Ali Akbar Rosady
Las Vegas, NV – May 16, 2026 – The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to host a pivotal featherweight encounter this Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, featuring a main event clash between seventh-ranked Arnold "Almighty" Allen and 12th-ranked Melquizael "Melk" Costa. The five-bout main card for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa is scheduled to commence at approximately 8 p.m. ET, with live streaming available exclusively on Paramount+. SportsLine’s seasoned MMA expert, Kyle Marley, has released his comprehensive predictions and betting advice for the card, offering insights for both the main event and several preliminary matchups.
The main event presents a compelling matchup between two fighters with contrasting recent trajectories. Arnold Allen, a British standout, enters the octagon following a unanimous decision loss to Jean Silva at UFC 324 in January. Meanwhile, his opponent, Brazil’s Melquizael Costa, secured a decisive knockout victory over Dan Ige in his last outing at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez in February, carrying significant momentum into this high-stakes contest.
Initial odds from DraftKings Sportsbook position Arnold Allen as the slight favorite at -130 (requiring a $130 wager to win $100), with Melquizael Costa listed as the underdog at +110. Bettors and enthusiasts seeking informed analysis for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa are encouraged to review the predictions and betting advice provided by Kyle Marley through SportsLine.
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Kyle Marley has established a notable track record within the MMA betting community. Over the past three and a half years, individuals who have consistently followed Marley’s $100 picks have reportedly seen returns approaching $10,000. Since May 2018, his cumulative returns have exceeded $21,000. Marley’s consistent success for SportsLine members over the past five years includes a remarkable streak in 2020, where he correctly predicted five consecutive main-event underdog winners following the UFC’s temporary hiatus due to the global pandemic. His history of accurate UFC betting predictions suggests a strong potential for significant returns for those who have heeded his advice.
Marley’s detailed analysis for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa extends beyond the headline bout, encompassing various angles for all matchups on the card. His top betting picks and best bets have been made public following extensive study of each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, and recent performances.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa: Fighter Profiles
Arnold Allen, aged 32, holds a professional mixed martial arts record of 20 wins and 4 losses. His victories are distributed across seven knockouts, four submissions, and nine decisions, showcasing a well-rounded skillset. "Almighty" has been a recipient of the UFC’s "Performance of the Night" bonus on three separate occasions, underscoring his capacity for impactful finishes. From 2015 to 2022, Allen maintained the third-longest win streak in the UFC featherweight division’s history, a testament to his earlier dominance.
Allen initiated his MMA career in April 2012 with a knockout victory over Nathan Greyson at Ultimate Challenge MMA 27 in London. He compiled an impressive 9-1 record before making his UFC debut in 2015. His initial tenure with the promotion saw him secure 10 consecutive victories, solidifying his position as a rising star in the featherweight ranks. However, his recent form indicates a more challenging period, with three losses in his last four fights, including the aforementioned defeat to Jean Silva. Prior to his UFC career, Allen also held the M4TC lightweight championship, adding to his credentials.
Melquizael Costa, 29 years old, boasts a professional record of 26 wins and 7 losses. His finishing capabilities are evident with nine knockout victories and eight submission wins, complemented by nine decision triumphs. Costa’s aggressive and versatile fighting style has earned him accolades, including a "Performance of the Night" bonus and a "Fight of the Night" award. He previously held the Predator FC featherweight championship, showcasing his championship pedigree before joining the UFC.
In 2025, Costa’s bout against Dan Ige was recognized as the fifth-ranked "Fight of the Year," highlighting his involvement in exciting and high-quality contests. Within the UFC featherweight division, he is tied with nine other fighters for the most submission wins, with two successful finishes via submission. Furthermore, Costa is tied with three other fighters for the sixth-longest win streak in the UFC featherweight history, with seven consecutive victories, demonstrating his consistent success and upward trajectory in the division. His recent knockout win over Dan Ige at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez in February further underscores his current form and dangerous offensive capabilities.
Expert Predictions for Undercard Bouts
Beyond the main event, Kyle Marley has also provided specific predictions for other matchups on the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa card. In a women’s strawweight bout, Marley has identified Nicolle Caliari (-265) as the favorite to defeat Shauna Bannon (+215) via unanimous decision.
Elaborating on his pick for the Caliari-Bannon contest, Marley stated, "Bannon should be the better striker at range here, but Caliari should have the wrestling/grappling edge. I do think Caliari will land a couple of takedowns in this matchup, and I’ll take her to keep enough control time to win two rounds and get her hand raised." This analysis highlights the strategic advantages Caliari possesses, particularly in her grappling and control, which Marley believes will be decisive in securing a victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Marley’s full slate of predictions also includes insights for the Allen vs. Costa main event and other significant bouts. He has reportedly identified another fighter whom he believes is "the better overall athlete" on the card, predicting a significant victory for this individual.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa Main Card and Odds
The complete main card for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, with odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change, includes:
- Arnold Allen (-130) vs. Melquizael Costa (+110)
- Doo Ho Choi (+140) vs. Daniel Santos (-160)
- Malcolm Wellmaker (-225) vs. Juan Diaz (+185)
- Modestas Bukauskas (-310) vs. Christian Edwards (+250)
- Timmy Cuamba (+105) vs. Benardo Sopaj (-125)
- Khaos Williams (-122) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+102)
For comprehensive detailed picks and analysis from Kyle Marley, including his predictions for the main event and all other matchups, interested parties are directed to SportsLine. Marley’s track record of generating significant returns for bettors since May 2018 positions his insights as a valuable resource for those looking to engage with UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa.
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