NFL Week 10: Crucial Matchups, Emerging Trends, and Quarterback Dynamics Set Stage for Sunday Slate

As Week 10 of the National Football League season progresses, 13 contests remain following the Denver Broncos’ narrow 10-7 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night. Teams are now making final preparations for a weekend filled with critical divisional clashes, high-stakes non-conference matchups, and compelling storylines. SportsBreakNews.com’s team of analysts offers a comprehensive breakdown of key statistical trends, potential fantasy football breakouts, surprising projections, pivotal individual matchups, and insights into the league’s most intriguing quarterback situations. This in-depth analysis begins with the ripple effects of a significant trade deadline acquisition that has already altered the defensive landscape.

Walder: Three Key Stat Trends Poised to Influence Week 10 Outcomes

Analytics writer Seth Walder has identified three statistical trends that could prove decisive in determining the victors of this weekend’s slate.

The first concerns the Indianapolis Colts’ newly acquired cornerback, Sauce Gardner, and his potential schematic deployment against Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London. Gardner, who arrived in a blockbuster trade from the New York Jets earlier this week, has historically deployed press coverage on 54% of his snaps through nine weeks, ranking second among all corners with at least 150 coverage snaps, just behind Trent McDuffie of the Kansas City Chiefs (55%). The question now is whether this aggressive approach will be maintained within the Colts’ defensive scheme. For context, Indianapolis’s Charvarius Ward, when healthy this season, held a 34% press rate, placing him 11th in the league. If Gardner continues his press-heavy style, it will set up an intriguing direct confrontation with London. The Falcons wide receiver boasts the highest target rate in the league against press coverage (43%, minimum 150 routes). However, despite the volume, London’s efficiency against press coverage has been notably lower, averaging 1.6 yards per route run compared to 2.8 yards per route run against normal or off-coverage. This matchup could dictate the flow of the Falcons’ passing game.

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Secondly, the performance of the Chicago Bears’ running game against the New York Giants’ defense will be under scrutiny. While the Giants have struggled universally against the run, they appear to be a particularly vulnerable opponent for the Bears. New York’s defense is currently allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards per carry on outside zone runs and a 56% success rate on such plays, also the worst in the NFL. These figures are significantly higher than the Giants’ averages against non-outside zone runs (5.3 yards per carry and a 48% success rate). Coincidentally, the Bears operate outside zone runs on 52% of their offensive snaps, the second-highest rate in the league. Chicago’s rookie running back Kyle Monangai recently rushed for 176 yards in a Week 9 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, underscoring the potential for the Bears to exploit the Giants’ defensive weaknesses on the ground.

Finally, the ability of the Los Angeles Chargers’ offensive line to withstand the relentless pass rush of the Pittsburgh Steelers looms as a critical factor. The Chargers currently rank 29th in pass block win rate at 54.6%. This already concerning figure plummets to a league-worst 51.8% on snaps played without starting left tackle Joe Alt, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season after undergoing ankle surgery. The Steelers, conversely, are formidable in their pass-rushing capabilities, ranking third in the league with a 48.1% pass rush win rate. Facing Pittsburgh immediately after losing a cornerstone offensive lineman presents a significant challenge. The Steelers’ edge rushers, including T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Nick Herbig, consistently generate pressure. The Chargers’ makeshift tackle rotation, potentially featuring Jamaree Salyer, Austin Deculus, Trevor Penning, Trey Pipkins III, and Bobby Hart, faces an unenviable task. Furthermore, the interior of the Chargers’ line will also contend with the disruptive presence of veteran defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, signaling a potential mismatch across the board.

Moody: Five Fantasy Sleepers to Target for Week 10

Fantasy football analyst Eric Moody highlights five players, rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues as of Saturday, who could provide significant value as streaming options this week.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, rostered in 43.6% of leagues, has demonstrated fantasy upside, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in two of his three starts this season. While his accuracy (57.6%) remains a work in progress, the presence of elite wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison provides a high ceiling. McCarthy also adds value with his mobility, having recorded 16 rushing attempts and two touchdowns. With several prominent quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Joe Flacco on bye, McCarthy is a viable streaming option against a Baltimore Ravens defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson, rostered in 40.0% of leagues, has been a consistent red-zone threat, tallying five touchdowns in his past six games and surpassing 10 fantasy points in four of those contests. Since Week 6, Johnson ranks second on the Giants in targets, trailing only Wan’Dale Robinson. He is expected to continue receiving valuable looks, particularly near the goal line, from quarterback Dart. Johnson faces a favorable Week 10 matchup against the Chicago Bears, who have surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns this season (20).

Giants running back Devin Singletary, rostered in 30.4% of leagues, is set to see an increased workload following the placement of fellow running back Cam Skattebo on injured reserve due to an open fracture and ruptured ligament. In Week 9, Singletary led the Giants in touches and scrimmage yards, handling the majority of early-down and goal-line responsibilities within a two-man backfield alongside Tyrone Tracy Jr. After Tracy appeared to suffer a late-game injury, Singletary assumed nearly every snap in the fourth quarter. While the Giants’ backfield may still operate as a timeshare, Singletary’s role appears more stable for Week 10. The Chicago Bears’ defense has also allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this season, presenting a favorable opportunity.

Wide receiver Darius Slayton, another Giant, is rostered in 27.3% of leagues. Chicago’s defense has proven susceptible to wide receivers, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. Slayton led the Giants in receiving last week with five receptions for 62 yards, playing a season-high 89% of offensive snaps. With Malik Nabers out for the season due to a torn ACL, Slayton is expected to continue operating as the primary deep threat for quarterback Dart, making him a viable flex option for fantasy managers.

Finally, Washington Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota, rostered in a mere 9.2% of leagues, enters the streaming radar with Jayden Daniels sidelined by a dislocated elbow. Mariota will face a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, including 18.9 points to J.J. McCarthy in Week 9. As Washington is a significant underdog in this contest, Mariota could see 30 or more pass attempts, and his rushing ability further enhances his fantasy value.

Solak: Three Potential Surprises for Week 10

NFL analyst Ben Solak offers three predictions that, while unexpected, possess a plausible path to realization this weekend.

Solak posits that Cleveland Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett could make NFL history by becoming the first player to record consecutive games with four or more sacks. Historically, only three players have achieved two such performances in a single season, out of 131 instances of a player registering four or more sacks in a game. Garrett logged an astonishing five sacks against New England Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye in his last outing. Maye entered that game with a 29% sack-to-pressure rate and was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks. This week, Garrett faces New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields, who has a 27% sack-to-pressure rate but is pressured on a higher 39% of his dropbacks. Should the Jets find themselves trailing, more passing situations would provide Garrett with increased opportunities to pursue this historic milestone.

Secondly, Solak suggests that the Detroit Lions will display an "extra" intensity against the Washington Commanders. The top-seeded Lions suffered one of the most embarrassing upsets of the 2024 season at the hands of the Commanders, who defeated them 45-31 in the divisional round at home. Lions quarterback Jared Goff acknowledged this week that there is "added motivation" for the rematch in Washington. With the Commanders’ defense currently struggling and their offense diminished by injuries, Solak anticipates that even if the Lions establish a significant lead, such as 21 points in the fourth quarter, their starting offense might remain on the field to extend the margin further, driven by a desire for retribution.

Lastly, Solak predicts that Harold Fannin Jr., the Browns’ rookie tight end, will lead all tight ends in receiving yards this week. The "post-bye rookie bump" is a recognized phenomenon for offensive skill players, and Fannin’s role was already expanding prior to Cleveland’s bye week. With offensive coordinator Tommy Rees recently given playcalling duties, he is expected to prioritize getting the ball to Fannin in space and downfield. Despite the absence of Sauce Gardner, the Jets’ remaining cornerbacks are considered formidable. Consequently, the Browns’ passing attack is anticipated to heavily feature their tight ends, and if Cleveland finds itself in a trailing scenario, Fannin could be poised for a career-best receiving performance.

Bowen: Key Matchup to Watch

NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a crucial individual matchup that could shape the outcome of the New England Patriots versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers contest.

The focus is on Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye’s performance against the blitzing schemes of Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles. Maye has excelled against pressure, boasting a league-leading 93.2 QBR when blitzed. However, he will encounter a distinct set of pressure looks from Bowles’ defensive unit. While the Buccaneers do not lead the league in overall blitz rate (their 31.9% rate ranks ninth), they employ defensive back blitzes at a league-high rate of 20.4%. New England’s offensive success will largely hinge on Maye’s ability to accurately identify post-snap secondary movement and anticipate third-level pressure, a complex challenge for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.

Maldonado: Week 10’s Favorite Bet

Sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado offers her preferred wager for Week 10, backing the New England Patriots +2.5 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Maldonado highlights the Patriots’ consistent ability to establish early leads, having been ahead at halftime in eight of their nine games this season, the most in the league. She attributes this to New England’s disciplined approach, dictating tempo, converting effectively on third downs, and playing mistake-free football behind a poised young quarterback. Conversely, Tampa Bay’s offense has experienced a significant downturn, converting only 27% of their third downs over their last three games, marking the worst rate in the league. This struggle comes at the worst possible time, as they face a Patriots defense that allows a league-low third-down conversion rate to opponents. Maldonado asserts that New England’s efficiency and structured play will translate effectively on the road in Tampa Bay, and views the Patriots at +120 on the moneyline as a favorable bet.

NFL Nation: Critical Quarterback Questions Across the League

NFL Nation reporters provide insight into pressing quarterback situations around the league as teams head into Week 10.

Daniel Jones (Colts): Stephen Holder, Colts reporter, indicates that the team remains confident in quarterback Daniel Jones’s resilience after a challenging loss last week, the first instance where his performance and the offense faced significant scrutiny after an unexpected hot start. Head coach Shane Steichen affirmed, "He’s been playing lights-out for us, and he was the same guy even [when] playing lights-out. And it’s going to be the same this week," underscoring the team’s appreciation for Jones’s consistent, even-keeled demeanor regardless of results.

Marcus Mariota (Commanders): John Keim, Commanders reporter, states that Washington’s offensive game plan is not expected to shift dramatically under Marcus Mariota, who steps in for the sidelined Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow). Both quarterbacks share similar styles, comfortable running the ball and operating offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s favored run-pass option (RPO) and quick game schemes. However, defenses have increasingly countered this approach with more man coverage. Subtle differences exist: Mariota typically prefers a faster pace in no-huddle situations, though the Commanders’ defense cannot afford quick three-and-outs. Additionally, Mariota is more inclined to execute designed runs, whereas Daniels more frequently scrambles.

J.J. McCarthy (Vikings): Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter, reveals that a notable aspect of J.J. McCarthy’s return in Week 9 was his conscious effort to establish himself as a threat outside the pocket, both through scrambles and off-schedule passes. McCarthy recorded his second rushing touchdown of the season against the Lions and attempted 7 of 25 passes while outside the pocket, completing one. He commented this week that opponents "know that I have that ability, so I’ve just got to be ready when those opportunities come up," signaling a deliberate expansion of his game.

Justin Fields (Jets): Rich Cimini, Jets reporter, suggests that Justin Fields’ grip on the starting job is not particularly strong following the team’s bye week. Head coach Aaron Glenn has refrained from publicly confirming Fields as the undisputed starter. While Fields, coming off his best game, is expected to start Sunday against the Browns, his long-term status remains uncertain. Two weeks prior, Glenn was prepared to start Tyrod Taylor, who was ultimately scratched due to late-week knee discomfort. Cimini notes that continuing with Fields for a full-season evaluation appears to be a logical organizational decision before major quarterback decisions are made in the offseason.