Early Season Shocks: Six NBA Teams, Including Lakers and Bucks, Shatter Preseason Projections

More than two weeks into the National Basketball Association (NBA) season, several teams have defied conventional wisdom, establishing strong starts that contradict initial expectations. While traditional powerhouses like the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, and New Orleans Pelicans have struggled to find their rhythm, a distinct group of franchises has emerged, exceeding varying levels of preseason skepticism. These teams, often overlooked or outright underestimated, have demonstrated an early-season prowess that suggests they might be poised for more significant impacts than initially projected.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Despite boasting arguably the greatest player of all time in LeBron James and a perennial All-NBA talent in Luka Dončić, the Los Angeles Lakers entered the season facing considerable doubt regarding their overall ceiling in the competitive Western Conference. Preseason predictions from many sports analysts, including five out of eight staffers at CBS Sports, placed them firmly in the play-in tournament picture rather than among the elite. The roster, beyond its two superstars and promising guard Austin Reaves, appeared thin on paper. Further complicating matters was the unavailability of James, who is recovering from sciatica and will turn 41 in December, and Dončić, who missed four of the team’s first nine games due to a combination of finger and leg injuries, as well as scheduled rest.

These significant absences should have crippled the Lakers’ early season prospects. Instead, the team has rallied to a 7-2 record, including a five-game winning streak and an impressive 3-1 mark without Dončić in the lineup. Their early offensive efficiency ranks fifth in the league, complemented by a second-place standing in effective field goal percentage (eFG). Austin Reaves, despite missing two recent games with a groin injury, has been a revelation, delivering a 51-point performance in a victory over the Kings, 41 points in a home loss to the Blazers, and a decisive 28-point effort, capped by a game-winner, against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The latter contest also introduced the broader NBA audience to Jake LaRavia, an offseason acquisition who has quickly made an impact. The Lakers extended their winning streak with a nail-biting home victory over Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. Perhaps their most impressive outing to date was against the Portland Trail Blazers, where head coach JJ Redick opted to rest Dončić and Reaves on the second night of a back-to-back road trip. The Lakers secured the win with a starting lineup featuring Rui Hachimura, Dalton Knecht, DeAndre Ayton, Marcus Smart, and LaRavia, highlighted by Nick Smith Jr.’s 25 points in 27 minutes. DeAndre Ayton remarked on the team’s newfound professionalism and depth after the Blazers win, stating, "It’s become a thing in our routine, to approach the game the right way with some professionalism, and it’s starting to spread. Guys deep in the bench showing up with 25 points. That’s legit. That’s big time, to be honest. No Luka. No LeBron. No Reaves. That’s something you just have to take a deep breath on and wonder if what we’re doing back here is really fundamentally sound." Given the significant player rotations, this 7-2 start represents a remarkable achievement for Los Angeles.

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2. Portland Trail Blazers

While a recent loss to the Lakers tempered some of their early momentum, the Portland Trail Blazers have quietly established themselves as one of the league’s most surprising teams, posting a 5-3 record that few outside the Pacific Northwest anticipated. Their recent triumph over the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, despite the Thunder missing three starters from their championship roster, underscored Portland’s resilience and depth. The Blazers’ ability to capitalize on the Thunder’s reliance on their talented bench for a loss speaks volumes about their current competitive spirit. Last season, many analysts suggested a full rebuild for Portland, yet the team actively pursued competitiveness. The offseason acquisition of Jrue Holiday, following what was perceived as a down year with the Boston Celtics, initially raised questions, particularly given the Celtics’ salary-dump motives. However, Holiday has swiftly dispelled doubts, performing like the two-way star he has been throughout his career. Deni Avdija has also seen a significant increase in his scoring, averaging nearly eight points more per game than last season. The Blazers play at a blistering pace, ranking second in the league in that category, and have established themselves as a formidable defensive unit, currently eighth in defensive rating, with Toumani Camara leading their relentless effort on that end of the floor. This blend of speed, defensive tenacity, and unexpected individual performances has made the Trail Blazers a challenging opponent, embodying a perfect "try-hard" identity that belies their preseason projections.

3. Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks entered the season surrounded by a cloud of pessimism, even after securing Myles Turner in an offseason trade that reportedly irked Indiana Pacers fans. The controversial decision to waive and stretch Damian Lillard’s contract, incurring a $22.5 million annual cap hit for the next five years for a player now in Portland, further complicated roster construction. The prevailing narrative centered on when, not if, Giannis Antetokounmpo would demand a trade, a storyline he did little to quell by stating he was "locked into" the Bucks for the current season but reserved the right to change his mind in "six, seven months." This context suggested another middle-of-the-pack finish in the Eastern Conference and potentially a fourth consecutive first-round playoff exit before Antetokounmpo’s departure.

However, the Bucks have defied these bleak predictions, commencing the season with a solid 5-3 record. Their offense ranks eighth in the league, largely fueled by Antetokounmpo’s dominant individual performances. He is averaging 32.3 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game, with an exceptional 70.7 eFG and a staggering 39.2 Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Beyond Antetokounmpo, the team has uncovered unexpected production. Point guard play was a significant concern, exacerbated when early favorite Kevin Porter Jr. suffered a knee injury just nine minutes into the season opener. Stepping into this void is Ryan Rollins, a player who averaged just 6.1 points and 1.9 assists in his first three NBA seasons. Since being inserted as the starting point guard, Rollins has averaged 16.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.9 steals, all while shooting an impressive 62% true shooting percentage. This unexpectedly strong start has allowed the Bucks to remain relevant and, crucially, demonstrate to Antetokounmpo that the team retains its competitive aspirations.

4. Chicago Bulls

With six wins in their first seven games, the Chicago Bulls have surprised many by currently sitting atop the Eastern Conference standings. While they showed flashes of potential by winning 15 of their final 20 games last season, few anticipated such a dominant beginning to the new campaign. Josh Giddey has been the team’s primary catalyst, consistently averaging close to a triple-double. Despite the absence of speedy guard Coby White due to a calf strain, the Bulls have maintained an aggressive offensive approach, leading the league in drives and points in transition per game. They also rank second in points in the paint and third in three-point percentage, reflecting a modern, efficient shot selection that places them eighth in offensive rating and points per game. The Bulls have secured significant early victories against Eastern Conference rivals, including the Hawks, Magic, Knicks, and, most notably, the Philadelphia 76ers. Their latest triumph against the Sixers showcased remarkable resilience, as they overcame a 24-point deficit at home. Giddey orchestrated the dramatic fourth-quarter comeback, finding Nikola Vucevic in the corner for the game-winning shot, securing the Bulls’ first lead of the game. Giddey’s performance in that game, combined with his previous outing, marked back-to-back triple-doubles, a feat last achieved by Michael Jordan for the Bulls in 1988, underscoring the exceptional nature of their current run.

5. Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers, despite recent road losses to Chicago and Cleveland, have recorded five wins in their first eight games, representing a significant improvement over last season’s challenging campaign. The previous year saw the Sixers win a mere 24 games, largely due to extensive injuries to key players Joel Embiid and Paul George, who combined for only 60 appearances, ultimately leading to a late-season tank job that allowed them to draft VJ Edgecombe. This season, with George yet to play and Embiid on a minutes restriction, the Sixers have leaned heavily on a dynamic group of young guards and wings, including Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre, and Edgecombe. The team’s most effective three-man combinations consistently feature variations of these players. Tyrese Maxey has been particularly instrumental, scoring the most points in the first seven games of a season in franchise history and currently leading the entire league in points per game at 33.5. This early-season performance signals a substantial positive shift for the franchise.

6. Miami Heat

The Miami Heat endured a difficult previous season, marked by public drama surrounding Jimmy Butler and a humbling four-game sweep by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. Key players Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo struggled significantly in that series. The new season began with further adversity, as Herro underwent ankle surgery approximately a month before the start and is expected to remain sidelined until at least mid-November. Despite these challenges, and even with the addition of Norm Powell after a career season with the Clippers, preseason predictions from sports analysts, including the entire CBS Sports staff, did not project Miami to finish higher than a play-in spot in the Eastern Conference.

However, the Heat have once again defied low expectations, proving difficult to contain. They currently rank eighth in net rating and fourth in points per game. Early in the season, Bam Adebayo lauded head coach Erik Spoelstra’s "new offensive approach," which emphasizes a read-and-react philosophy over rigid play-calling, fostering continuous ball movement. This fast, free-flowing style has propelled the Heat to the top of the league in pace. Adebayo and Powell have been central to this system, combining for an average of 43 points per game. Additionally, Jamie Jacquez Jr. has emerged as a key contributor, averaging 17.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in 29 minutes per game, following a sophomore season that saw some regression. While Adebayo’s recent foot injury, which limited him to eight minutes in a game against Denver, presents a new concern for the franchise, the Heat’s early success underscores Spoelstra’s consistent ability to maximize the potential of his roster, regardless of personnel challenges.