Early Returns on Europe's Record Summer Transfers: A Mid-Season Performance Review of Key Acquisitions

European football clubs embarked on an unprecedented spending spree over the summer, collectively investing an astonishing $9.76 billion to secure approximately 12,000 new players. These figures, confirmed by FIFA, represent record highs, with nearly 1,000 more players changing teams compared to the previous year and the near-$10 billion outlay marking a more than 50% increase over the prior summer’s spending.

The lion’s share of this financial activity was concentrated within UEFA member clubs, who accounted for $8.5 billion of the total expenditure—a substantial $3 billion rise from the preceding year. Approximately 7,350 players made moves within UEFA territories. Notably, around 20% of these transfers necessitated transfer fees, with the average price per deal reaching $4.27 million, a $1.2 million increase per transaction compared to 2024.

Predictably, the bulk of this investment originated from the continent’s elite "Big Five" leagues and their associated clubs. England’s Premier League led the charge, with clubs spending an colossal $3.19 billion on transfers. Spain’s LaLiga, Germany’s Bundesliga, France’s Ligue 1, and Italy’s Serie A also each surpassed $650 million in spending. Cumulatively, clubs across these five dominant leagues spent an aggregate of $6.5 billion, representing two-thirds of the entire global transfer market’s expenditure.

Despite this monumental investment, early returns suggest a mixed bag of success and underperformance. Data from Transfermarkt indicates that 203 transfers across the Big Five leagues involved fees of at least €10 million. By mid-November, these high-value acquisitions had collectively played only 45% of their teams’ available minutes. A closer examination of even more expensive deals, those exceeding €35 million, showed only a marginal improvement, with these players featuring in 49% of minutes.

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Such substantial financial commitments, even before factoring in player wages, inherently carry high expectations. Clubs anticipate new recruits to play a significant role, ideally exceeding 45% of minutes, and to deliver long-term value beyond the initial 10 to 12 games of a season. While it remains premature to definitively label any transfer as a complete failure or a resounding success, the immediate impact of these early-season performances cannot be recouped. Lost points due to a new midfield’s slow integration or a star striker’s absence are permanent.

With nearly one-third of the season concluded, an analytical review of the initial performance of these transfers provides valuable insight into the European football landscape.

Defining Underperforming Transfers

The assessment of transfer performance, particularly concerning underperformance, often correlates with the magnitude of the transfer fee. A direct metric, "value left on the bench," quantifies a player’s transfer fee multiplied by the percentage of minutes they have not played. This metric naturally skews towards the most expensive acquisitions, as a higher fee means more "value" is unused if a player is sidelined. For example, a €10 million player unused leaves €10 million on the bench, while a €100 million player unused leaves €100 million.

This methodology, while crude, provides a preliminary ranking of significant underperformers based purely on minutes not played, highlighting the immediate financial impact of non-participation. Based on this, the initial top 10 list of "value left on the bench" among Big Five league transfers included:

Alexander Isak, Liverpool: €107.88 million left on the bench
Yoane Wissa, Newcastle: €57.7 million
Nick Woltemade, Newcastle: €46.95 million
Xavi Simons, Tottenham: €43.2 million
Jamie Gittens, Chelsea: €41.83 million
Noni Madueke, Arsenal: €38.7 million
Tyler Dibling, Everton: €37.95 million
Omari Hutchinson, Nottingham Forest: €37.8 million
Florian Wirtz, Liverpool: €37.5 million
Jorrel Hato, Chelsea: €36.71 million

Liverpool’s acquisition of Alexander Isak for a Premier League record fee, given his injury history, exemplifies the risk of such large investments. Isak has only played approximately one-fourth of the available Premier League minutes, leading to a substantial amount of value being sidelined. Similarly, Florian Wirtz, another record signing for Liverpool earlier in the summer, despite playing 70% of minutes, still featured prominently in the initial "value left on the bench" list due to his high fee and perceived underperformance in terms of direct goal contributions.

The Premier League’s dominant spending is reflected in this list, with the vast majority of players originating from English clubs. Ardon Jashari’s €36 million move to AC Milan from Club Brugge, where he sustained a broken leg in late August and played only 1.6% of Serie A minutes, was a notable exception as the only non-Premier League transfer in the top 20 by this metric.

However, a purely minutes-based assessment has limitations. A highly paid player might play fewer minutes but contribute significantly when on the pitch. To address this, an additional metric considers "value provided," using Transfermarkt’s estimated market value multiplied by minutes played. While not a perfect reflection of performance, it offers a standardized way to compare contributions. By combining both "value left on the bench" and "value provided," a more comprehensive ranking of overall transfer performance can be established.

The 10 Least Effective Transfer Deals So Far

This revised ranking combines both the financial outlay on unused minutes and the actual on-field contribution, providing a more nuanced view of summer transfers through mid-November.

10. Ben Doak (Liverpool to Bournemouth), €23.1 million
The transfer of 19-year-old winger Ben Doak from Liverpool to Bournemouth for €23.1 million highlights the inherent risks and long-term bets associated with acquiring promising youth. Doak has featured in only 5% of Bournemouth’s minutes this season, which, while not unexpected for a teenager, represents a significant immediate investment for minimal on-field return. His development path suggests he is several seasons away from his prime, leaving Bournemouth to weigh current expenditure against future potential. The club, currently battling in the lower half of the Premier League table, needs immediate impact, which Doak has not yet provided.

9. Arnaud Kalimuendo (Stade Rennais to Nottingham Forest), €30 million
Arnaud Kalimuendo’s €30 million move to Nottingham Forest has been largely ineffective amidst a turbulent season for the club, which has already seen multiple managerial changes. The 22-year-old center forward has not started a single match and has attempted only three shots in total, an alarming rate of €10 million per shot. Forest’s struggles, including their precarious league position, underscore the urgent need for productive attacking options, a role Kalimuendo has yet to fulfill. His lack of integration points to broader issues within the club’s transfer strategy and on-field cohesion.

8. Fábio Silva (Wolverhampton Wanderers to Borussia Dortmund), €22.5 million
Fábio Silva’s career trajectory continues to be a point of discussion. His €22.5 million transfer to Borussia Dortmund, following a string of loans and an initial €40 million move to Wolves as a teenager, has seen him struggle to establish himself. At 22, Silva has yet to consistently deliver on his early promise, never exceeding eight non-penalty goals in a single season. At Dortmund, currently competing in the upper echelons of the Bundesliga and the Champions League, his limited impact and goal contributions raise questions about his long-term viability at a top-tier club.

7. Omari Hutchinson (Ipswich Town to Nottingham Forest), €40 million
Omari Hutchinson’s €40 million transfer to Nottingham Forest adds to the club’s list of costly, underperforming summer acquisitions. Forest’s total summer outlay on players like Kalimuendo, Hutchinson, Dilane Bakwa, James McAtee, Jair Cunha, Igor Jesus, and Dan Ndoye amounted to €152 million. On average, these players have collectively played only 26% of available Premier League minutes, highlighting a systemic issue with their recruitment and integration. Hutchinson, a winger, has shown flashes but has not consistently earned a starting role or provided the attacking impetus expected for his fee.

6. Tyler Dibling (Southampton to Everton), €40.5 million
Everton’s €40.5 million investment in 18-year-old Tyler Dibling from Southampton represents another significant gamble on youth potential. Dibling, primarily known for his dribbling ability, is seen as a long-term project. However, for a club like Everton, often battling near the relegation zone, such a substantial fee for a player not expected to contribute significantly for several years poses immediate challenges. The comparison to Jérémy Doku, who took until age 23 to consistently perform at an elite level for Manchester City, underscores the patience required, a luxury Everton may not afford given their current league standing and financial pressures.

5. Dario Essugo (Sporting Lisbon to Chelsea), €22.7 million
Chelsea’s record-breaking investments in midfielders Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández have largely delivered, albeit at an astronomical cost. However, their attempts to bolster the midfield further have been plagued by misfortune. Dario Essugo’s €22.7 million transfer from Sporting Lisbon is the latest example. Essugo, 19, has played zero minutes for Chelsea, having undergone thigh surgery in September that is expected to sideline him until at least early 2026. This mirrors the experience of Romeo Lavia, another expensive midfield acquisition who has made only 12 starts across three seasons due to injuries, highlighting a recurring pattern of injury-disrupted midfield signings for the London club.

4. Ardon Jashari (Club Brugge to AC Milan), €36 million
AC Milan’s €36 million acquisition of Ardon Jashari from Club Brugge was dealt a severe blow when the midfielder broke his leg in late August, limiting him to just 1.6% of Serie A minutes. While Jashari’s absence has not significantly impacted Milan’s league performance, largely due to the surprisingly rejuvenated form of 40-year-old Luka Modric in midfield (who leads the league in progressive passes and ranks high in tackles and interceptions), the financial outlay on a player immediately sidelined remains a concern. Milan, currently challenging for European spots, would have benefited from additional midfield depth.

3. Charalambos Kostoulas (Olympiacos to Brighton & Hove Albion), €30 million
Brighton’s €30 million signing of 19-year-old Charalambos Kostoulas from Olympiacos has yielded minimal immediate returns. The young forward has played only 32 Premier League minutes and attempted just two shots, placing him among the least productive expensive attacking transfers. While Brighton is known for its long-term development strategy, the substantial fee for a player with such limited early impact raises questions about the immediate value proposition, especially for a team balancing Premier League ambitions with European commitments.

2. Giovanni Leoni (Parma to Liverpool), €31 million
Giovanni Leoni’s €31 million transfer from Parma to Liverpool has been severely hampered by injury. The defender provided zero Premier League value before tearing his ACL against Southampton in the Carabao Cup in late September, effectively ending his season prematurely. Among players in the dataset who have played zero minutes, Leoni’s transfer fee is the second highest. This injury-forced absence further compounds Liverpool’s disappointing season, which has seen them invest heavily in attacking talent like Isak and Wirtz, whose combined goal and assist output remains lower than that of veteran James Milner. The lack of immediate defensive reinforcement has been a notable issue for Liverpool, who are currently off the pace in the title race.

1. Yoane Wissa (Brentford to Newcastle United), €57.7 million
Unquestionably, Yoane Wissa’s €57.7 million move from Brentford to Newcastle United stands out as the least effective transfer of the summer in its initial phase. Wissa, 29, has not played a single minute for Newcastle since his arrival. This lack of participation is particularly concerning given his age; unlike most other underperformers in the top 25 who are 24 or younger and have significant time to develop, Wissa is at an age where immediate contribution is expected. Newcastle, battling for European qualification and facing injury challenges across their squad, desperately needed an immediate impact player, a role Wissa has been unable to fulfill. His absence has undoubtedly contributed to Newcastle’s inconsistent form through the first third of the season.

The Five Most Effective Transfer Deals So Far

In contrast to the struggles of many high-profile acquisitions, several clubs have successfully integrated new players who have immediately made a significant positive impact. These successful short-term moves often involve players who are older and more established, rather than long-term development prospects. The average age of the top 20 best-rated deals stands at 24.7, significantly older than the 21.1 average for the 20 worst-rated deals, underscoring the value of experience for immediate returns.

5. Martín Zubimendi (Real Sociedad to Arsenal), €70 million
Martín Zubimendi’s €70 million transfer from Real Sociedad to Arsenal has proven to be a shrewd acquisition. The defensive midfielder, a lynchpin for one of the decade’s best defensive teams, has seamlessly integrated into Arsenal’s starting XI, playing nearly every minute of every match. His impact is quantifiable: he has completed 62 line-breaking passes, 24 more than any Arsenal teammate, and ranks among the top players in the league for this metric. For a substantial fee, Zubimendi has delivered immediate, league-winning level performances, providing stability and progression from midfield for an Arsenal side challenging at the top of the Premier League.

4. The Young, Mid-Table Goalkeepers: Djordje Petrovic (Chelsea to Bournemouth) and Caoimhín Kelleher (Liverpool to Brentford)
The minutes-based evaluation system often disproportionately rewards or penalizes goalkeepers due to their consistent selection. However, the transfers of Djordje Petrovic (26, €28.9 million from Chelsea to Bournemouth) and Caoimhín Kelleher (25, €14.8 million from Liverpool to Brentford) represent excellent value. Both goalkeepers have played every minute of every Premier League match for their respective clubs. While it is still early to fully assess their shot-stopping performance in depth, both Bournemouth and Brentford appear to have secured their starting goalkeepers for at least the next five years. Petrovic has provided a commanding presence for Bournemouth, while Kelleher has offered stability for Brentford, both clubs benefiting from their consistent, high-volume contributions.

3. Álvaro Carreras (Benfica to Real Madrid), €50 million
Real Madrid’s €50 million acquisition of Álvaro Carreras from Benfica has unexpectedly solidified their left-back position. While much attention was on the potential arrival of Trent Alexander-Arnold on the right, it is the 22-year-old Carreras who has become an indispensable starter, playing 99.3% of all LaLiga minutes. His impact extends beyond mere presence; he has completed 108 progressive passes, significantly more than any other Real Madrid player (the next highest is 72). Carreras has established himself as one of the best passers in his position globally, contributing significantly to Real Madrid’s attacking fluidity and defensive solidity in their pursuit of the LaLiga title.

2. Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford to Manchester United), €75 million
Bryan Mbeumo’s €75 million transfer from Brentford to Manchester United, initially viewed with some skepticism due to his age (26) and United’s long-term aspirations, has been an immediate success. Mbeumo was a proven Premier League performer, having excelled in various attacking roles over six seasons at Brentford. His consistent output and versatility made him a reliable short-term bet. For Manchester United, currently aiming to climb the Premier League table, Mbeumo has played approximately 97% of minutes and is delivering just over 0.5 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes. This sustained performance projects to around 17 non-penalty goals and three assists for the season, making him a crucial attacking asset and validating United’s decision for immediate impact.

1. Lucas Chevalier (Lille to Paris Saint-Germain), €40 million
Lucas Chevalier’s €40 million move from Lille to Paris Saint-Germain stands as the most effective transfer of the summer thus far. The 22-year-old goalkeeper is one of only six players in the dataset to have played every minute of every game, and crucially, he is the sole player among them doing so for the defending European champions. Chevalier has provided an immediate and commanding presence between the posts for PSG, demonstrating the consistency and quality required at the highest level. While the long-term question of whether he will be PSG’s definitive No. 1 remains, his faultless early performances have been instrumental in PSG’s strong start to the season across domestic and European competitions.