Mercedes Temper Vegas Grand Prix Expectations Despite Previous Dominance

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula 1 Team is adopting a cautious stance regarding its prospects for the upcoming Las Vegas Grand Prix, deliberately downplaying predictions of a repeat of their commanding 1-2 finish from the inaugural event. While last year saw George Russell and Lewis Hamilton secure a dominant one-two, leaving championship rivals trailing, team principal Toto Wolff and deputy technical director Simone Resta have outlined several factors that temper their optimism for the highly anticipated return to the Nevada desert.

The memory of Mercedes’ impressive performance in the 2023 Las Vegas Grand Prix, where Russell and Hamilton controlled the race from start to finish, remains fresh. The Silver Arrows capitalized on the unique conditions of the street circuit, securing a memorable double podium that stood out in an otherwise challenging season for the team. Russell took victory, marking his second career F1 win, while Hamilton fought through the field to secure second, a testament to the W14’s ability to find a sweet spot under the specific ambient and track conditions. This result was particularly significant as it marked Mercedes’ strongest showing of the year against the dominant Red Bull Racing team, with Max Verstappen finishing well down the order after an early incident.

However, as the sport prepares for its second visit to the Las Vegas Strip, the Mercedes camp is keen to manage expectations. "I’ve said let’s just keep exactly the same car that we had last year, let’s not change it, but unfortunately that’s not the case anymore," Wolff stated, highlighting the continuous evolution of Formula 1 machinery. "So we’ve got to be very analytical of what is the car that we need for Las Vegas, what is the ambient [temperature], and can we replicate the kind of performances. But I doubt it. We just need to go there open-minded. It’s a new weekend, and hopefully we’re able to perform well."

The shift in Mercedes’ outlook stems from a confluence of technical developments and environmental variables. Last year, the W14’s characteristics were notably flattered by the smooth track surface and the exceptionally chilly ambient temperatures of the desert night. The race, held in mid-November, saw temperatures plummet to around 14 degrees Celsius at lights-out, conditions that proved surprisingly beneficial for the Mercedes car.

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Throughout the ground-effect era, which began in 2022, Mercedes has openly acknowledged its struggles in finding the optimal balance and compliance in its suspension system, particularly at the rear. This issue has often led to the cars performing best on tracks with fewer bumps and where lower ambient temperatures help mitigate their persistent tendency to overheat the tyres. The smooth asphalt of the Las Vegas Strip, combined with the cold air, created an environment where the W14’s weaknesses were less exposed, and its strengths in tyre warm-up in cool conditions could be fully exploited.

The unique layout of the Las Vegas street circuit itself contributes to the challenge of tyre management. Characterized by incredibly long straights, the track provides ample opportunity for the tyres to cool down significantly, making it difficult to maintain optimal operating temperature. Furthermore, the circuit lacks the sustained, high-speed corners typically found on traditional racetracks where thermal stresses on the tyres truly build up. While Turn 17 is promoted as one of F1’s fastest, it is effectively a high-speed kink on a straight, rather than a corner that demands prolonged lateral load and heat generation from the tyres.

A significant change for this year’s event that could impact Mercedes’ performance is the revised race start time. The Grand Prix will commence two hours earlier than last year, at 8 PM local time instead of 10 PM. While still a night race, this earlier start could result in slightly higher ambient temperatures, even if only by a few degrees. For a car like the Mercedes, which has historically struggled with tyre overheating, even a marginal increase in track or air temperature could shift the performance window out of their favour.

Deputy Technical Director Simone Resta echoed Wolff’s sentiments, emphasizing the difficulty in making direct comparisons to last year’s outlier performance. "I think it’s very difficult to have a proper expectation of a performance because if you look at last year and this year, we won in all different races between last year and this year," Resta explained in a team debrief. "It’s quite difficult to draw a direct guess between how we were last year and how it’s going to be this year." He added that the team and drivers remain highly motivated to maximize their performance, irrespective of past results.

The current W16 car has undergone fundamental alterations compared to its predecessor, the W15. Mercedes’ engineering team aimed to address two key areas: eliminating a persistent weakness in slow corners, where previous iterations tended to understeer, and generating more consistent downforce at slightly higher ride heights. These objectives were critical in broadening the car’s operational window and making it less sensitive to setup and track conditions.

However, the implementation of these changes has yielded mixed success. A new rear-suspension geometry, initially trialled during the Imola Grand Prix weekend, had to be removed from the car later in the summer. Such a significant component change, followed by its reversal, indicates challenges in integrating new concepts and achieving the desired performance gains. Consequently, the W16’s overall performance envelope—the range of conditions and track types where it performs optimally—is markedly different from the W15, making predictions more uncertain.

Wolff cited examples of the W16’s unpredictable nature across different circuits this season. "I would have said Silverstone was a great opportunity," he noted, referring to a track with high-speed corners where Mercedes historically performed well, yet they did not. "In Montreal we did win, but Silverstone not at all, and Spa, which was not at all." The victory in Montreal demonstrated the car’s potential under certain circumstances, but its inconsistency has been a recurring theme.

The performance at Spa-Francorchamps earlier in the season served as a stark reminder of this unpredictability. On paper, the Belgian circuit with its smooth surface, numerous fast corners, and often cold conditions, should have played to Mercedes’ strengths. Yet, the team endured a challenging weekend. George Russell, one of Mercedes’ star drivers, scored no points in the sprint race and finished a distant fifth in the Grand Prix, far from the podium contention typically expected. This "rout," as Wolff described it, underscored the W16’s sensitivity and its difficulty in consistently extracting performance, even on tracks that theoretically align with its characteristics.

"So I don’t want to set our expectations based on last year’s result," Wolff concluded, drawing parallels to past experiences. "Because we’ve been beaten before… in Brazil, for example, we dominated one year, the next one was nowhere…" This historical perspective from the team principal underlines the transient nature of Formula 1 performance and the imperative to approach each race weekend with a fresh, data-driven perspective, rather than relying on past glories.

As Mercedes prepares to return to the illuminated streets of Las Vegas, the focus will be on meticulous data analysis and optimal setup rather than assuming a repeat of last year’s triumphant outing. The team, currently vying for a strong position in the Constructors’ Championship, understands that the evolving technical landscape and variable environmental factors demand a pragmatic and open-minded approach to maximize their potential in one of Formula 1’s most glamorous, yet challenging, events.

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Jonas Leo: Jonas Leo is a passionate motorsport journalist and lifelong Formula 1 enthusiast. With a sharp eye for race strategy and driver performance, he brings readers closer to the world of Grand Prix racing through in-depth analysis, breaking news, and exclusive paddock insights. Jonas has covered everything from preseason testing to dramatic title deciders, capturing the emotion and precision that define modern F1. When he’s not tracking lap times or pit stop tactics, he enjoys exploring classic racing archives and writing about the evolution of F1 technology.