is increasingly dominated by Larson’s formidable presence.
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